Rhys Williams' Racing Tips: 5 Selections For Friday
Horse racing expert Rhys Williams is sharing his best selections for today's racing.
Rhys has been a racing analyst for over 10 years, working for At The Races and most recently as a tipster for Betfair where his tipping column had a 31% ROI over four and a half years.
He often focuses away from the front end of the market, finding angles that aren't evident to most.
Thanks to his recent winners, Rhys' tips have returned 119.43 points from 108 points staked, meaning his profit and loss record stands at 11.43pts overall.
Here are Rhys' tips for Friday, using the most up-to-date odds from the best horse racing betting sites.
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13:45 Ayr: Castle Ivers - 1pt Win @ 5/1
Castle Ivers has only had one start over hurdles and is returning from a long absence, but I think he has a good chance to make it two from two on his handicap debut.
He showed plenty of ability in bumpers before running as though something was wrong when finishing tailed off in the Grade 2 bumper at Aintree.
On his return to action and hurdling debut at Warwick last season, I thought he was more superior than the winning margin over Don’t Mind If I Do suggested.
Castle Ivers raced keener than ideal early on and was ridden a bit more patiently than his main rivals as a result.
He was still only sixth turning out of the back straight before moving smoothly to track Don’t Mind If I Do on the run to two out.
Castle Ivers had to be switched as that rival shifted right and he quickened well on the run-in to get the better of him.
If he still retains the ability that he’s shown so far in his career, I think Castle Ivers has the potential to be a fair bit better than a rating of 120 - and this is a slightly unusual 0-130 at a notable festival as the only two horses rated above 120 are juvenile hurdlers.
There is a worry that Castle Ivers may be too keen on the back of a long break and he lacks the experience of his rivals, but I think he should be closer to the head of the market and any 9/2 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 1: 13:45 Ayr - Castle Ivers - 1pt Win
13:45 Ayr: Tuppence - 0.5pt Win @ 25/1
In the same race at a much bigger price, I wouldn’t be as surprised as the market if Tuppence showed more back down in trip this afternoon.
She was in the process of showing promise on debut at Senonnes when unseating before moving to Lucinda Russell.
Tuppence ran well for a long way on stable debut at Kelso when fading late on and finishing fourth behind Dedicated Hero.
However, she ran badly on her two subsequent starts that season, but after having a year off and returning with a hood on, she ran much better at Musselburgh when ridden very patiently and finished second to Roses All The Way.
They decided to completely switch tactics last time as Tuppence made the running and I’m not sure that was ideal for her given the hurdles were out in the home straight.
I think a strongly run race over this trip could be the ideal scenario for Tuppence, and she has the additional benefit of a promising young jockey in Lucas Murphy taking off 7lb.
It might be that this quality of race is a bit too strong for Tuppence - or that she wants a small field - but I can’t let her go unbacked at such a big price given her potential for better.
Any 20/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 2: 13:45 Ayr: Tuppence - 0.5pt Win
15:42 Newbury: Alfaraz - 1pt Each-Way @ 8/1
There are some promising types in this novice race and it’s one of those who has yet to win who appeals at the prices on his seasonal debut.
Alfaraz showed a good level of ability in both starts last season, finishing second on each occasion.
On debut at Goodwood, he was a bit awkwardly away from the stalls and raced at the back of the field approaching the bend turning into the home straight.
He made smooth headway on the inside and responded well to pressure, but could never quite get to the more prominently ridden Ancient Egypt who has previous experience.
On his second start at Epsom, Alfaraz was once again slowly away from the stalls but ended up making the running in the three-runner field.
I’m not sure that scenario suited him and he was picked off by the speedier Shayem but kept responding well to finish second.
He faced a couple of very good rivals in those races and performed creditably in the circumstances.
I think the step up in trip could bring more improvement from Alfaraz and hopefully he will sharper away from the stalls today.
There is the unknown over how ready he will be for this first start of the season, but given that he’s got an entry in the Dante, I’m expecting him to be fit enough to give them an ideal of whether he’s up to that class or not.
Any 6/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 3: 15:42 Newbury - Alfaraz - 1pt Each-Way
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17:25 Newbury: Montezin - 0.5pts Each-Way @ 20/1
It may turn out that Cindy Lou Who has taken a huge step forward as a four-year-old and be too well handicapped for her rivals, but one of the opposition makes some appeal on their handicap debut.
Montezin has only had three starts and they have all been on the all weather.
He showed promise on debut at Wolverhampton when running on well to finish second before filling the same spot at Newcastle, when racing far too keenly without any cover in the small field.
It was a similar story last time when he raced on his own down the centre of the track for much of the race before moving over to join Raveena and go past her late on with the third, seven lengths behind.
The circumstances weren’t ideal for Montezin in either of his final two starts, so both of those performances can be upgraded.
I think a big field where he can get plenty of cover over this trip could bring out the best in him.
There is the unknown over whether he can transfer that all weather form to turf, but there’s nothing to suggest it should be an issue.
There’s some early pace drawn near him towards the stands side and any double-figure prices appeal.
Rhys' Selection 4: 17:25 Newbury - Montezin - 0.5pts Each-Way
17:40 Exeter: Mr Jukebox - 1pt Win @ 8/1
Mr Jukebox makes his handicap debut at Exeter this evening and I’m hoping to see him ridden at least a bit closer to the pace than has been the case on his three starts over hurdles so far.
He showed ability on both starts in bumpers before making his hurdling debut at Southwell.
He was dropped out at the back of the field that day and he made some headway to be in contention with the chasing pack behind Desertmore News before fading late on to finish fifth.
He was held up in last once again next time at Huntingdon and was still nearly 30 lengths behind the leader jumping three out before running on to finish third.
Mr Jukebox was never competitive under another very patient ride at Wincanton last time, being hampered on landing at two out didn’t help his cause either.
The promise that he’s shown from highly unpromising positions on a couple of those starts over hurdles - and the ability he’s shown in bumper - suggests a mark of 97 could underplay Mr Jukebox’s ability, if he’s able to build on that under a more prominent ride.
It may turn out that he’s another horse from this yard to not progress from the ability they show in bumpers, but I think this looks a good opportunity for him - particularly if Stinginhisstep needs the run after a break.
Any 4/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 5: 17:40 Exeter - Mr Jukebox - 1pt Win
Odds correct at time of publishing!
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