How Long Will Boris Johnson Last as UK Prime Minister?

How Long Will Boris Johnson Last as UK Prime Minister?
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Boris Johnson's polling figures continue to get worse and according to political betting sites, he has a one-in-three chance of losing his job as UK prime minister next year.

Fresh approval ratings from YouGov suggest 64% of the country are now dissatisfied with how the PM is running the country.

A sleaze scandal that has engulfed Westminster has already cost Johnson plenty of political capital due to his initial insistence that the government rewrite the rulebook on parliamentary standards, before U-turning on the decision.

Further issues surrounding supply chains, a wide-spread energy crisis, rising coronavirus rates and an impending economic squeeze over the winter are further impacting on the government’s approval ratings.

So much so that Labour are now level with the Tories at 37 points apiece in the opinion polls.

 

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Boris Johnson Latest Odds

The latest odds on betting sites about when Johnson will leave his post at No 10 don’t make for good reading for the PM. According to Unibet, Johnson remains at 2/1 to exit Downing Street at some point in 2022. That is supposedly a 33% chance of him being ousted.

Johnson, however, may prove tougher than the betting odds suggest. After all, the man who booted Theresa May out of office and pledged to ‘Get Brexit Done’ still has the loyal backing of Brexiteers and, crucially, an 80-seat majority in the House of Commons.

That majority has aided Johnson in his pushing through numerous pieces of legislation – most recently controversial changes to funding social care.

However, the mood of the nation can sometimes catch the PM out. Having tried to let Owen Paterson off the hook for his alleged lobbying within Parliament, Johnson only U-turned once the newspapers went on the attack.

The 57-year-old is conscious of looking out of touch with the British public – something he had to address last summer when footballer Marcus Rashford shamed him into providing free meals for underprivileged children during school holidays.



Who Could Replace Johnson?

Johnson is facing something of a winter of reckoning as his party buckles under sleaze allegations. Last winter the PM effectively cancelled Christmas for households across Britain when announcing restrictions just days before 25 December.

This year the PM is adamant that there won’t be a need to move onto ‘Plan B’ in regards to social distancing. But Covid rates in Europe have skyrocketed past the UK’s persistently high figures, and there is now concern that the worst of winter is still to come.

The Conservatives’ polling figures survived last winter on the back of the successful vaccine roll-out and the deliverance of Brexit. But these next few months could be difficult for the PM, especially if death rates hit the same level as January 2021.

Were the PM to either quit or be ousted by his own party then chancellor Rishi Sunak appears the most likely candidate to take over. The former banker is 2/1 to be the next Conservative leader, while Michael Gove remains out at 6/1.

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