NFL Playoffs Betting: Tips & Strategy to Consider

Back Underdogs

The Wild Card Round has consistently been the most volatile week of the NFL playoffs. Unlike the Divisional Round, where spreads are often accurate, Wild Card spreads can misrepresent true team strength.

From 2017 to 2023, underdogs went 16–11 ATS and pulled off 13 outright upsets in 27 games. In 2020, all four road teams covered, and three won outright.

Don’t be afraid to bet on road teams or underdogs—they win here more than in any other playoff round. Teasing underdogs up or parlaying short favorites on the moneyline can be profitable, especially if you're unsure about total volatility but expect a close game.

Road Teams See Success

Unlike the Divisional Round, where the top-seeded teams play at home after a bye, Wild Card home teams are often division winners with weaker records or teams only marginally better than the 5th or 6th seed.

Since 2004, road teams have been above .500 ATS in Wild Card games, so it pays to evaluate matchups, quarterback play, and coaching in this round.

Third Time is Rarely the Charm

The Wild Card Round often features rematches between division rivals. Since 2003, teams that lost both regular-season meetings are 5–15 SU and 6–14 ATS in the playoff rematch.

You should fade teams that lost twice to their opponent during the regular season, regardless of seeding or game location.

Expect Lower-Scoring Games

Familiar opponents, like those in the same conference, typically result in closer, lower-scoring games.

Since 2015, unders have hit in about 60% of Wild Card games that feature division rivals. Target the under when divisional foes clash—especially in cold-weather stadiums.

Home-Field Advantage Matters

The home-field advantage matters more in the Divisional Round of the playoffs than in any other week. For starters, teams with the home-field advantage in this game didn't have to play in the previous week. They are typically well-rested and healthy.

These teams are also almost always better, as they finished among the top two in the conference during the regular season. That is why it is tough to bet against the home team in Round 2 of the playoffs.

Historically, home teams hold a 154–62 SU record in this round dating back to 1970, equating to a .713 winning percentage. Since 2010, home teams have been 40–16 straight up (SU), with a winning percentage of .714. 

Expect a Slow Start From the Home Team

While beating home teams in the Divisional Round is hard, that doesn't mean they will always play perfect games. In fact, despite the quality of teams on the field, many of these games tend to start sloppily.

Most teams that secure a first-round bye haven't played a meaningful game in several weeks, and that often means some slow starts as the teams shake off the rust. Since 2003, home teams off a bye are 33–42–1 ATS in the Divisional Round. Specifically, home favorites of 7 or more points coming off a bye have a 17–24–1 ATS record.

Consider taking the under in the first quarter or half as the home team gets back up to speed.

Avoid Picking Too Many Upsets

If an upset is going to happen in the playoffs, it will likely occur in the Wild Card round. As for the Divisional Round, there are typically too many things working against the road team (almost always the underdog) to pull off the upset.

That doesn't mean it never happens, but don't count on more than one or two to occur during this weekend. If you are going to parlay games during this week, it's okay to pick the favorites on the moneyline. Most of the time, you'll be glad that you did.

Bet On the Better Quarterback

Anytime I bet on a game, the tiebreaker is always "which quarterback do I trust the most?"

The playoff pressure often hits less experienced quarterbacks hardest: First-time playoff starting quarterbacks are below .500 ATS and struggle more than veterans.

With the NFL being such a passing league, I always want the best quarterback on my side, especially on a stage like the Divisional Round of the playoffs. In QB matchups, lean toward playoff-tested signal-callers, especially when the spread is less than a touchdown.

Only Use Home-Field Advantage as a Tiebreaker

In the Divisional Round, home-field advantage makes a significant difference as the home team gets a week off and plays a lower seed. In the championship round, home-field advantage is less beneficial as both sides had to play in the previous week.

Having home-field advantage is also less likely to matter when the two best teams in the conference are playing one another. Still, if you need a tiebreaker when betting on these two games, go with the home team, as they win about 60% of championship games. (However, against the spread, their performance is closer to 50%.)

Don't Be Afraid of Underdogs

By this point in the season, all four teams are outstanding. We rarely see a Wild Card team reach this stage in the playoffs, as it would require multiple upsets. You will see some fairly close lines because these teams are typically evenly matched.

However, if a line exceeds the standard three points for the home team, consider betting the underdog to cover the spread in this round. (Home-field advantage in the NFL is traditionally regarded as worth about 3 points, and, since 2000, underdogs have covered the spread in about 55% of these matchups.)

These games tend to be coin flips, and getting anything more than three points is a bet worth taking.

Pay Attention to Weather Reports

Due to the Conference Championship round falling in the middle of January, weather can often be a factor in these games, especially on the East Coast. Some of the most unforgettable championship games have occurred in the cold and snow.

If a team is unprepared or used to playing in such conditions, it can flip a game. The line will usually reflect any harsh weather, but check the conditions of the games before betting on a side or the total points scored.

Consider the Quarterback You Are Betting On

Like any other week, quarterback play will likely decide the game's outcome. On one of the biggest stages in all professional sports, choosing the "right" quarterback in this game will be much more critical.

Back the quarterback that gives you the most confidence when deciding which team to bet on. Changing your pick may be in your best interest if you like a team’s chances but can't envision its quarterback rising to the occasion under the brightest of lights.

Explore Prop Bets

One of the only negatives about this weekend is that there are only two games to bet on and watch all weekend. Consequently, there are only so many traditional bets to make.

That’s why this is one of my favorite weeks of the year to bet on player and team props. With fewer games, picking your favorite player props is easier.

Do you think your team's kicker will make a long kick? Depending on your betting sites, there may be a prop for that. Will your running back exceed 75 yards rushing? There may be a prop for that, too. Find a few of your favorite prop bets and watch them hit during this fantastic football weekend.