Dutch Election Betting Odds: Wilders' PVV Party Ahead Of Labour's VVD

The right-wing Party for Freedom (PVV) are expected to win most seats at the 2025 Dutch election, according to betting sites  – but Geert Wilders is not guaranteed to become prime minister.

The Dutch parliament was suspended in June when Wilders withdrew his party from the coalition government over a row about immigration.

Some accuse him of playing political games and claim his “10 additional asylum measures” were either already in the coalition agreement or illegal.

Having ruled in an uneasy truce alongside People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), New Social Contract (NSC) and the Farmer/Citizen Movement (BBB), Wilders now hopes to go it alone.

But he faces an uphill battle to either secure a majority and rule alone, or form another majority coalition.

Voters will head to the polls on October 29 to elect a new parliament in the 150-seat House of Representatives.

The Netherlands’ three largest parties – the PVV, Green Left/Labour (GL/PvdA), and VVD – have all tasted power over the past few years. Relations between the parties are strained.

And politics betting sites reckon Wilders’ party is on course to win the most seats come October, even if he is blocked from government.

Dutch Election Betting Odds 2025: Most Seats

Dutch Election Betting

The Netherlands’ parliamentary election works under a proportional representation model, which inevitably leads to smaller parties picking up handfuls of votes.

It makes it almost impossible for a major party to win 51% of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives. Party members therefore enter a period of negotiations after an election, in an attempt to broker deals with others and form a coalition.

This is what happened in 2024 when PVV won the most seats (37) and joined forces with the VVD (24), NSC (20) and BBB (7) to govern.

However, the government lasted less than a year before collapsing after Wilders’ withdrawal.

This year, the PVV remain 6/5 favourites with William Hill to win the most seats. That makes sense by the fact they’re the most credible far-right party on the ballot, bar the BBB.

Just like Reform in the UK, PVV thrive because they pool voters around a core policy: immigration.

Meanwhile, the bulk of the other votes are spread between left-leaning GL/PvdA, right-leaning VVD and centre-right NSC.

William Hill gives GL/PvdA a 28.6% chance of winning the most seats at the 2025 election, at 5/2. 

VVD’s odds are wider at 10/3 (23.1%), while the NSC – winners of 20 seats as a new party at the 2023 election – are now in obscurity at 250/1 on betting apps.

The odds roughly represent the polls. Wilders’ party is out in front on 33 points, with the other two big parties eight points back. None of them can win a majority. The NSC’s popularity has disintegrated following their efforts in government.

Three parties will probably hoover up around 70% of the vote, with the remainder being shared among the smaller parties. Someone will have to strike a coalition agreement in order to govern.

Who Will Win The Dutch Election?

Winning the most seats at the Dutch election is different to winning the election. The polls suggest PVV will win the most seats – although it may be fewer than the 37 earned in 2023.

PVV are nowhere near the 50% mark in polling, so will have to rely on others to form a coalition. They’ve already burned through a working relationship with the VVD, who have branded Wilders “an unbelievably untrustworthy partner”.

It’s unlikely the GL/PvdA will countenance governing with Wilders, either. Wilders looks on course to win the most votes but be locked out of government.

Focus is therefore going to flip to whether traditional rivals VVD and GL/PvdA can form a coalition to block the populists from power.

VVD leader Dilan Yesilgoz says there’s an “enormous gulf” between her party and the left-leaning GL/PvdA – yet that gulf appears to be a mere crack compared to the fissure that’s opened up with them and Wilders.