Nigel Farage Betting Odds: Could Reform UK Leader Become Next Prime Minister?

Nigel Farage is the frontrunner to be the UK’s next prime minister but his road to power is not as straightforward as the polls suggest.

Farage’s Reform UK party sit 35% in the polls after a largely successful – and professional – party conference where the leader stole the show.

A significant plunge in support for the Conservatives and Labour’s seeming inability to stop voters shifting to Reform means Farage’s party would likely win the most seats at a snap election.

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According to the odds offered by betting sites, the Reform UK leader as the most likely politician to succeed Sir Keir Starmer in No 10.

But his prospects of being prime minister next have significant hurdles to overcome, which punters appear to be aware of when betting on politics.

Indeed, while Farage is enjoying the limelight right now, the true test of his electability is still to come.

And that uncertainty is causing small shifts in the politics betting markets.

Next UK Prime Minister Odds

Farage Odds Widen

Perhaps surprisingly, Farage’s odds of being the next UK prime minister have widened since Reform’s party conference. Having once been 7/4 to succeed Starmer, he’s now 3/1 on betting apps.

Those odds represent a 25% possibility, a shift from the 36.4% likelihood enjoyed this summer.

He’s still the favourite in the race – but why are his odds widening?

That's because there’s an increasing chance of Labour ditching Starmer and replacing him before Farage has a stab at Downing Street at the next election.

Both Andy Burnham (4/1) and Wes Streeting (5/1) have seen their odds of being the next prime minister come in this October.

But it’s not just the prospect of a Labour leadership change that is affecting Farage’s odds.

Farage Not Guaranteed Power

Other factors at play mean the architect of Brexit is far from guaranteed the top job in British politics.

For a start, Reform’s long-term popularity is unknown. They’re ahead in the polls right now but not by enough to secure a hefty majority at an upcoming election.

Going from five MPs to surpassing the 325 threshold needed to govern as a majority in one electoral cycle is huge. The party is, arguably, not big enough yet to sustain a genuine parliamentary challenge.

Reform recently had to lower its eligibility criteria for candidates wishing to stand in seats – a move that comes with difficulties as some vetting processes will be overlooked.

Even if Reform do post enough candidates to genuinely challenge at the next election, Farage isn’t guaranteed power.

Remember, the public won’t vote on a new government again until 2029 and Labour have no appetite to call a snap election.

A lot can change in four years – a resurgence for Labour and the Conservatives is eminently viable.

Reform are 10/11 favourites to win the most seats at the next election but only 6/4 (40% likelihood) to secure a majority.

It is likely that the UK will stumble towards a hung parliament in 2029, an eventuality that could harm Farage.

Why? Because Reform would need another party to support their government. The Tories are the only viable option here, but would almost certainly not want to play second-fiddle in a coalition.

Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP won’t countenance working with Reform – they’re more likely to forge an alliance themselves to shut out the right.

Farage Needs Options

Farage’s hopes of being prime minister rest on either Reform securing a difficult majority in 2029, cajoling another party into coalition, or a third, nuclear option.

That option is Farage merging Reform with the Tories and him taking over as Conservative leader.

That would give him the political scope to properly challenge for government and the deep-rooted expertise to govern effectively.

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The Conservatives’ brand is rock-bottom after 14 years in power came to an end in 2024.

Perhaps Farage is on the right course already. Reform may get stronger even with a Labour/Tory revival. 

If not in 2029, then perhaps at another election.

After all, Farage is priced at 4/5 (55.6%) to be PM before 2040 - he has time on his hands.

Do you think Nigel Farage will be Britain's next PM? Let us know in the comments below!