Nigel Farage Betting Odds: Could Reform UK Leader Become Next Prime Minister?

Betting sites believe Nigel Farage will lead Reform UK to victory at the next UK election and become the new prime minister.

Bookmakers have tipped Farage for No 10 ever since Reform started outstripping Labour in the polls last autumn.

Farage – who spearheaded the Brexit vote in 2016 – is an MP for Clacton and has overseen a groundswell in support of right-wing populism. He has his eyes set on Downing Street.

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The bookies are keeping a close watch on the former City of London trader, aware that his party holds a significant poll lead.

Reform are not anywhere near 50 points in the polls but the UK’s electoral system, which harmed the party in 2024, could deliver a massive majority next time.

Political betting sites reckon Farage will eventually get a stab at the big job – even if he has to wait until 2029 for power.

Nigel Farage Odds

Farage’s odds of becoming the next prime minister have shortened over the summer to a fresh new price of just 7/4. 

That carries a 36.4% likelihood, which is by far the shortest price of any figure in British politics right now.

Farage’s party is 4/5 (55.6%) with betting apps to win the most seats at the next general election.

The polls suggest Reform will win more seats than Labour or the Conservatives, but may not secure a majority. 

So, Farage may end up being prime minister in a coalition – possibly with the Tories as the smaller party.

The fresh odds come as Farage basks in the wake of Reform’s successful party conference, where he took the challenge to Labour.

Reform may only have a handful of MPs in parliament but they are the most recognisable opposition to Sir Keir Starmer’s government right now.

Will Farage Be Prime Minister?

Farage’s stock is also growing in America – despite a recent takedown from Democrat lawmakers. 

His affiliation with Donald Trump is helping to generate greater support for Reform back home.

A focus on immigration has helped Reform grow from a small rebel party to one of real significance.

The test in time will be whether Farage can acutely express his party’s economic policies. 

Currently, Reform is considered a one-issue party – that of reducing immigration as a means of generating prosperity in the country.

But one-issue parties rarely succeed, especially when they take office, they’re also incredibly divisive.

Farage may be popular among his supporters but he carries a -29 favourably rating.

According to recent polls, voters would prefer Starmer to be prime minister over Farage.

This exposes a weakness in Farage’s robust armour. His supporters love him, but a majority of the country do not want him in power.

Farage may be saved by the same political system that denied his party scores of seats in 2024.

The UK’s First Past The Post (FPTP) system means candidates do not need more than 50% of the vote to secure victory in a seat. 

Reform, assuming they field enough candidates, could swoop to a majority at the 2029 election via small but consistent wins in the FPTP system.

That is how Labour won a historically-high majority in 2024 despite commanding one-third of the vote share.

Farage is in position to exploit record-low approval ratings for the Tories and Labour and pick up constituency wins without securing majority votes. 

That is why his odds on being PM – and Reform’s odds of winning the most seats – are so low.

Can Starmer Stop Farage?

Can Starmer stop him? It may already be too late. 

The PM is dogged in governmental issues, and the country is struggling to escape its economic spiral.

Starmer is scrambling to retain control of the Labour party, let alone the country. 

His large majority means he does not have to call a snap election, but there is a big risk he is ousted by backbenchers before the next election.

This adds another twist to the betting markets. Farage may be favourite to be the next prime minister but Labour may dump their leader before he gets that chance. 

Labour’s health secretary Wes Streeting is 5/1 to be the next PM.

Betting on Farage is never easy when he perpetually changes shape to suit his political aims. 

However, he is closer to power than ever before – and punters seem to recognise this.

Do you think Nigel Farage will be Britain's next PM? Let us know in the comments below!