Andy Burnham Odds: Labour Leadership Looms But Will He Be PM?
Andy Burnham made his not-too-subtle pitch to succeed prime minister Sir Keir Starmer at Labour’s party conference this autumn – and the odds on betting sites suggest he’s a frontrunner for the job.
Burnham currently serves as mayor of Manchester, but the former MP is widely understood to be eyeing a return to Westminster.
“People have been getting in touch with me,” he told the BBC when asked about a leadership challenge.
“And obviously, I've said to them, it's not a matter for me. This is ultimately a matter for the party in Westminster to decide.”
Given Starmer’s dire approval ratings and Labour’s inability to challenge Reform in the polls, there’s every chance the party will seek to replace their leader next year.
In fact, the odds suggest a 50/50 possibility of Starmer being ousted.
No wonder Burnham has suddenly shot to the front of the queue to succeed the PM – even if his road to power is fraught with obstacles.
Andy Burnham Odds
The latest political betting odds on Burnham being prime minister suggest he has a good chance of moving into No. 10.
Burnham is 9/2 with Ladbrokes to be the next Labour leader and 6/1 to be the next prime minister.
That puts him ahead of health secretary Wes Streeting for the party leadership, but still behind Reform UK’s Nigel Farage (7/2) for the top job.
All this for a political figure who isn’t an MP.
Burnham cannot lead the party or be prime minister unless he sits in the Commons.
So, his long road to power starts with subtle hints that allies within the party want him to become leader.
Right now, the 55-year-old is laying the groundwork for a bigger job in the future.
Next Labour Leader Betting Odds
Candidate | Odds | Betting Site |
Andy Burnham | 9/2 | |
Wes Streeting | 6/1 | |
Shabana Mahmood | 12/1 | |
Yvette Cooper | 12/1 | |
Angela Rayner | 16/1 | |
Lucy Powell | 20/1 | |
Darren Jones | 22/1 | |
John Healey | 25/1 |
Will Burnham Be Prime Minister?
The former health secretary failed in his bid to lead the party a decade ago.
Since then, Burnham has steadily built his reputation in the north of England and gathered loyal supporters.
He is credited with helping Labour succeed in the north during the 2024 general election and holding the Conservative government accountable during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Next Prime Minister Betting Odds
Candidate | Odds | Betting Site |
Nigel Farage | 7/2 | |
Andy Burnham | 13/2 | |
Wes Streeting | 7/1 | |
Yvette Cooper | 14/1 | |
Shabana Mahmood | 16/1 | |
Kemi Badenoch | 22/1 | |
Robert Jenrick | 25/1 | |
Lee Pitcher | 25/1 | |
Lucy Powell | 30/1 |
*Odds correct at time of publication - 3.30pm, 9/10/25.
Burnham also has his detractors. Labour insiders widely criticised him for staking his claim for the leadership when doing the media rounds ahead of the party’s conference in Liverpool.
It could also be a long time before Burnham even gets a shot at the big job.
Plenty of dominoes will have to fall for him to succeed Starmer in Downing Street.
To start, Burnham needs to return to the Commons. He needs a by-election victory to do that, or wait until the 2029 general election.
Burnham is working through a four-year term as mayor of Manchester, ending in 2028. He’s previously committed himself to the role, so breaking that promise to gun for a Westminster seat would be a clear sign of intent.
Then he would have to wait for a leadership bid to arise. Starmer may have regained control of the party by the time Burnham is in Westminster, or may even have already been ousted.
It’s also possible that Burnham waits until 2029, wins a seat at the general election, and succeeds Starmer to lead the Labour Party in opposition.
That’s not exactly a disabled outcome, but it would at least give him control of the party.
Burnham holds a powerful position within the party right now, yet any move towards London would be seen as a direct challenge to Starmer’s administration.
That is a big risk when Labour are battling a surging right wing. Voters don’t like party infighting, and a leadership challenge could be viewed as putting personal ambitions ahead of the country’s needs.
Burnham will have to tread carefully to reach Downing Street, but there’s no doubting he wants the job.
Do you think Andy Burnham can make it all the way to Downing Street? Leave us your thoughts below!
