Will it Snow at Christmas? Here's the Latest Odds

Will it Snow at Christmas? Here's the Latest Odds
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Betting on a white Christmas is something many of us enjoy in the lead-up to the big day and it often has us keeping a close eye on the weather forecasts on Christmas week.

There’s nothing more magical than Christmas Day snow when you open your curtains on December 25, but will it snow for Christmas 2021? Widespread snow looks increasingly likely and Gambling.com can confirm that Aberdeen is the location most likely to see snow fall on Christmas Day 2021 in the UK.

According to Betfair, one of the best betting sites online, the Scottish city is 3/10 to experience a white Christmas – which represents a 76.9% possibility that snowflakes will fall on the banks of the Dee.

For context, that figure was just 26.7% last week, but a recent temperature dip has seen the likelihood of snow increase dramatically.

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The Met Office rule that for a white Christmas “one snowflake (must) be observed falling in the 24 hours of 25 December somewhere in the UK” and weather stations will be keeping a watchful eye over the skies.

But will the UK or Ireland enjoy a white Christmas this year? One thing is for sure, we're unlikely to experience a warm day like we did in 2016, when temperatures in Britain rose as high as 14°C.

What Are The Odds on it Snowing on Christmas Day?

UK weather odds are well placed to suggest there could be snow on Christmas Day 2021 – and they’re backed up by data.

The UK experiences a white Christmas on average once every six years, while December averages snowfall for 3.9 days. That’s roughly one snow dump every week during the last month of the year – and more tends to come towards Christmas week and the back end of December.

Of course, plenty of focus is being put on Scotland, where Aberdeen is joined by both Edinburgh and Glasgow in the list of likely spots to experience at least a dusting of the white stuff.

All three cities are now odds-on to see snow on Christmas day with top bookmakers Betfair, Paddy Power and William Hill.

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Betting odds for snow on Christmas Day in specials betting markets could well shift between now and December 25 though, depending on what weather patterns emerge over the coming days.

“We are expecting the usual bets come Christmas time, with this market still proving popular each year with people who like a traditional flutter on snow to fall on the big day," says Coral spokesperson Harry Aitkenhead.

Odds On Snow on Christmas Day 2021

CityBest OddsProbabilityBookmaker
Aberdeen3/1076.9%Betfair
Edinburgh1/273.3%Paddy Power
Leeds2/571.4%William Hill
Glasgow1/266.7%Betfair
Newcastle4/660%William Hill
Birmingham8/1157.9%William Hill
Belfast6/440%Paddy Power
London4/120%Coral
Bristol4/120%Coral

Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow Most Likely

Perhaps not surprisingly it is the Scottish cities of Aberdeen, Glasgow and Edinburgh that the bookies believe are most likely to receive snow on Christmas Day. Aberdeen was initially installed as the favourite to witness snowfall last year only for Norwich to overtake the city in the days leading up to the 25th as stations recorded snow late last year.

That flip in the UK betting odds indicates just how quickly the markets can move once the Met Office knows for certain what type of weather we can expect in the week leading up to Christmas Day.

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As the current odds with Paddy Power suggest, there is a 66.7% chance of reported snow in Glasgow and 73.3% in Edinburgh, though Aberdeen is most likely. Indeed, the odds in the market are following the latitude of each city as the main determiner for each price.

Yet the likes of Newcastle, Belfast and Leeds have all seen their odds slashed in the last week amid hopes of a widespread white Christmas. Newcastle is in from 4/1 to 4/6, with Leeds the biggest mover from 6/1 to 2/5.

As Harry from Coral adds: “As always with these markets, it will largely be small stakes wagered and very much just a market for punters to enjoy and it does feel like a nice tradition. All eyes are usually on Scotland or northern England for the snow to fall!”

What Qualifies as a White Christmas?

The Met Office traditionally confirms whether or not there has been a white Christmas, which requires just one snowflake to fall somewhere in the country. For a city to have a confirmed white Christmas the Met Office needs to verify snow falling within its region.

Until 2006 it was determined that if a snow flake landed on the Met Office’s roof in London then the country had enjoyed snowfall on Christmas Day. But punters were the ones who forced the experts to look further afield than the capital.


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On the Met Office website it states: “with the increase in betting on where will see a white Christmas, the number of locations have increased and can now include sites such as Buckingham Palace, Belfast (Aldergrove Airport), Aberdeen (Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen FC), Edinburgh (Castle), Coronation Street in Manchester and the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff.”

Further analytical tools now mean that the Met Office has a complete picture of the UK’s weather on December 25.

FAQ


Edinburgh has a reasonable chance of it snowing on Christmas Day 2021, with odds of 1/2. That represents an implied probability of 66.7%.

The odds of Belfast enjoying a white Christmas currently stand at 6/4, which represents an implied probability of 40%.

The odds of Birmingham enjoying a white Christmas currently stand at 2/1, which represents an implied probability of 33.3%.

It looks fairly unlikely to snow in London on Christmas Day. The odds of the capital enjoying a white Christmas currently stand at 7/2, which represents an implied probability of 22.2%.

The odds of Cardiff enjoying a white Christmas currently stand at 3/1, which represents an implied probability of 25%.

There is a reasonable chance of Liverpool witnessing a white Christmas in 2021. The odds are set at 6/4, a 40% chance.

Quite possibly, yes. Aberdeen is the location most likely to enjoy a white Christmas in 2021, with odds of 4/11. That represents an implied probability of 73.3%.

It might. Newcastle is the most likely city in England to see a white Christmas with odds of 5/6. This represents an implied probability of 54.5%.

The chances of a white Christmas in Leeds have increased. Leeds now has a 54.5% chance of witnessing a white Christmas in 2021. The odds are set at 5/6.

The odds of Dublin enjoying a white Christmas currently stand at 3/1, which represents an implied probability of just 25%.

The odds of Bristol enjoying a white Christmas currently stand at 3/1, which represents an implied probability of 25%.

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