What Are the Odds of Snow This Christmas?

What Are the Odds of Snow This Christmas?
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Gambling.com can reveal that Norwich is now the location most likely to see snow in the UK & Ireland on Christmas day 2020.

Online bookmakers have been compiling the odds and the English city is currently 6/4 in the betting markets, which represents a 40% possibility that there’ll be a White Christmas for Norwich residents to enjoy.

Is it Likely to Snow on Christmas Day in the UK or Ireland?

Although snow is most common in the UK & Ireland between the months of January and March, punters still line up every year to take a festive punt on the location most likely to see frosty weather.

The vast majority of bookmakers use weather stations at airports as their source of measurement, which allows for a more balanced contest across the market.

Met Office statistics tell us that snow has fallen somewhere in the UK on Christmas day 38 times since 1965. In Ireland there has been a White Christmas roughly every six years since 1941, though none since 2010, which was also the last widespread White Christmas in the UK.

Odds of Snow On Christmas Day 2020*

CityOddsImplied Chance
Norwich6/440%
Newcastle7/436.4%
Aberdeen13/527.8%
Edinburgh4/120%
Glasgow9/218.2%
Manchester5/116.70%
Belfast6/114.3%
Leeds6/114.3%
Liverpool6/114.3%
London13/213.3%
Birmingham8/111.1%
Bristol10/19.1%
Dublin11/18.3%
Cardiff12/17.7%

*Odds correct as of 22/12/2020

Norwich and Newcastle Most Likely

Trailing closely behind Norwich is Newcastle, which has a 7/4 chance of snow this Christmas, an implied probability of 36.4%. The odds make unusual reading this year as the Scottish cities of Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow typically head up the market.

Indeed, it last snowed in 2010 on Christmas for Glaswegians and Edinburgers, and the entirety of northern Scotland has seen a White Christmas 34 times in the past 56 years.

Unfortunately (depending on how you look at it!) Cardiff is least likely to experience a snowball fight on Christmas day as bookmakers have marked the city at 12/1. This represents a 7.7% probability, which may disappoint a few faces in the Welsh capital come the 25th of December.

In the north of England, Manchester (5/1) is slightly more likely than Liverpool (6/1) to see snowflakes on Christmas, while Northern Ireland capital Belfast and the Yorkshire city of Leeds are also given a 6/1 chance, which equates to a 14.3% chance each.



How Does a City Qualify for a Bookie’s White Christmas?

Bookmakers will take their measurements for a White Christmas from the main airport in the location offered. So, Belfast’s snow measurement will be taken from Belfast Airport, Manchester’s from Manchester Airport and so on.

At least 1mm of snow must be recorded on the ground at the airport, and punter’s payouts are the discretion of the bookmaker, depending on their terms and conditions. It is advised that festive punters read the market’s terms and conditions at their preferred online bookie in full before parting with any cash.

Punters are not able to place a White Christmas bet as part of an accumulator as the markets are linked. If it snows in London the chances of it snowing in other parts of the country are much higher than before, and vice versa.

FAQ


It might. Edinburgh is one of the most likely places for it to snow on Christmas Day 2020 in the UK and Ireland, according to bookmakers. The Scottish capital is currently 4/1 in the odds, which represents an implied probability of 27.8% that it will snow.

Glasgow, along with Edinburgh, has a small chance of snow on Christmas Day 2020. At 9/2 in the odds, it is 18.2% likely that there will be a White Christmas in Glasgow this year.

It is unlikely that it will snow in Belfast on Christmas Day this year. There hasn't been a White Christmas in Belfast in decades. Bookmakers have made it 6/1 that it will happen, representing an implied probability of just 14.3%.

It is very unlikely that it will snow in Birmingham on Christmas Day this year. Bookmakers have given the midlands city odds of 8/1; an 11.1% chance that it will see a White Christmas.

It is very unlikely that it will snow in London on Christmas Day 2020. The city has odds of 13/2 at top online bookmakers, representing a 13.3% chance.

The short answer is probably not. The bookmakers have given the Welsh capital a 12/1 shot, which represents an implied 7.7% chance that it'll snow there this year.

It is unlikely to snow in Manchester this year on Christmas. The city has odds of 5/1 at top online bookmakers, which only gives it a 16.7% chance.

It is unlikely to snow in Liverpool on Christmas Day this year. Liverpudlians will be disappointed that bookmakers give them a 6/1 shot of a snowy Christmas, representing an implied chance of 14.3%.

Aberdeen is the most likely Scottish city for it to snow on Christmas Day 2020, according to bookmakers. Aberdeen is currently 13/5 in the odds, which represents an implied probability of 27.8% that it will snow.

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