Labour Deputy Leader Betting Odds: Phillipson Heads Race To Replace Rayner

UK betting sites make education secretary Bridget Phillipson the favourite to replace Angela Rayner as Labour deputy leader.

Phillipson and ex-leader of the House of Commons Lucy Powell are the only two candidates in the running for the post.

The pair both succeeded in gaining the required support from fellow Labour MPs and will now prepare for an October ballot of Labour members.

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Prime minister Sir Keir Starmer is looking for a new deputy after Rayner was axed following a stamp duty scandal.

Six female MPs initially sought to run in the contest, only for the numbers to whittle down to three before the deadline for submissions.

Outsider Bell Ribeiro-Addy then dropped out of the contest, meaning it’s a two-horse race for the deputy leadership.

And political betting sites are figuring out who could succeed Rayner – and how this could affect Starmer’s potential exit date.

How The Labour Deputy Leadership Works

Labour’s deputy leadership contest is a perfect excuse to exercise party-wide democracy – but also expose factions within the Labour family.

Candidates from the Parliamentary Labour Party (basically, Labour MPs) put their names forward.

They also required a 20% backing from the Parliamentary Labour Party, which amounts to the support of 80 MPs.

Labour Deputy Leader Odds

They then need a 5% backing of the Constituency Labour Parties or three organisations affiliated to the Labour Party (including two trade unions) to get on the ballot.

Ballots then open on October 8 until October 23 (noon). The result is then announced on October 25 and the successful candidate takes office.

The deputy leadership election is a drawn-out process that highlights democracy working within one of the UK’s biggest political parties. 

Yet it also comes with significant drama and power struggles.

Labour Deputy Leader Betting By Candidate

Opinion on the next Labour deputy leader suggests party members want a working-class candidate based in a constituency outside of London or the South.

There’s a fairly even split between whether they come from the left of the party or are more of a centrist.

Phillipson has already spoken about her “proud working-class” background and is from the North East.

As education secretary, she is a core Starmer ally – very different to Rayner, who bridged two wings of the party with her deputyship.

Powell, meanwhile, has the backing of Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham and is the go-to option for MPs and party members unhappy with Starmer’s premiership. She was sacked from the cabinet earlier this month.

The odds are likely to move even closer over the course of the members’ vote. 

Here, we look at both candidates and their odds on becoming deputy Labour leader.

Labour Deputy Leader Odds: Bridget Phillipson

At 8/13, Phillipson has the best chance of anyone to succeed Rayner. 

Her odds suggest close to a two-in-three possibility of her becoming deputy leader – and Phillipson is in a strong position.

As education secretary, she has avoided the worst of the political flak to hit Starmer’s government over the past year. 

Phillipson has kept her head down and worked as a faithful cabinet minister.

Phillipson is a strong contender. She is a Starmer ally but is not from London. She commands an approval rating of over 28% from party members.

She has also brought through popular policies such as VAT on private school fees, 30 hours of free childcare, and widened the net of breakfast clubs across the country.

Phillipson’s remit as education secretary has seen her “give” rather than “take”. She is well placed to succeed Rayner.

Labour Deputy Leader Odds: Lucy Powell

Powell was considered an outside shout when she first entered the Labour deputy leadership race but earned a significant boost when Emily Thornberry withdrew.

If Phillipson is the Starmer-aligned choice for the deputy leadership, then Powell is the counterweight.

As former leader of the House of Commons until last week, Powell has plenty of backbench allies within the parliamentary party.

She offers Labour members a viable counterweight to Starmer, keeping the PM in check at a time when he flirts with Reform UK policies.

Powell could be a great choice for Labour in terms of unifying two wings of the party. The only issue is how she would work with Starmer, who sacked her days before Rayner departed.

At 11/10, betting apps reckon she has got a good shot of beating the favourite Phillipson.