Juan Soto Next Team Odds: Will the Big Markets Make the Move?
I suppose the baseball gods became jealous when the NBA news surfaced surrounding the Brooklyn Nets and disgruntled superstar Kevin Durant demanding a trade last month.
Only MLB could take a last-place team, like the Nationals, with a league-worst 31-63 record, and put them front and center on MLB’s All-Star Game, with only one all-star from that team.
All it took was a refusal by Soto, the 23-year-old phenom, to walk away from a 15-year $440 million contract, to get attention swirling.
Well, I am here to provide you with potentially money-making opportunities once the sportsbook release odds on what franchise Soto will be part of moving forward.
If the Nationals elect to trade him, Soto will command the maximum return value right now. With the three years left on the existing contract, the team that wins the Soto sweepstakes would arguably have him for three regular seasons and potentially three postseasons.
So, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo could trade him now and look to fill as many holes as possible in this Swiss cheese roster and then look to re-sign him in three years when they are back to playoff and World Series contention.
The next question becomes what franchises in MLB have enough assets to meet the meteoric price tag that Soto commands in the market.
Nats Ownership Situation Could Change Things
Mark Lerner is the principal owner of the Nationals and the principal owner of Lerner Enterprises.
The franchise is being sold and the new owner might be determined by year-end.
So, this brings up the fact that the current ownership might elect to keep Soto and let the new owners determine his fate.
The uncertainty surrounding this situation must be why Soto did not sign the extension because he has no idea what any new owner’s rebuild plans might be for the future.
So, even if the Lerners raised the extension to, say, $500 million, Soto would still not sign any extension.
Yankees the Favorites
My odds-on favorite is the New York Yankees because they have the money and because Aaron Judge is in the final year of his contract.
Judge turned down contract extensions before the start of the season to bet on himself. With an MLB-leading 33 home runs, he will command a truckload of cash when free agency begins.
If the Yankees get Soto now, they essentially lock in their World Series appearance. They sign an extension with Soto preventing any chance that he will leave after the 2024 season and Judge then becomes the next “Where will he land” whirlwind.
Another possibility is the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are built to win now. One question is: Does L.A. want to possibly face an already frightening Yankee lineup in the World Series that adds Soto?
Or maybe the Dodgers hope that the Yankees get Soto. That way, they might be the front-runner to land Judge.
The Dodgers’ farm system is one of the best and deepest in baseball. They have moved top prospects in previous seasons to complete blockbuster trades and with the regression of Cody Bellinger in the outfield, Soto is a natural fit and seven years younger than Judge.
Is the Other New York Team a Contender?
Mets owner Steve Cohen has deep pockets and has spent enormous sums of money and gotten a strong return. So, the Mets would be favored if not because they are in the same division as the Nationals.
This fact makes it unlikely a deal could be reached between the two N.L. East franchises.
Here are My Odds for These Franchises to Land Soto
The following odds are my fair value estimates and can be used against existing odds.
Take the odds, for instance, the Yankees at +250 and compare the odds offered on other sports betting websites.
If my number is lower, you have value to bet on that team because you are getting paid more than my odds should the bet win the Soto sweepstakes.
I think Soto will end up in the Bronx before the trade deadline.
My sleeper bet would be the Philadelphia Phillies.
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