Rhys Williams' Racing Tips: 4 Selections For Saturday
Horse racing expert Rhys Williams is sharing his best selections for today's racing.
Rhys has been a racing analyst for over 10 years, working for At The Races and most recently as a tipster for Betfair where his tipping column had a 31% ROI over four and a half years.
He often focuses away from the front end of the market, finding angles that aren't evident to most.
Rhys' tips have returned 242.62 points from 159 points staked, meaning his profit and loss record stands at +83.62pts overall - thanks to a sensational recent spell that includes a 33/1 and a trio of 28/1 winning selections recently.
Here are Rhys' tips for today - plus his Lockinge Stakes selection, using the most up-to-date odds from the best horse racing betting sites.
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14:10 Bangor: Noble Don - 0.5pt Win @ 50/1
There could be two races for the price of one in the opening contest at Bangor, but I think there’s a chance that one of those at a big price could be more of a danger to the front pair than the market suggests.
Noble Don started his career in the British pointing field and showed some ability, when finishing second in a maiden to Disco Davis who went on to achieve a peak rating of 116 over hurdles.
After finishing seventh in a bumper on his rules debut, Noble Don was off the track for over two years before returning at Haydock where he was pulled up.
He was in much deeper company than he faces today on his latest outing at Newbury, and I thought he showed that he might still retain at least some of the ability that he had early in his career in that performance after being ridden patiently.
It may be that handicaps and a longer trip will be where Noble Don has the best opportunity to show his full ability, but there’s very little depth to this contest and I wouldn’t be as surprised as the market if he was to be competitive.
Any 25/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 1: 14:10 Bangor: Noble Don - 0.5pt Win
14:55 Navan: Xerling - 1pt Win @ 6/1
Xerling certainly showed signs of temperament when flashing her tail at Naas, but she also showed plenty of speed that day and I think she has a good chance of getting off the mark on her seasonal debut.
She hadn’t shown much on debut at Fairyhouse, but stepped up significantly on that at Naas when soon in the lead despite not breaking too sharply.
She opened up a clear advantage over her rivals and had them all at work with two furlongs to go.
She flashed her tail when coming under stronger pressure, but it didn’t seem to stop her from going forward as she was still in front half a furlong out before being caught and finishing fourth.
Xerling was well held in Listed company next time, but she was hampered at the start and ended up much further back than I expect they had planned so that can be forgiven.
It is a bit concerning that she has been a shade slowly away - now that she drops to five furlongs for her seasonal debut - as she could find herself squeezed between rivals if that happens again today.
However, I think she certainly has the speed for this test given what she showed at Naas and while she might be tiring up the hill, I’m hopeful that she can hold on.
Any 4/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 2: 14:55 Navan: Xerling - 1pt Win
18:02 Doncaster: Frio - 0.5pt Win @ 10/1
Frio is another maiden sprinter to be making their seasonal debut, and in his case it’s also a stable debut as he makes his first start for Seb Spencer.
He was a big eyecatcher on debut at Musselburgh over five furlongs when outpaced early on and trailing the main pack.
He made up plenty of late ground to finish third behind Dickensian, who won a Listed race at York earlier this week.
Frio was sent off favourite for his next start at York and could only finish fourth, but I thought that race didn’t pan out to suit him, and he looked in need of further and was quite awkward under pressure.
Whatever was causing that to happen, could be the reason why he’s been off the track for a year since.
It may be that he will be in need of the run today or won’t quite be the same horse that he promised to be, from that debut effort.
However, I think the step up to six furlongs suits him and he can be more of a danger to the front trio than the market suggests.
Any 7/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 3: 18:02 Doncaster: Frio - 0.5pt Win
Lockinge Stakes
(Newbury, Saturday 14:35):
Sahlan - 1pt Each-Way @ 14/1
Sahlan finished behind Notable Speech and The Lion In Winter when last seen at the Breeders Cup, but I think he has the potential to reverse that form in the Lockinge on Saturday.
He got a bit upset in the stalls at Del Mar and didn’t look at all suited by the track, being shuffled back around the final turn before running on to finish fifth while carrying his tail awkwardly.
Prior to that, he put up an excellent performance when winning the Moulin at Longchamp, holding off the late challenge of Rosallion and finishing ahead of The Lion In Winter.
Given his gradual improvement last season, I’m hopeful that there will be more to come from Sahlan, and I think this straight mile will be a far more suitable test for him than Del Mar.
There is the slight concern that he doesn’t have the benefit of a recent run that others do, but I think the market is overlooking his chance and any double-figure prices appeal.
Rhys' Lockinge Stakes Ante-Post: Newbury (Saturday 14:35): Sahlan - 1pt Each-Way
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