Nigel Farage Betting Odds: Could Reform UK Leader Become Next Prime Minister?

Betting sites have slashed their odds on Nigel Farage being the next UK prime minister after Sir Keir Starmer following a sensational set of results for Reform UK at May’s local elections.

Reform won a staggering 677 local council seats in their first ever campaign, practically mirroring the enormous losses suffered by the Conservatives.

Labour also endured a hammering at the ballot box, while pollsters now put Reform ahead of Starmer’s party.

“In post-war Britain, no one has ever beaten both Labour and the Tories in a local election before,” Farage said.

Having grown out of the Brexit Party, Reform now appears to be steamrolling towards electoral success at the next general election, which is not scheduled until 2029.

And bookmakers are keeping tabs on Farage’s fresh rise to prominence – a trajectory so steep that it has overhauled the odds on him joining forces with the Tories.

Nigel Farage Odds

According to BetMGM, Farage is now the big 2/1 favourite to succeed Starmer. Those odds plummeted after the local election results, while Tory leader Kemi Badenoch saw her price rocket to 6/1.

The markets suggest a 33.3% chance of Farage becoming the UK’s next prime minister. What’s heartening for Reform voters is it looks as though he’d also lead his party into government, rather than jumping ship to the Conservatives.

William Hill prices Farage at 1/7 (87.5%) to lead Reform into the next general election. That could come as late as 2029 or, if pressure mounts on Labour, perhaps sooner.

Farage doesn’t need to rush. He’s popular among his party members and supporters, while he seems to have quashed Rupert Lowe’s recent rebellion.

The former banker is as wide as 6/1 with politics betting sites to leave Reform this year or the next. Surely his only route out of Reform would be to replace Badenoch as Tory leader.

But this outcome appears increasingly unlikely due to the fact Reform are outperforming the Tories in the polls. Why would Farage risk joining a party that has lost its way with voters after 14 years in government, when he’s trending upwards with Reform?

Will Farage Be Prime Minister?

Indeed, Farage is looking beyond the Conservatives and believes he is now Labour’s direct opposition.

The problem is, Farage doesn’t have the numbers in parliament. There are only five Reform UK MPs – the most recently-elected, Sarah Pochin, won Runcorn and Helsby by just six votes. 

Yes, Reform now has control of a handful of local councils but with power comes responsibility.

It took just three days for a new councillor to be suspended from the party while Farage has also endured criticism of his leadership and alignment with Donald Trump’s policies in the US.

Reform’s ability to govern will now be put to the test. It’s a position Farage hasn’t really been in before. How he fares over the next year or two will ultimately settle his fate at the next general election.

Labour has already gone on the attack, accusing Farage of “fawning over Putin” and not being honest to voters about his views on NHS privatisation. For now, the 61-year-old can brush this off. But if he makes a pitch for prime minister then he’ll need to address these issues.

After all, capturing the centre ground is what usually wins UK general elections. Labour did this in the wake of the Conservatives shifting too far to the right in 2024. 

Even if Reform team up with the Conservatives, they may prove too right-wing for the general population come 2029.

Then there’s the issue of populist rhetoric coming across the Atlantic and biting Farage. Trumpism is divisive and disruptive. 

Some electorates are ready to shake things up and thrive in the chaos. Farage is certainly keen to get his teeth into the UK economy and societal structures. Yet other countries have turned away from MAGA-style politics.

Canada and Australia voted for centre-left liberal parties this spring that outright refused to engage in Trump-style politics. Will this trend continue? Possibly. It could come to bite Farage at an inopportune moment.

The future is hard to predict but betting apps reckon Farage has a better chance than most of becoming prime minister. 

His party is 6/4 joint-favourites with Labour to win the next election. Maintaining momentum will ultimately determine whether he succeeds or not.