What Are The Odds On A Second Brexit Referendum?

Betting sites believe there is practically no chance of the UK holding a second Brexit referendum within the next decade – despite Labour’s efforts to align closer to the single market.

Polling data suggests 57% of Brits would prefer to rejoin the EU, nine years after the era-defining Brexit vote.

The UK officially decoupled from the European Union in 2020 but just 11% of the population believe the move has been a success thus far.

And yet, there appears to be little appetite in frontline politics to push for a second referendum, with Labour, the Conservatives and Reform UK all steadfast in their refusal to consider it.

Labour’s position in the debate is particularly pertinent, as Sir Keir Starmer has recently pushed for tougher immigration controls – a supposed benefit of Brexit during the 2016 campaign – that gazumps the Tories.

His decision to cross the divide and countenance implementing a staunch right-wing policy is an evident effort to cut Reform’s recent momentum.

And it effectively dashes any hope from Remainers of Starmer calling a Brexit referendum in this parliament.

Latest Brexit Odds

Bookmaker William Hill have gone one further and believe there’s practically no chance the UK holds a second Brexit referendum in the next two parliaments. 

Political betting sites have set a fresh price of 1/8 on no referendum until 2035 at the latest.

Those odds carry an 88.9% probability, which reflects the expectation that Labour won’t seek to push for a referendum.

The bookies also pushed their odds on a referendum taking place in 2034 from 9/1 to 12/1. That is the shortest single-year price on when a Brexit vote could take place and reflects the low likelihood of it happening.

So, why is there seemingly no chance of a second referendum at a time when the majority of the British public would probably vote to rejoin the EU?

The answer is Reform and Nigel Farage. Reform’s astronomical rise over the past 12 months has spooked Labour and completely rocked the Conservatives.

They are now polling well above the Tories and alongside Labour. While they only have six seats in Parliament, a swathe of local election victories in May shows the momentum is still there.

Will Reform Block EU Vote?

Reform stems from the Brexit Party and has attracted a lot of UKIP voters from who helped push the Leave vote in 2016. While its aims are now greater than simply leaving the European Union, this principle is at its core. It’s what Farage made his political career on. They won’t surrender it without a fight.

Labour is trying to figure out how to bring their voters back from Reform. That’s why they’re developing tougher immigration policies and are yet to suggest rejoining the European Union

However, they’re also trying to align more closely with the EU on trade and employment. A recent suggestion they strike an EU-UK “youth mobility scheme” – which effectively gives young people freedom of movement – is a small step in the alignment direction without totally ripping up Brexit.

Sir Keir Starmer is walking a tightrope, trying to be tough on some things and relaxed on others. If it works, Labour could start drawing more support from Reform. Whether that would ever be enough to shift the conversation towards a second referendum, it’s too early to tell.

The government has chosen a path of “let’s make this work and hope we’re right”, rather than “it’s not working, so let’s change”. The majority of Reform voters want Brexit to work, which is why Labour are willing to give it a go.

The difficulty will come if Labour’s economic policies don’t bring prosperity. Does the blame then fall on Brexit, or those trying to implement Brexit? 

In the end, the Tories lost the last election because they weren’t trusted to implement it. Those in charge of Brexit – not Brexit itself – were seen as the problem.

Brexiteers believe Farage and Reform can produce benefits from Brexit, while Remainers hope Labour can, at the very least, soften the negatives of leaving the EU.

Labour can’t call for a second referendum for fear they’d lose more support to Reform. So, Farage has Starmer in a bind.

That’s why the betting apps reckon it’ll be a decade at least before the conversation surfaces again. 

We can champion the great things and grumble about the problems of Brexit but it’s not going away any time soon. Farage won’t let it.