NFL Betting Guide: How to Bet on the NFL
The NFL (National Football League) is one of the most popular sports to bet on in the U.S. A study in 2023 estimated that 25% of all Americans bet on the NFL. If you want to get in on the action and start betting on America’s most popular league, this page is for you.
This detailed NFL betting guide covers the fundamentals and highlights the most popular wagers. We’ll also provide top NFL betting tips to help you take your wagering to the next level.
Before learning how to bet on the NFL, let’s go over some common terms that you will see:
- Vig: This is short for vigorish, essentially the house edge. Vig is incorporated into every bet. Think of it as a small fee the sportsbook charges for using its services. It’s also often called “juice.”
- Cover: When you bet against the spread, you are betting on the margin of victory. If a team wins by more than the spread, they have “covered” it.
- Push: A push is essentially a tie that invalidates your bet. It doesn’t mean you lose, though. If your bet results in a push, you get your money back.
- Even Money: A bet that pays out exactly as much as you wager is called an even money bet. In American odds, even money bets are listed at +100.
Note: All examples use U.S. dollars and American odds (e.g., -110), though your betting site may display prices in decimal (1.91) or fractional (10/11) formats depending on your region. The same betting principles apply across currencies and odds styles.
Understanding NFL Betting Odds
Let’s start by going over the NFL odds format. By default, U.S. sportsbooks use the American odds system, which uses positive and negative numbers to represent the value of a bet.
Here's an example:
If you look at moneyline odds, you will usually see one team with positive odds (the underdog) and one with negative odds (the favorite). Positive and negative numbers in American odds relate to $100 bets. For negative numbers, the odds refer to how much you have to wager to win $100. Positive numbers tell you how much money you will win from a $100 bet.
In American odds, the lower the number, the smaller the return. So, the team with lower odds is the favorite to win. In the case of totals (over/under) bets, the side with the lower odds is the most likely outcome.
Types of NFL Bets
The NFL betting market is one of the most diverse, with NFL games offering hundreds of unique bets each week. Betting sites provide game lines that cover the moneyline, point spreads, and totals, which are the basic NFL odds for a win, a handicap, and the total points scored. Each of these markets offers different value to bettors, depending on their strategies.
Live betting (in-play betting) is when you bet on a game in progress. This differs from traditional pre-game sports betting, but the principles and bets available are still the same. The three traditional betting markets—moneyline, points spread, and totals bets—are also the most common live bets. However, player and team props are also available for live betting.
Here are some of the most common types of NFL football bets you’ll find:
The Basics: Moneyline, Point Spread, Totals
Moneyline bets are wagers on who you think will win the game. For example, if you put a moneyline bet on the Patriots, they have to win for you to win your bet. Moneyline bets are the most straightforward types of NFL bets. This is one of the reasons why they are also one of the most popular NFL bets.
When you place a point spread bet, you essentially bet on the margin of victory. Say that the Seahawks are playing the 49ers, and they are 6.5-point favorites. The Seahawks would have to win by 7 points or more to win “against the spread.” If the Seahawks lose or win by 6 points or fewer, they have not covered the spread, and you will lose your bet.
Total bets refer to wagers on the combined number of points scored by both teams in a single game. They are also called over/under bets because sportsbooks set a line for the predicted total number of points to be scored in the game. You then wager on whether the combined score will exceed that number.
Prop Bets
Prop bets are designed so that bettors can enjoy the NFL differently. They are wagers on some aspect of a game unrelated to the result. Usually, these wagers include NFL player props and NFL team props.
For example, a bet on how many touchdowns Patrick Mahomes will throw in an NFL game is a player prop. So are “anytime touchdown” scorers. A team prop would be the number of points a team scores in a quarter.
It's easy to get bogged down and overcomplicate your betting system. However, you can simplify things in the player performance markets, especially with prop betting, where you can focus on individual player stats or specific game events rather than the broader outcome.
Touchdown Markets
The simplest of these markets is the “touchdown” market. The shortest odds are always on the running backs (usually the safest bet to score a touchdown), followed by the wide receivers, then any other player on the team. You'll usually find the longest odds available on the tight ends and the quarterback. This is because he'll generally be the one handing off to the running backs and feeding the passes out to the wide receivers.
Once you get into the stats, particularly later in the season, it makes more sense to move beyond the touchdown market and look at NFL markets that cover the entire game. The “passing yards” and “receiving yards” markets interest stats fans.Passing Yards
These are specifically available for quarterbacks. Oddsmakers project a quarterback's passing yards in a given matchup. Depending on previous performances against that specific team, the type of defense, and other season-long trends, you can bet on whether the QB will surpass that total amount.
Pass Success Rate or Interceptions
In addition to examining past performance when looking at the “passing yards” market, other stats worth examining are the “pass success rate” market and the “interceptions” market. These give you a better idea of the quality of a quarterback's passing, a trait that's as valuable as the strength of his arm.
Receptions
The supporting stats of note here are total receptions (passes caught) and receptions of 20+ yards; both are a good gauge of consistency in the “receiving yards” market.
The main drawback with these markets is the low odds. The margins are tight, and the stats are there for all to see. If you get confident and are not averse to some risk, you can always build a parlay to boost your odds.
Bettors must be mindful of several factors before placing NFL prop bets:
- Players Sitting: Not all players will play 17 games. New bettors often place too many Over futures because they assume a player will play a full schedule.
- Mind the Division: Know what division teams play in, as certain divisions tend to play different styles of football. For example, it may not be wise to bet on a quarterback leading the league in passing if he plays in a traditionally strong defensive division.
- Playing Conditions: Note which teams play in open-roof stadiums. Unpredictable weather, especially later in the season, can negatively impact passing and rushing totals. Wind, snow, and rain are all factors that can help or hurt your offensive prop bet.
- Quality of Team: New bettors should also consider the individual team's success. If you are betting on a player to lead the league in rushing, you likely want to find a team's RB1. Similarly, you'll want to find a team in the playoff hunt that won't be resting starters by the end of the season. These scenarios should be considered before placing an NFL player prop bet.
While it’s always fun to place player bets, it’s important to remember that betting sites generally limit the amount of action on player bets. Books want to make player prop bets fun, but they don’t want to offer the same rewards as other bets on the board.
Parlays & Teasers
Also known as accumulators and multis, parlays combine multiple wagers into one bet. Most sportsbooks don’t have any limits on the number of “legs” (individual bets) you include in one parlay. We wouldn’t recommend going above five legs, though. If a single leg loses, you lose the entire bet.
Futures
Futures bets are wagers on anything larger than one game. We also have to mention futures bets. Wagers on who will win the Super Bowl, win their division, and who will win league awards are some of the most popular NFL bets placed every year.
You can also wager on the number of wins a team will have in a season, who will win a specific division, NFL award winners, and more.
Strategies for Successful NFL Betting
Understanding the Impact of Key Players
There are 53 players on every NFL roster. Only 11 can be on the field at one time. You don’t need to know all their names, but you should learn every team’s key players. In other words, the players who can decide a game.
For almost every team, one of these players will be their starting quarterback. Quarterbacks touch the ball on almost every play. Every team’s offense runs through its quarterback in one way or another. Knowing a quarterback’s tendencies, health status, and a little about their team’s offense can help you make informed bets.
Beyond the quarterback, the key players will depend on the team. You should always read a little about the football team you want to bet on to determine who their key players are. From there, you can assess whether the player is healthy or whether they have what it takes to make a difference in the next game.
Bet With Your Head, Not Your Heart
Live betting sites provide some of the most fun and engaging ways to bet on the NFL. This is because the odds change depending on what’s happening in the game. However, because it’s so exciting, live betting is also riskier since you are more likely to have your emotions involved. The best way to bet on the NFL live is to keep a level head and observe the odds. You must also be decisive and place your bet before the odds change again.
