What Are The Odds On A Second Brexit Referendum?

Betting sites believe there is a 10% chance the UK holds a second Brexit referendum within the next decade as the country seeks to “reset” its relationship with the European Union.

Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party has insisted it has no desire to rejoin the single market and unravel the 52-48 result of the 2016 Brexit referendum.

However, the government has for months been trying to improve relations with the UK’s closest trading block, in the hope of delivering economic prosperity and, ironically, cutting the red tape created by Brexit.

Labour’s move comes at a time when Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party is surging in the polls and claims to have more members than the Conservative party.

Yet not all Reform voters backed Brexit in 2016 or necessarily agree with the decision now, meaning bookmakers have struggled to accurately set their odds on such a divisive topic.

And it appears as though there is a small chance that Remainers who are pushing for a second referendum could get their wish before 2035.

Latest Brexit Odds

Indeed, bookmaker William Hill recently cut its odds on a Brexit referendum taking place in 2034 to 9/1 – a price that indicates a 10% probability. 

That might not sound like much but it reflects the possibility – albeit small – that the UK could hold another referendum on EU membership within the next decade.

It would also mark almost 20 years since the first Brexit referendum, at which point demographic, political and population changes across the country could deliver a very different outcome.

Interestingly, political betting sites still think a referendum is more likely to come in 2035 or beyond, at 2/9. 

They also doubt there is a realistic chance of it happening until 2029 – potentially because that’s when Donald Trump’s second term as US president comes to an end.

There is also the Farage factor to consider here. The Reform leader is polling well but there are still four more years to come until the next election. 

If Reform’s vote collapses during that time and the Conservatives cannot mount a strong opposition to Labour and the Liberal Democrats, then perhaps the campaign for a second referendum will get louder.

Referendum Odds Defy Polls

What’s more interesting still is that the odds appear to be defying the polls. Data from the past few months continually suggests Brexit was a bad idea.

Labour is thought to be handling the issue of Brexit no better than the Tories, according to a YouGov poll. 

Starmer’s only positive, here, is that more people aren’t sure how well Labour is doing in its dealings with the EU.

This uncertainty is itself good for Labour, and Starmer will hope that a fresh “reset” of relations will lead to improved ties all round with the trading block.

The polls clearly want the UK to have a better relationship with the EU, yet the odds suggest that probably won’t result in a second referendum.

Why? Perhaps because figures like Farage – backed by a Trump White House and influential figures like Elon Musk – are in the public spotlight. 

As an MP, Farage now has real power to wield and his influence is changing the face of British politics.

Get even a whiff of a second referendum and Farage will seek to unleash hell on the government - particularly if it’s a Labour one. 

Labour can’t afford to lose Brexit voters to Reform or the Conservatives, so would almost certainly back down.

The 2016 Brexit vote remains the defining point of Britain’s society and economy since the 2008 financial crash, and the country is still feeling the effects of the vote to this day.

Neither Labour nor the Tories want to reopen the debate, while Reform definitely won’t. The Liberal Democrats aren’t strong enough on their own to carry the cause for rejoining the EU.

Betting apps, it seem, are being generous by giving a second referendum even a 10% chance of another referendum happening before 2035.