Will It Snow at Christmas? Here's The Latest White Christmas Betting Odds
Betting sites believe the odds of a white Christmas in 2022 are less likely than they were last year as forecasters predict wet and windy weather ahead for the United Kingdom.
There’s nothing more magical than waking up on Christmas day to see a smattering of snow falling outside your window. But Gambling.com can reveal that the UK could miss out on snowfall this year, after parts of Scotland were treated to the white stuff in 2021.
According to William Hill, one of the best specials betting sites, the Scottish cities of Glasgow and Edinburgh each have a 25% chance of snowfall on December 25, at odds of 3/1.
The slight reduction in the chances of a white Christmas this year is perhaps understandable.
The UK endured an uncharacteristically hot summer and has been treated to a deluge of rain in October, which has caused flash floods in the south east.
High pressure is expected to eventually envelop the country at the beginning of winter but the Met Office has warned that might not last long, with a return to wet and windy conditions in January.
The Met Office rule for an official white Christmas is that “one snowflake (must) be observed falling in the 24 hours of 25 December somewhere in the UK”.
UK bookmakers generally stick to airport locations as these provide official confirmation of snowfall.
But will it snow at Christmas? It's hard to say with any degree of certainty. One thing is for sure, we're unlikely to experience a warm day like we did in 2016, when temperatures in Britain rose as high as 14°C.
What Are The Odds on it Snowing on Christmas Day?
The UK weather odds suggest we could see snow on Christmas Day somewhere across the country, but the most likely place will be central Scotland or the north east of England.
Britain’s average December temperatures vary greatly. In the north of Scotland and in Aberdeenshire, average highs float around 6°C and as low as 1°C.
It is in the Deeside towns of Balmoral and Braemar where the mercury often plunges way before zero.
Armagh in Northern Ireland has similarly cold conditions, as does Aberystwyth in Wales and Penrith in Cumbria.
Further south, though, and the weather can sometimes remain mild throughout winter.
Highs of 9°C and 10°C can be enjoyed in Newquay and Exeter, while London’s relative microclimate means snow is rarely enjoyed for more than a day or two in the capital.
The UK experiences a white Christmas on average once every six years, and enjoys snowfall once every 3.9 days in December.
That’s effectively a flurry every week, which theoretically means there is a one-in-seven chance that snow falls on Christmas day itself.
But the bookies have provided a better chance than that. William Hill reckon Edinburgh, Glasgow and Newcastle each have a one-in-four chance of witnessing snowfall at their airports on Christmas day.
Of course, these odds could still shift between now and December 25, but it is indicative of where bookmakers think we’ll most likely see a flurry of the white stuff.
Glasgow, Edinburgh and Newcastle Most Likely
Last year snow fell in Shetland and parts of eastern Scotland enjoyed snow on Christmas Day.
Residents in Aboyne in Aberdeenshire and Strathallan in Perthshire awoke to find the roads and fields flush white, before snow was also recorded in the Yorkshire Dales.
“We have seen snowfall on Christmas Day, so it is officially a white Christmas,” said the Met Office.
Unfortunately, in parts of Northern Ireland an expected snow blast turned into a wet weather warning for County Down and County Armagh.
This year, Aberdeenshire could still get a smattering of snow, and bookies reckon Glasgow and Edinburgh in Scotland’s central belt has a 25% chance. Newcastle, 120 miles further south, is priced the same.
Last year, William Hill priced Newcastle at 4/1 to witness snow on Christmas Day. The city has now moved alongside those in Scotland as one of the frontrunners.
Elsewhere, Belfast, Manchester and Leeds are all considered 4/1 second favourites to enjoy a white Christmas. Belfast was ranked one of the least-likely cities to experience snowfall last year, and was priced alongside London at 6/1.
It goes to show how difficult it is to predict the weather so far out from the big day, and bookies will certainly be ready to flip their odds as soon as the Met Office confirms the likely weather patterns in early December.
The Met Office’s chief meteorologist Professor Paul Davies recently told the YEP: “November and December look more settled with high pressure likely to dominate our weather.
“Exact weather conditions will be dictated by where the high pressure settles over the Atlantic and the UK, but we are likely to see a higher incidence of northerly airflows, preventing mild, moist air flowing to the UK from the Atlantic Ocean and increasing the potential for cold snaps with some threat of snow and ice, mainly in northern areas.”
Will it snow in Edinburgh on Christmas Day?
Scottish capital Edinburgh has a reasonable chance of snow on Christmas Day 2022, with odds of 3/1. That represents an implied probability of 25%. However, the forecast could change between now and December 25. As things stand, Edinburgh is among the most likely UK cities to have a White Christmas.
Will it snow in Belfast on Christmas Day?
The odds of Belfast enjoying a white Christmas in 2022 currently stand at 4/1, which represents an implied probability of 20%. So it's not entirely out of the question for Northern Ireland's capital to see snow on Christmas day this year.
Will it snow in Birmingham on Christmas Day?
The odds of Birmingham enjoying a white Christmas currently stand at 5/1, which represents an implied probability of 16.7%. It's not entirely out of the question for England's 'Second City' to see snow on Christmas Day in 2022, but it's pretty unlikely.
Will it snow in London on Christmas Day?
It looks fairly unlikely to snow in London on Christmas Day in 2022. The odds of England's capital enjoying a white Christmas this year currently stand at 6/1, which represents an implied probability of 14.3%. However, last year London's odds were halved in the run-up to Christmas so the forecast could change again this year.
Will it snow in Cardiff on Christmas Day?
The odds of Cardiff enjoying a white Christmas currently stand at 6/1, which represents an implied probability of 14.3%. That suggest the Welsh capital is unlikely to see snow on December 25 this year, but it's not completely out of the question.
Will it snow in Liverpool on Christmas Day?
There is a small chance of Liverpool witnessing a white Christmas in 2022. The odds are currently set at 5/1, a 16.7% chance according to the bookmakers. However, the forecast could change between now and December 25 so Liverpool's chances of snow this Christmas may yet improve.
Will it snow in Newcastle on Christmas Day?
It might snow in Newcastle on Christmas Day this year. Newcastle is the most likely city in England to see a white Christmas with odds of 3/1. This represents an implied probability of 25% - as good a chance as Edinburgh and Glasgow.
Will it snow in Leeds on Christmas Day?
The chances of a white Christmas in Leeds in 2022 have been provisionally set at 4/1. That means Leeds has a 20% chance of witnessing a white Christmas this year. Last year, Leeds' hopes of snow at Christmas crashed all the way in just before the big day, and something similar could happen in 2022.
Will it snow in Bristol on Christmas Day?
The odds of Bristol enjoying a white Christmas currently stand at 7/1, which represents an implied probability of 12.5%. That means Bristol is one of the least likeliest cities in the United Kingdom to see snow on December 25, 2002.
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