Dutch Election Betting Odds: Wilders' PVV Party Streets Ahead To Win Most Seats

The next major European election takes place on October 29 in the Netherlands. On the basis of the previous election, the particular conditions, context and current state of play, there is plenty of reason to expect drama, value betting opportunities and perhaps a late swing. 

Right now, PVV (Party of Freedom) are red-hot favourites on politics betting sites to win the most seats in the House of Representatives.

NetBet is offering 8/25, although they are as short as 1/5 with other firms.

PVV won the most seats in the previous Netherlands Parliamentary Election of 2023, and triggered this snap election by walking out of the four-party coalition this summer. Led by anti-Islam firebrand Geert Wilders, PVV are ahead in current polls and seat projections. 

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Terror And Assassination Threats Could Boost Wilders

Wilders suspended his campaign last week after learning that he was targeted for assassination by a terrorist group, along with the Belgian PM. 

Perhaps that will rally support behind his party and drive another late surge, as they enjoyed in 2023. 

On that occasion, they rose from third in the betting and almost doubled their vote share during the last two weeks. Understandably, political bettors sense a repeat.

Dutch Election Betting Odds 2025: Most Seats

However, it would be wrong to assume that PVV are certainties for several reasons. 

And one must always remember the golden rule of politics betting. Never refight the previous election. 

Every election has its own unique context.

Dutch Election Betting: PVV Have Slumped Since Government Collapse

PVV’s polling is around 3% down on 2023. They rose sharply after winning the 2023 election, from around 23/24% to above 30%, but then slumped below 20% after the coalition broke down. 

Wilders was widely blamed and key partners such as the more centrist CDA have committed not to work with PVV again. 

Key voter groups may consider a vote for Wilders as a vote for more chaos, as he will struggle to form any coalition. 

Plus there is now a far-right alternative, JA21, who position themselves as more pragmatic and responsible. JA21 rose from 6-8% during September and may have better prospects of finding coalition partners.

Whilst PVV lead the current seat projections, they are not totally dominant. Depending on the polling company, their lead over PVDA-GL (Labour/Green alliance) has ranged between 2-11 seats. CDA are also within a seat or two of second place. 

I would be wary of placing too much store in these seat projections, especially at this relatively early stage. 

Last week, half of all voters remained undecided. They have 16 parties to choose from. 

It is a big assumption that PVV thrive in this situation, given their role in collapsing the government, falling out with partners and the aforementioned challenge from JA21.

Dutch General Election: Tactical Voting Could Transform Outcome

The voting system is Proportional Representation (PR), using the D'Hondt formula, making second/third preferences ultra important. 

Could CDA and VVD (centre-right) supporters take their cue from their party leaders and remove PVV from their lists? 

Could left-leaning voters, who are clearly a minority of the electorate, include centre-right parties as second/third preferences in order to block the far-right? 

These are logical tactics and voters are usually good at working out such plans in such wide-open, multi-party PR systems.

Who Will Win The Dutch Election?

Furthermore, consider what has been happening in elections elsewhere. In Moldova, the pro-EU, anti-Russia, more centrist coalition just won a stunning victory. 

In Canada and Australia, anti-Trump centrist/liberals won big. Despite the backing of Elon Musk and JD Vance, the AfD stalled in the German election. 

Following the first Trump victory in 2016, there seemed to be a liberal backlash around the world in 2017, powered by ultra-motivated anti-far-right voters. 

Differential turnout is always the dynamic which can make a mockery of polls and the odds on betting sites. 

As it stands, the former are in flux and far from decisive. Regarding the latter, the experience of 2023 illustrates the danger of taking very short odds in what remains an unpredictable election. 

The odds available with Ladbrokes about the two main challengers to PVV - 6/1 about CDA and 5/1 about PVDA-GL - could well shorten up during the closing stretch.