MLB Betting Advice For Games on the Aug. 16 Schedule
Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under or moneyline bets on other games.
American League Best Bet
Tampa Bay Rays +150 at New York Yankees -170
8:05 p.m. ET
The analytics had correctly forecasted a regression from the New York Yankees' domination of opponents through June 30.
Since July 1, the Yankees are 16-23, ranking 23 in MLB, averaging a -180 moneyline wager and producing a horrid -30% ROI.
They have the second-worst record in MLB at 3-11 over their past 14 games and are averaging a -156 moneyline wager, resulting in a -65% ROI.
As you can see, the market has adjusted its’ pricing of the Yankees, but they continue to lose money for their backers.
Situational Trends and Angles
Here is what the trends and angles look like in this matchup.
- Any team, like the Yankees, that is 25 or more games over .500, in games played after the All-Star break, and has won not more than five of their last 15 games, has produced a 32-42 record, averaging a -145 moneyline bet resulting in a -45% ROI.
- The Yankees are 11-20, losing 21 units on the moneyline when facing a foe that is averaging .6 or fewer errors per game in the second half of each of the past two seasons.
I am betting the Rays using the moneyline, priced at +140 as offered at BetMGM.
National League Best Bet
San Diego Padres -150 at Miami Marlins +140
6:40 p.m. ET
The Padres keep saying the right things as they move on from the Fernando Tatis, Jr. suspension, but no matter what, any team would miss a player that talented.
Still, they have won four of their past six games, batting .329 and scoring 6.50 runs per game. Manny Machado is batting .458 with two home runs and 10 RBI over his last five games.
The Marlins won for only the eighth time in their last 28 games when they took Game 1 of this three-game series on Monday.
The Marlins won 3-0 behind another brilliant pitching performance by Sandy Alcantara, who is 11-5 in 24 starts with a 1.92 ERA and .942 WHIP and is the prohibitive favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award.
With the win, the Marlins are an MLB-worst 16 consecutive games scoring three or fewer runs.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational betting trends and angles support a bet on the Marlins.
- The Padres are 17-21 for a -24% Roi when facing a team with a winning percentage between 38% and 45%.
- The Padres are 17-26 for a -24% ROI when facing a team that is batting .240 or lower in the second half of each of the past two seasons.
- Padres starting pitcher Sean Manaea is 0-6, losing seven units on the moneyline in road games and facing a foe that averages seven or fewer runners left on base.
I will bet the Marlins +130 on the moneyline as offered at BetRivers.
Here are some player prop bets to consider today.
- Bet Phillies’ Kyle Gibson Under 2.5 earned runs allowed +108 at Caesars.
- Bet Reds’ Joey Votto to get a hit -230 at PointsBet.
- Bet Blue Jays’ George Springer to get a hit -240 at FanDuel.
- Bet Diamondbacks’ Christian Walker to hit a home run +440 at BetRivers.
- Bet Twins’ Nick Gordon to have 2+ hits +290 at FanDuel.
On the player prop bets, we have gone 12-11 in the last 25 picks with two no plays making $57 per $20 pizza-money wager.
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