Kemi Badenoch Prime Minister Odds: 2026 Exit On Cards With Election Win Unlikely
Betting sites expect Kemi Badenoch to lose the Conservative party leadership in 2026 and practically write off her chances of taking the Tories into the next general election.
Badenoch has endured a timid start to life as leader since she beat Robert Jenrick to the post last autumn.
Having failed to land significant blows on Labour over the past eight months, Badenoch has instead grappled with plunging Tory support as voters switch to Reform UK.
Labour are also trying to court the right-wing Reform vote. In doing so, they appear to be squeezing the Conservatives into irrelevancy.
The latest polls suggest Reform have an eight-point lead over Labour, while the Conservatives are lingering on 19%.
If an election were held tomorrow, the Tories would likely lose seats – a catastrophic result following on from last summer’s historic defeat to Labour.
Pressure is steadily growing on Badenoch to give her party relevancy, but the bookies reckon she may run out of time to complete the job. She could even be gone by Christmas.
Kemi Badenoch Odds
The latest odds on Badenoch make for grim reading. Bookmaker William Hill reckons there’s an 87.5% chance she doesn’t lead the Tories into the next election.
To make matters worse, Ladbrokes prices a 2026 exit from the Conservative leadership at 6/4 (40% likelihood).
Badenoch is also tipped to be the first party leader among the Tories, Labour and Reform to lose their job first, at odds of 2/5 (71.4%). Furthermore, she is 9/1 (10%) to be the next UK prime minister after Sir Keir Starmer.
Even if Badenoch does lead the Conservatives into the next election, political betting sites expect her to lose out to either Starmer or Nigel Farage.
At this stage, it’s hard to see how Badenoch bounces back and delivers an acceptable result for the Tories.
Remember, this is a political party used to winning and ruthless in its decision making. If the Conservatives don’t start making up ground in the polls soon, Badenoch’s job could swiftly be on the line.
Can Badenoch Stay In Power?
And yet, there is a glimmer of hope for the ex-business secretary. YouGov polling data reveals Badenoch is considered a better prime ministerial choice than Farage.
The 29-25% gap isn’t huge but, when you dig into the data, voters from Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens all prefer Badenoch over the former Brexit Party leader.
Reform may be riding high in the polls right now but, when it comes to who voters want to be prime minister, Badenoch has the edge.
This may not seem like much now but it’s a starting point for the 45-year-old. Now she just has to make her party relevant again.
Next Conservative Party Leader Odds
Candidate | Odds | Bookmaker |
Robert Jenrick | 9/4 | |
James Cleverly | 9/2 | |
Boris Johnson | 8/1 | |
Nigel Farage | 12/1 | |
Andrew Griffith | 16/1 | |
Claire Coutinho | 25/1 | |
Jacob Rees-Mogg | 25/1 | |
Rupert Lowe | 25/1 | |
Mike Wood | 25/1 | |
Chris Philp | 25/1 | |
Rupert Lowe | 25/1 |
(Odds correct at 3.30pm, May 28, 2025)
She’s fighting on two fronts to achieve this. On one hand, she’s trying to out-Reform Farage’s party with tough immigration proposals. The problem is, critics simply point at the Tories and ask why they didn’t apply these suggestions when in government for 14 years.
What’s more, Labour are also trying to capture Reform’s ground and are squeezing the Tories in the process.
The other side is the centre ground, which Labour have locked down. Trade agreements with the United States and European Union appeal directly to centrist voters and the Conservatives don’t have much in response.
This is why it’s hard to see how Badenoch rides out the next few years until the election. There’s no avenue to relevancy right now, no spark that ignites the party back into life.
The only upside is everyone bar Reform voters reckon she’s a better option to lead the country than Farage. But that’s not going to secure power for the Tories.
So, Conservative MPs have a choice. Stick with Badenoch and almost certainly lose the next election – perhaps even losing more than their record-low 121 seats.
Or change their leader and hope a new direction presents itself.
Farage is the 12/1 fourth favourite to succeed Badenoch as Tory leader but he doesn’t need the failing party right now. He has his eyes on No 10 and a Reform government.