The easiest way to lose money betting on the NFL is by letting your emotions dictate how you bet. Betting with your heart, especially on your favorite team, can seem attractive, but it almost always ends badly. It will in the long run if it doesn’t the first time.
Your bankroll refers to the amount of money you have available to wager. A system to manage your bankroll can help you make your money last longer and bet with your head. If you have a system in place, you are less likely to alter your betting patterns due to your emotions.
Understand How International Travel Impact NFL Teams
The NFL has ramped up its efforts to expand support outside the U.S. Thanks to the NFL International Series, regular-season games are now played in places like London and Mexico City. But what does that mean for NFL bettors and their approach to the market?
- Europe: Playing in places like London and Munich is tough for NFL teams. The time difference throws everything off, and the body clock adjustment isn’t easy. With games starting early by U.S. standards, it’s no surprise that teams can struggle to get into gear, especially after the long flight.
- North & South America: Compared to London, games in Mexico and Canada are much more familiar territory. The time zone difference is minimal, and the proximity of teams in Texas and the northern U.S. to these countries means fans are already invested, making for smoother logistics and fewer surprises for bettors.
- Australia: The time gap becomes a major hurdle once the NFL hits places like Asia and Australia. The impact on teams and fans is significant, with time differences ranging from 8 to 15 hours. On top of that, these regions are less familiar with NFL play, so bettors can face more uncertainty, with market movements and outcomes harder to predict.
Despite the league's massive presence among top betting markets, the NFL's heavy U.S. concentration has limited its ability to reach the same worldwide betting interest as the "other football." Thankfully, when the NFL heads overseas, interest spikes, meaning more interaction and potential for betting value.
Do Your Research
If you take one thing from this guide on how to bet on NFL games, it should be this: Do your research to make informed bets.
Understanding the factors determining whether a team plays well could make you a lot of money. Factors you should consider when researching include injuries, home-field advantage, the weather, team form, and previous matchups between the two teams.
Research also includes comparing odds. Betting sites offer different odds for the same bet. Comparing the odds at multiple books allows you to find the betting site with the best odds, which means a bigger return for you. It might not seem like a big difference, but consistently looking for the best NFL odds can pay off in the long run.
Common Mistakes to Avoid in NFL Betting
Now that you know some of the best NFL betting strategies, here are some things to avoid when betting on NFL football for the first time:
Overvaluing Favorites
A lot of new bettors start betting by only backing favorites. In theory, this makes sense. After all, the favorites are going to win more often than not. Otherwise, they wouldn’t be favorites. However, the problem with this strategy is that it’s often not worth it. For example, if you put $100 on a team that is -500 favorites, you’re putting up $100 for the chance to win just $20.
Betting Without a Strategy
Whether a layered bankroll management system or a basic betting strategy, you must have some guiding principles to stick by when you bet. Doing this can help you get the most bang for your buck. It can also stop you from betting with your emotions instead of your head.
Chasing Losses
The worst thing you can do when you’re on a losing streak is to put a lot of money on an underdog or a big parlay. These bets have long odds for a reason. That’s because they are not likely to hit. If you’re on a losing streak, the best thing you can do is stop betting, assess your football betting strategies, and try again once you’re ready.
Ignoring Value Betting
It’s no secret that sports betting is designed for the betting site to win. With the vig incorporated into every bet, the house always wins. It doesn’t have to be like that, though. Value betting refers to finding bets that are undervalued by the oddsmakers.
Not out seeking these bets is one of the biggest mistakes new bettors make because it requires some effort and a little bit of knowledge about the sport itself. Trust us, though—the effort is worth it.
An Overview of the NFL
The NFL is the most popular sport in the US. There are 32 teams divided across two conferences and eight divisions.
All NFL teams play 17 games across 18 weeks of the regular season, running from September to February. The teams play other teams in their divisions twice, with games against teams from different divisions and the conference sprinkled in. All this culminates in a 14-team playoff of the best teams in the league, with one team eventually winning the Super Bowl.
NFL betting sites offer 100+ bets on every regular-season and playoff game.
