Keir Starmer Odds Plunge As Labour Edge Towards Election Victory
Article By
Last Updated: 
Betting sites expect Sir Keir Starmer to be the next UK prime minister once the country holds its general election this year or next.
Labour leader Starmer has overseen a transformation of the main opposition party since replacing Jeremy Corbyn in 2020.
Labour suffered a huge defeat at the 2019 general election, but five years on now look destined to return to government.
UK bookmakers give the party an 81% chance of securing a majority at the next election. The markets reflect a huge shift in the UK political odds over the past two years.
Labour currently lead the Conservatives by 20 points, while both Reform UK and the Lib Dems are polling at 9%.
Sir Keir looks to be on the cusp of replacing Rishi Sunak in No 10 and punters are throwing their weight behind him.
So much so, in fact, that some political betting sites have shrunk their odds to record lows in recent weeks.
Sir Keir Starmer Odds
According to bookmakers, Sir Keir has an 88.9% chance of being the next UK prime minister.
His odds of 1/8 is an average taken across the political betting industry. Some sites, like BetMGM, even have him as short as 1/10.
The latest Sunak odds, meanwhile, have pushed out to 7/1. The bookies reckon he has just a 12.5% chance of remaining as prime minister after the next election.
Sir Keir’s domination of the market is no surprise. Labour have polled above 43% ever since Liz Truss replaced Boris Johnson as prime minister and, in the space of 50 days, blew a £60bn hole in the UK economy.
Rishi Sunak has tried various strategies to rekindle support for the Conservatives but none are working.
He is stuck between trying to court centrist voters and keeping the populist right of his party on-side.
The next election is an open goal for Labour – but Starmer may not have it all their own way.
Problems For Labour
A party can swiftly become a target when it leads in the polls as Labour is doing.
The opposition have faced huge criticism for their scrapping of a £28bn green pledge that was to form the backbone of their proposed new government strategy.
In February, a ruckus in the Commons during a debate around Israel and Gaza resulted in the SNP and Tories demanding House speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle – a Labour MP – to resign.
The SNP are as wary of Labour’s threat in Scotland as the Tories in England.
What’s more, Sir Keir has already lost 10 of his frontbench colleagues over the issue of war in the Middle East.
Not that this has affected his poll ratings. The former Director of Public Prosecutions doesn’t have a stellar approval rating but it’s still better than Mr Sunak’s. Right now, that’s all that matters.
Labour’s electability doesn’t appear to be affected by infighting over the Middle East or the direction of their green energy plans.
That was evidenced in the recent Wellingborough and Kingswood by-election results, which delivered crushing victories over the Tories.
Sir Keir will have to get used to being in the spotlight. There is a growing expectation among the voting public that Labour are the only alternative choice to the Tories after 14 years of Conservative rule. The state of the economy, public services and the NHS are top of the agenda.
Labour can point to their record during the 2000s as proof they can properly fund public services and the NHS.
The shadow of the financial crisis that ultimately did for Gordon Brown in 2010 has finally fizzled out.
In its place is a desire across the country for change from the current set-up in the next UK general election.
Mr Sunak has stepped into the firing line and doesn’t seem able to escape it. Sir Keir, according to the polls and betting apps, is about to step in.
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.
Updated by
Last Updated:
