How Long Will Boris Johnson Last as UK Prime Minister?
Boris Johnson is on course to remain UK prime minister for another two years at least, according to online betting sites, after enjoying a surge in popularity over recent weeks.
Johnson has been in charge of the country during its biggest crisis since the second world war but appears to have ridden the worst of the storm as we head towards the summer.
Coronavirus has killed more than 128,000 people in the UK, with 4.5m confirmed cases of the disease. The UK has one of the worst death rates in Europe yet Johnson’s popularity has steadily risen since the government delivered on its promise to exit the EU in the New Year.
In May Johnson’s approval rating lifted above his disproval rating (48%) for the first time since his return from hospital in April 2020 after his own bout with Covid-19. And the bookmakers reckon the 56-year-old is a long way off leaving office.
Boris Johnson Latest Odds
According to Paddy Power, Johnson is now 7/1 to lose his job as UK prime minister in 2021.
That price has steadily risen as the year has rolled on and, with an 81-seat majority in the Commons, it appears unlikely the PM will be ousted by his own party before next year.
Indeed, the UK politics betting odds suggest Johnson could well stick it out until the next election. He is as short as 1/14 to exit No 10 in 2022 or later, and 4/11 to leave the following year.
The next general election is not scheduled until the summer of 2024, yet the Conservatives could look to trigger a snap election before then – a challenge Labour would likely take up.
What’s Gone Right For Johnson?
Despite the turmoil at the top of government over the past 18 months, Johnson is still resonating with the British public.
Delivering Brexit came hand-in-hand with January’s launch of the Covid-19 vaccine roll-out which to date has fully immunised 25m people with a second dose.
He also rode the media storm over his supposed “let the bodies pile high in their thousands” comments and escaped the worst of sleaze allegations made towards the Conservative party.
In May the Tories captured a remarkable by-election result in Hartlepool and outperformed Labour at local elections.
Indeed, even Dominic Cummings’ revelations about his working relationship with Johnson and the machinations inside No 10 have done nothing to stem the popularity of the premier.
Trouble On The Horizon?
Johnson’s secret marriage to Carrie Symonds has also distracted media attention in recent days but there could be tricky times ahead for the former London mayor.
The UK is expected to come out of Covid restrictions on 21 June but a rise in the number of infections recently has led scientists to warn against lifting social distancing rules.
The UK is also to host the G7 summit in mid-June, where Johnson will attempt to woo a sceptical US government under Joe Biden to land a trade deal. And education is back on the agenda as critics hit out at his plans for a £1.4bn schools catch-up fund, calling the move “cheap”.
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