US Election Odds 2028: Vance Price Hints At Victory

Bookmakers believe JD Vance is the clear frontrunner to win the 2028 US presidential election and succeed Donald Trump in the White House.

However, punters are not quite so confident the vice president will succeed Trump and secure another electoral victory for the Republicans.

Vance has enjoyed a whirlwind start to life as America's second-most powerful person. 

He’s been at the forefront of many of Trump’s policy initiatives, chastised European nations for their immigration policies and lambasted Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office.

He’s also set foot on Greenland to push Trump’s efforts to take over the island – a controversial move among NATO allies and Greenlanders alike.

Vance was once considered a risky choice for Trump as his vice presidential nominee but has proven his loyalty to the president over the past eight months.

He is now in a position where the Republican party may have little choice but to back his candidacy for president in 2028 if, as expected, Trump hands over the reins to the former Ohio senator in 2028.

Online betting sites see little alternative to Vance being the next president, yet punters' pushback might soon cause them to shift their odds.

JD Vance Odds

Indeed, BetMGM’s 2028 US election odds price Vance at 5/2 to win. That price carries a 28.6% probability and is way ahead of any other candidate seemingly eyeing the election.

Vance’s odds dropped as soon as Trump won the 2024 election. The president’s right-hand man is almost certain to get Trump’s endorsement when it comes to choosing his successor.

So, much of the betting activity is focused on who could rival Vance from the Democratic side. Josh Shapiro, Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg are all widely priced at 12/1 or beyond.

Were it not for the faint whiff of speculation that Trump might seek a third term in office, Vance is the only horse in this race.

US Presidential Odds 2028

Who Are Vance’s Main Rivals?

And yet, punters aren’t backing Vance to the extent as betting apps. 

Only one-quarter of all bets on the 2028 US election have gone to Vance. The rest of the market is spread fairly evenly across a huge range of candidates – from Newsom and Trump, to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ivanka Trump and even Michelle Obama.

There is no real consensus on who will run for the presidency in 2028, with Vance the only figure punters and bookies expected to enter the contest.

This gives Vance an early edge. He has three years to massage his reputation as Trump’s natural successor in order to be perfectly positioned to moonwalk through the GOP primaries in early 2028.

Tulsi Gabbard (25/1) might seek to enter the race, but she'll have a lot of catching up to do if she wants to topple Vance.

It already looks as though the 2028 US election will be a coin toss between Vance and an as-yet-unknown Democrat.

Will Vance Be President?

Vance is only 40 and has rapidly risen in the Republican party. He can now act on his policy ideas more so than at any point in his career. The next three years will be a test of his presidential capabilities.

If elected in 2028, Vance would be the same age as Barack Obama was in 2008. Since Obama's second term ended, America has had veterans in charge, so Vance could offer voters a fresh, young option for a change.

His political success still rests on Trump, though. Stay on the president's right side, and Vance will earn Trump’s bedrock of support.

He needs this backing in order to finance a costly push for the White House.

If the cracks between the president and his VP start to show, Vance could be out the door very quickly.

We saw a glimpse of this during the leaked “war plans” scandal when Vance seemed to go against the president during conversations about a military strike in Yemen earlier this year.

The pair seem fairly comfortable with each other at present, even if it is only a day in Trump’s political world. Vance must tread a fine line between now and the Republican primaries if he’s to lead the GOP ticket in 2028.