NASCAR Cup Series Champion Betting Tips: 3 Keys to Consider
NASCAR is North America’s premier stock car racing series, featuring 36 races across multiple track types.
There are several common trends to remember when betting on NASCAR Cup Series champions. While the format for crowning a champ has changed several times, similar trends can be applied to breaking down the championship contenders over the last decade.
How the NASCAR Playoffs Work
Since 2014, NASCAR has implemented a format that breaks the year into 26 regular-season races and then a 10-race playoff to decide the title. Sixteen drivers qualify for the postseason, with four eliminated in each of the opening four race rounds based on point totals.
A win automatically gets you both into the postseason and moves drivers to the next round of the playoffs. The three rounds boil down to the four eligible drivers after the third round, who move on to the season's last race.
The race within a race is between that quartet with the highest finisher among the group claiming the crown.
As drivers navigate the gauntlet of the grueling season, three keys have historically led to winning the championship.
Characteristics of a NASCAR Champion
Wins Matter More Than Ever
The driver with the most wins throughout the season isn’t automatically the champ. However, winning is the best avenue for success, as they say.
Since the 2010 season, championship driver win totals have been impressive. Joey Logano’s 2018 title saw him win three times, the lowest number over the last 15 years. Excluding Logano's unique 2018 season, the average is just under five victories.
A win early in the regular season guarantees an automatic playoff berth and relieves a lot of pressure. Victories during playoff rounds carry advancement and provide opportunities for teams to try different setups or nuances.
The bottom line is that drivers capable of multiple win seasons, while not a lock, still are the best bets on betting sites to win the title.
Consistency Is Crucial
Equally important is regularly staying and finishing near the front of the field. Points are distributed to the top-10 finishes at the end of the two stages inside a race that leads up to the final leg to the checkered flag. Racking up those valuable markers is a safety net for drivers who don’t win.
Six of the last 10 champions have put more than 20 top-10 finishes in the books, with high-water marks in 2017 and 2018 when Martin Truex Jr. and Logano scored 26 each year.
Every position on the track counts for a point, and what might seem like a meaningless eleventh-place finish in June could come back to haunt a driver later on in the playoff picture.
Tony Stewart’s 2011 championship over Carl Edwards went on a tiebreaker because the duo was tied in the point standings. However, Stewart had more wins than Edwards, which was the deciding factor. But had Edwards just garnered one additional position and/or point during the season, he would have won the crown.
Experience and Durability Win Titles
There’s an adage in racing that “to finish first, you must first finish.” A driver with multiple DNFs (did not finish) marks next to his name will often not be someone in championship contention.
While mechanical failures are rarer than ever in today’s NASCAR because of engine reliability and the resilience in cars’ construction, there are still ways not to finish a race. Accidents top the list, which are not always the fault of a driver who is eliminated from the competition.
However, avoiding situations that could easily turn into contact and lead to a wreck is essential. That’s why betting on veterans and their experience is vital.
Over the last 10 seasons, the propensity for accidents has come at various ends of the schedule spectrum: the three shortest tracks on the slate and the two largest.
The tight quarters of short tracks (Martinsville, Bristol, and Richmond) racing produce much closer racing and an increased potential for contact and damage.
Conversely, the high-speed restrictor plate racing on the huge speedways (Daytona and Talladega) is a breeding ground for what’s known as “The Big One,” a multi-car accident that breaks out when one driver breaks loose and triggers a chain reaction wreck of cars racing close to one another.
Drivers with high average finishes at both disciplines of tracks are better positioned to remain in the championship chase.
Final Thoughts on NASCAR Championship Futures
Betting on the NASCAR Cup Series isn’t just picking the fastest driver. Look for someone with a strong track record, steady performance week after week, and the discipline to stay out of trouble.
The best drivers don’t just win races—they know how to manage an entire season.
