Will Boris Johnson Be Suspended? And What Ex-PM Could Do Next
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Boris Johnson is expected to avoid being suspended over his role in the Partygate scandal that brought down his government.
However, according to betting sites, the former prime minister may not remain in politics for much longer.
Johnson is facing a probe into whether he “knowingly” or “recklessly” misled Parliament over lockdown parties held in Downing Street while he was in office.
The former PM is facing a grilling by a select committee set up to investigate the parties, and determine whether he mailed Parliament over his statements.
An MP who is found to have misled the House could face suspension or even lose their seat.
Johnson appeared in bullish mood in the days leading up to his committee interview, and released his own 52-page document of evidence, rebutting claims he purposefully broke lockdown rules and lied about it afterwards.
But whether he survives the committee’s grilling and subsequent vote in the Commons remains to be seen.
Prime minister Rishi Sunak has already said MPs will not be whipped to support Johnson here, effectively handing Tories a free vote on whether to condemn their former leader.
And it appears almost certain that Johnson won’t be suspended, unless he somehow incriminates himself beyond repair in the committee hearing.
Will Johnson Be Suspended?
Political betting sites reckon Johnson has a fairly comfortable chance of avoiding any form of punishment from the Partygate investigation.
He notably changed his tune when discussing lockdown gatherings in No 10 during the days that followed the Partygate revelations in 2021.
Johnson insisted he followed all guidance and rules as far as he had been advised by senior civil servants.
It was hoped at the time that this defence would deflect any blame away from the PM.
And even though the committee’s own evidence has suggested Johnson’s words don’t match with those other officials in Downing Street, it’s likely he’ll get through the hearing and subsequent fall-out without much reputational damage.
Indeed, Johnson is expected to avoid suspension or losing his seat, even if it’s recommended by the committee.
That’s because any proposed punishment will need to be voted upon in the Commons, and the Conservatives with their majority are unlikely to vote against a former leader.
Boris Johnson Next Job Odds
Regardless of the outcome from this investigation, it’s certain that Johnson won’t step away from the limelight.
The former PM has already made millions of pounds on the speaker circuit, particularly in America.
He still has aspirations of becoming prime minister once again, as evidenced when he tried to derail Rishi Sunak’s coronation following the fall of Liz Truss.
So what could Johnson realistically do next? Thanks to these hypothetical odds provided by industry experts, we’ve looked at what Mr Johnson could do next in his career.
Challenge The Tory Leadership
We reckon Johnson is well placed to have another crack at the party leadership. He will hope the Partygate scandal is finally over regardless of the result of the inquiry.
And if he and his supporters can put this behind him, the path is nicely polished for him to move upwards again.
The first stop is Brexit. Johnson has voted against Sunak’s Windsor Framework and insists his deal - which the EU and UK have struggled to implement - is better.
Johnson could well rally the Brexit troops here, although a coup similar to that staged against Theresa May in 2019 is unlikely.
What is more likely is Rishi Sunak loses his grasp of the party in the wake of disastrous local election results this May, and rumblings of a leadership contest begin.
We reckon Johnson is 1/3 to challenge for the leadership if the Tories trigger one. Expect these calls to grow if the Tories lose the next UK election.
More Public Speaking
One of the reasons for Johnson’s withdrawal of interest when seeking to replace Liz Truss was the financial hit he’d suffer by going back into No 10.
It’s believed his earnings potential would be halved, as he wouldn’t be able to conduct lucrative public speaking tours.
Johnson has already earned more than £2.5m from speeches since his exit from Downing Street.
We reckon he is 2/1 to break £10m in earnings before the next election.
TV Presenter
Not shy of the camera, Johnson could follow the likes of Ed Balls and Robert Kilroy-Silk (remember him?) into TV presenting. He could probably get a good slot on a news station like Sky News or TalkTV, or perhaps he could get a job over on FOX News.
Or how about he becomes a TV quiz show host? He certainly has practice after hosting the Downing Street Christmas Party Quiz during lockdown. At 5/2 we reckon it’s possible.
Wine Taster
No stranger to wine and cheese nights during lockdown, we reckon there’s a 25% chance (3/1) that Johnson becomes a wine taster. Johnson boasted in 2014 he could rival Sir Winston Churchill’s propensity for booze, saying “I can drink an awful lot at lunch and then write very fluently and fast. But if I drink at dinner, it just peters off.”
Perhaps being a party planner (4/1) is more likely. He seemingly managed to attend them during Covid-19 lockdown when the rest of the country couldn’t socialise. And he’s recently been working hard finding a new venue for his anniversary bash, after someone pointed out doing it at Chequers was “a bit crass”.
Publish A Book In This Parliament
Johnson is no stranger to the literary world, having published numerous books in his career. But the one that will earn him most money will be the eagerly-anticipated memoirs.
Harper Collins have him pinned down to a £6m book deal, but there is no timescale for its publication.
We reckon he is 4/1 to publish his memoirs before the next election.
That’s a fair price considering Johnson has a deal in place, but his story is not complete.
He may have also been put off by the high-profile controversy over Matt Hancock’s memoirs, in which his ghost writer Isabel Oakeshott leaked more than a million Whatsapp messages of the ex-health secretary from the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Surely Johnson wouldn’t be so foolish as to hand his personal messages over to a journalist.
Bake Off Contestant
Ed Balls, Ruth Davidson and Jess Phillips all thrived on the celebrity version of The Great British Bake Off, while Johnson’s sister Rachel excelled on the BBC’s Best Home Cook. So, could Johnson enter the Bake Off tent and stare down Paul Hollywood?
Last year he was asked if he’d ever want to go on Bake Off. His reply: “I wish. I would love to do that. I don’t think they have ever invited me.” At 8/1 it’s certainly possible, although the fact the Met Police fined Johnson over the birthday cake scandal in No 10 suggests not.
Sperm Donor
The job he was born to do? You know why. But at 30/1 it’s a very long shot.
Winston Churchill Impersonator
Johnson idolises Churchill but proved incapable of being the “war-time leader” the UK needed to get through the Covid-19 pandemic. With more than 180,000 people dead from coronavirus, the economy on the brink and still perpetual wrangling with the EU over Brexit, Johnson is not exactly considered in Churchill’s grade.
However, he is a showman. What are the chances he delivers a five-minute Churchill routine during his inevitable public speaking tour? 45/1 we reckon.
Divorce Councillor
A man divorced three times must know a thing or two about the process. Saying that, it’s probably something of a step down from being UK prime minister, which is why he’s 50/1 here. And Johnson doesn’t like to air his affairs – or anyone else’s for that matter – in public.
OnlyFans Creator
Johnson will always have his loyalists, and if public speaking doesn’t go well then why not skip Cameo and head straight to OnlyFans?
We make him 100/1 to set up an account on the online content subscription channel.
Bus Driver
He drove the Brexit Bus during the 2016 referendum and successfully scrapped bendy buses while Mayor of London. We reckon he’s 600/1 to get back behind the wheel.
Go To Space
At the age of 58, it’s highly unlikely Johnson will be an astronaut after he leaves No 10. But there’s a 1000/1 chance he could be rocketed into space. Johnson recently enjoyed a flight on a Typhoon fighter jet while the country literally burned under a heatwave below him.
Rebranding himself as a star of Top Gun could go down well with certain sections of the media and electorate. Virgin Galactic are planning flights in 2023.
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