Kemi Badenoch Prime Minister Odds: 2026 Exit On Cards With Election Win Unlikely

Kemi Badenoch’s odds of being the next UK prime minister after Sir Keir Starmer are at their highest since she took over the Conservative party leadership – and the bad news doesn’t stop there.

As leader of the opposition, Badenoch would be expected to be a frontrunner for the prime ministership because she stands a chance of winning the next election.

That does not seem to be the case, however, as she is just the joint-fifth favourite on betting sites alongside her Tory rival Robert Jenrick for the post – an indication of just how far she is from power.

The likes of Nigel Farage and Labour’s Wes Streeting, Yvette Cooper and Andy Burnham are all deemed more likely to be PM before Badenoch.

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The 45-year-old delivered her party conference speech to a packed hall in Manchester in October, outlining her policy agenda.

The bill included a commitment to scrapping stamp duty and reducing the government’s financial deficit without raising taxes. That means welfare and spending cuts.

But alongside the fiscal pledge has been a spate of more right-wing announcements about immigration and integration, something Badenoch hopes will bridge the gap between the Conservatives and Reform UK.

Yet the political betting odds suggest so little confidence in Badenoch that it's highly likely she will be gone before the Conservatives contest the next election.

Kemi Badenoch Odds

Indeed, the latest odds from Unibet make for worrying reading. 

Badenoch is 20/1 to be the next UK prime minister – odds that carry a 4.8% probability.

The price represents a significant jump from 9/1 (10% likelihood) back in May.

The widening over the summer reflects two things: Badenoch’s inability to create a substantial narrative for the Tories, and Farage’s surging popularity with Reform UK.

Indeed, with Reform now at 35% in the polls and the Tories lingering at 17%, Badenoch's odds of winning the next UK election look bleak.

Her party is 16/1 (5.9%) to win a majority at the 2029 election. In reality, it’s not going to happen.

Scrutiny over Badenoch’s leadership is already mounting so much that she could be deposed as early as next year.

Will Badenoch Be Sacked?

Badenoch may have felt she unified the Tory party during her conference speech, but, in reality, there are significant fissures that she can’t bring together.

The Tories are losing voters, volunteers, staff and former MPs to Reform. 

Those left in the party are split between leaning further right (like Jenrick would like) and gunning for the centre ground.

Badenoch is trying to have both, but in doing so, she’s got nothing.

Next Conservative Party Leader Odds

(Odds correct at 9.30am, October 9, 2025)

The solution for many Tory members will soon be clear: change the leader. That’s why the majority of betting apps have cut their odds on a 2026 exit to 8/11.

Meanwhile, Badenoch is now 1/9 not to lead the Tories into the next election.

So, who could replace her? Jenrick – her defeated rival in last year’s leadership contest – is making an overt pitch for the leadership by seeking as much media attention as possible.

James Cleverly is the only viable option in the betting odds, with every other candidate (including Boris Johnson) priced at 14/1 or wider to succeed Badenoch.

There’s not exactly a large talent pool to choose from, as many longstanding MPs lost their seats at the 2024 election and plenty more have defected to Reform.

The party started from scratch when Badenoch took over the leadership in 2024, but it may have to renew itself again next year.

Badenoch has failed to make her party relevant. Jenrick thinks he can do the job and seems ready for the kill. No wonder the odds are narrowing on a 2026 departure.