MLB Betting Picks for Aug. 30
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
National League Best Bet
LA Dodgers -150 at New York Mets +140
7:10 p.m. ET
This big-time three-game series of National League divisional leading teams might be a preview of the NLCS scheduled in October.
If the season ended today, the Dodgers (89-38, averaging a -203 moneyline wager, resulting in a 9% ROI) and Mets (82-47, averaging a -148 moneyline wager, resulting in a 14% ROI) would be the top seeds. But the Dodgers own an eight-game lead over the Mets in the NL standings.
The Dodgers have a 19.5-game lead over the San Diego Padres in the NL West. That lead allowed manager Dave Roberts to err on the side of caution by placing pitcher Tony Gonsolin on the injured list with right forearm soreness. Gonsolin, tied for the MLB lead with 16 wins, is expected to miss just two starts.
The Dodgers’ pitching depth is exemplified by the expected return of Hall of Fame southpaw Clayton Kershaw later this week. Kershaw has not pitched since Aug. 4.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Dodgers in this matchup.
- The Dodgers are 38-9, making 20 units on the moneyline, when facing a team whose hitters strike out an average of seven or more times per game in the second half of this season.
- The Dodgers are 34-11, making 16 units on the moneyline, when facing a starter with a WHIP of 1.25 or lower.
- Mets starter Taijuan Walker has a 1-10 team record, losing 10 units on the moneyline, when facing a team averaging 1.25 or more-home runs per game in starts made over the past two seasons.
I am betting the Dodgers on the moneyline at -150, as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
American League Best Bet
New York Yankees -165 at L.A. Angels +155
9:38 p.m. ET
Entering last night’s first game of this three-game series against the host L.A. Angels (56-73, averaging -110 moneyline wager, resulting in a -17% ROI) the New York Yankees (78-51, averaging -180 moneyline wager, resulting in a -4% ROI) had lost 16 of their past 22 road games and batting an AL-worst .203 over their last 18 games.
I have stated on dozens of occasions in written and video content since July 1 that fading the Yankees was the best opportunity I had seen in many seasons.
Since July 1, the Yankees are 22-30, ranking 21 in MLB with a -177 moneyline wager average, resulting in a -33% ROI.
Even the AL West last-placed Oakland Athletics have a better record at 22-28 since July 1.
The bullpen has been in shambles and manager Aaron Boone has not been able to find the winning combinations of relief appearances.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational betting angle supports a moneyline wager on the Angels tonight.
- The Yankees are 15-25, losing 22 units on the moneyline, when facing a good fielding foe that averages .6 or fewer errors per game in the second half of this season.
- The Yankees are 8-15, losing 18 units on the moneyline, when facing a team averaging fewer than seven runners stranded on base per game in the second half of this season.
I am going to the window betting the Angels on the moneyline +140 as offered at DraftKings.
Quick Pitches
These are the Player Prop Bets to consider today.
- Bet the Dodgers’ Will Smith to have 2+ hits +230 at FanDuel.
- Bet the Angels’ Mike Trout to hit a home run +260 at BetRivers.
- Bet the Phillies’ Aaron Nola Under 2.5 earned runs allowed -140 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Phillies’ Bryce Harper to get 3+ hits +1400 at FanDuel.
- Bet the Braves’ Austin Riley to get a hit -230 at FanDuel.
In the past 56 player props, I am 28-28, making $207 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,025 per $100 wager.
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