Rhys Williams' Racing Tips: 5 Selections For Friday
Horse racing expert Rhys Williams is sharing his best selections for today's racing.
Rhys has been a racing analyst for over 10 years, working for At The Races and most recently as a tipster for Betfair, where his tipping column had a 31% ROI over four and a half years.
He often focuses away from the front end of the market, finding angles that aren't evident to most.
Rhys' tips have returned 332.12 points from 196.5 points staked, meaning his profit and loss record stands at a whopping +135.62pts overall - thanks to a sensational recent spell that included Lamar Canyon's win at 150/1 recently.
Here are Rhys' tips for today, using the most up-to-date odds from the best horse racing betting sites.
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13:30 Chester: Maxi Boy - 0.5pt Win @ 8/1
Maxi Boy’s mark has gradually been on the decline and it might be that age is catching up with him, but I think he can run well under today’s circumstances and arrest the decline.
He ran well over course and distance last year when returning from a long absence, finishing one place ahead of Spirit Genie who he reopposes on better terms.
It might be that he was in need of a break when his form on the all-weather took a dip earlier this year, and he ran an encouraging race on his return to action at Doncaster.
He moved into the lead two furlongs out before being picked off late on by more patiently ridden rivals and faded into fourth.
I’m hoping that will have put him Maxi Boy spot on for today, and he’s well drawn in stall one to be able to get a good position behind the leaders early on.
Eireann Cagney is also a positive jockey booking in a race of this type, and while there’s been some early money for Maxi Boy, I think he’s still a little overpriced and any 15/2 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 1: 13:30 Chester: Maxi Boy - 0.5pt Win
13:30 Chester: Kindest Nation - 0.5pt Win @ 40/1
Kindest Nation is returning from a break in the same race and I think the market is overlooking her chance.
She’s rarely had much of a break in her career, but she ran very well at this track on her return from a 201-day absence last year when finishing third off a 15lb higher mark.
Her form dipped in the face of some tough challenges after that, but she showed that she was still capable of running well off this sort of mark, first on the turf at Haydock and then when winning at Newcastle.
It may be that her last two runs were a sign that Kindest Nation was in need of a break, and since she does look a bit quirky, it might be that fresh is the ideal time to catch her.
As well as that seasonal debut last year, she also holds a victory over course and distance as a three-year-old, so returning to this track is a positive for her chance too.
There is a concern that she can start slowly and maybe amateur handling isn’t what she needs, but I think she’s too big in a race of this quality and any 16/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 2: 13:30 Chester: Kindest Nation - 0.5pt Win
14:02 Chester: Trust Havana - 0.5pts Each-Way @ 80/1
Trust Havana was well held on her debut over this course and distance, but I think she could be capable of taking a significant step forward and running better than her big price suggests.
She has been seen twice on a racecourse this year, the first of those being at the breeze ups where it was surprising just how green she was for a horse turning up at one of those sales.
Therefore, it wasn’t a surprise that her inexperience showed in the early stages of her debut at this track, being slowly away and racing at the back of the field.
She got a bit unbalanced at the cutaway in the straight, but she did manage to pass one rival in Koodini who reopposes today and is a fair bit shorter in the market.
I think there’s the potential for Trust Havana to be much sharper for that experience and take a similar step forward from debut to second start as stablemate Trust Amy did last season.
It may be that Trust Havana will need a bit further to show her best and being drawn in stall nine may not be ideal, but I think she’s too big given her potential for improvement and any 25/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 3: 14:02 Chester: Trust Havana - 0.5pts Each-Way
16:55 Chester: Trust Amy - 0.5pt Win @ 16/1
The aforementioned Trust Amy lines up in this sprint handicap and I think she can bounce back from a slightly disappointing run over course and distance last time.
She was a winner over course and distance as a two-year-old, and shaped promisingly on her seasonal debut in much deeper company in a Listed race at Haydock.
Last time, she was a bit slow away and then got tightened up on the rail, and that seemed to cause her to lose focus as she suddenly got detached at the back of the field and she couldn’t get competitive from that position but made some late headway.
I think the ground was quicker than ideal for Trust Amy last time, so the softer conditions today will be in her favour and the likely good pace should suit her too.
There is the worry that she could once again find herself too far back if not switching on from the start, but I think she’s overpriced in a race of this level and any double-figure prices appeal.
Rhys' Selection 4: 16:55 Chester: Trust Amy - 0.5pt Win
19:55 Fairyhouse: Bell Ex Too - 0.5pts Each-Way @ 18/1
I expect we will likely see Bell Ex Too back at this track over hurdles later in the year, but I’m hopeful he can make an impact on the flat before then and build on the promise of his first two starts.
He was in a strong contest on debut at the Curragh and ran respectably in the circumstances.
He faced lesser company when stepped up to this trip at Dundalk last time and he still looked quite green that day.
He always looked a little on the back foot and was outpaced when the pace lifted turning into the home straight, but finished off well to take fifth.
I’m expecting this to be run at a more generous pace, which I think will help his cause, and I think this track could be more suitable for Bell Ex Too as well.
It may be that he would ideally want the ground to be a bit softer, but he looks overpriced in a race that may not have much depth in quality and any double-figure prices appeal.
Rhys' Selection 5: 19:55 Fairyhouse: Bell Ex Too - 0.5pts Each-Way
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