Nigel Farage Betting Odds: Could Reform UK Leader Become Next Prime Minister?

Betting sites have further cut their odds on Nigel Farage becoming the next UK prime minister – but the Reform UK leader will have to bide his time to get into No 10.

Farage has overseen Reform’s monumental rise in popularity. 

From a start-up party before the last election to favourites to win the next one, the Brexit architect is riding high.

Having won 677 council seats at May’s local elections, Reform are seeking to deepen their influence across the UK. 

They came close to winning a Scottish Parliament seat in June and are polling at 30% nationally.

No wonder politics betting sites have cut their Farage odds to such an extent that they reckon he’ll be the next prime minister.

And yet, there is one significant issue Farage still has to deal with before he can confidently assume he’ll move into Downing Street after the next election.

Nigel Farage Odds

The latest Farage betting odds make for positive reading for Reform UK workers. 

Farage is 7/4 with BetMGM to succeed Sir Keir Starmer as prime minister from 2/1 in May.

Reform are now Evens (50% likelihood) to win the most seats at the next election, with Labour floundering at 6/4 (40%) with betting apps.

Farage has never had it so good. His messaging has reached swathes of the British public, and support for Reform is growing.

Polls have Reform around seven points ahead of Labour and 13 in front of a beleaguered Conservative party.

If an election were held tomorrow, Reform would probably be the biggest party in Parliament – even if they didn’t earn enough seats to form a majority.

And yet Farage doesn’t need to worry about the maths just yet. 

He still has four years to go until the next UK election, and Labour aren’t about to call a snap vote.

Will Farage Be Prime Minister?

Four years is a very, very long time in politics, but Farage is in a good position. He has support from unhappy Tory and Labour voters who want societal change and don’t believe it’ll come from Starmer’s government.

Populist parties are also gaining support in Europe. While some western democracies - like Canada and Australia - have rejected Trumpism, others are aligning.

The UK’s political landscape is a strange one at present. 

Reform earned four million votes at the 2024 election but only a handful of seats due to the First Past The Post system.

They’d likely fare much better if there were an election today, but Farage’s party is still working to find candidates for the country’s 650 constituencies.

They are still a relatively small party and, crucially, are a protest party. 

When it comes to governing, it’s hard to predict how they would tackle issues like welfare and fiscal policy.

Reform and Farage don’t sit on the traditional “left-right” political scale. Brexit showed us that.

But governing is a lot harder than protesting, and Reform’s introduction to local government could bite them if they don’t prove to be better than the Tories, Labour, Lib Dems and Greens that came before them.

What’s more, voters still prefer Starmer to Farage.

So, will Farage be prime minister? The odds suggest it’s possible but Reform need to prove they can act responsibly over the next four years – and Farage needs to work on his public image. 

If Reform suffer future local election defeats, then that will be an indication of the tide turning.

Can Starmer Beat Farage?

Of course, Farage isn’t the sole keeper of his own fate. Starmer has crossed the political divide to try and lure Reform supporters back to Labour with right-leaning policies, particularly around immigration.

The PM has four years to get it right – plenty of time for a comeback.

The Tories aren’t expected to drop any lower than 17 points in the polls. Kemi Badenoch should soon start to gain support, and where that comes from remains to be seen.

Farage may find his best route to power is to replace Badenoch as Tory leader and merge Reform into the bigger, more established party.

That also comes with risks, given the Conservatives’ negative public perception since the Boris Johnson/Liz Truss days.

Starmer can beat Farage only if Labour deliver prosperity in this parliament. Voters flocked to Reform because they wanted change and to feel better off.

Yes, the conversation gets mired in anti-immigration, anti-elitist rhetoric, but in the end, it comes down to money. Farage is promising the world and Starmer is shackled with reality.

It’s going to be an interesting few years.