MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 19

MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 19
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

 

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National League Best Bet

New York Mets +100 at Milwaukee Brewers -110

7:40 p.m. ET

The Mets have a one-game lead in the National League East standings with about 15 games left. 

New York begins a three-game series against the playoff-contending Brewers, who trail the Philadelphia Phillies by two games for the third and final Wild Card berth.

So, there are significant ramifications to who wins and loses in this three-game series. 

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Brewers in this matchup.

  • The Mets are just 7-12, losing 15 units on the moneyline, after allowing three or fewer runs in three consecutive games.
  • The Mets are 25-25, losing 18 units on the moneyline, after two or more consecutive wins in games played this season.

I am betting the Brewers using the moneyline -110 as offered at DraftKings Sportsbook.

 

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American League Best Bet

Detroit Tigers +180 at Baltimore Orioles -190

7:05 p.m. ET

The Orioles are only four games from the third American League Wild Card berth. Still, with just 16 games remaining and an elimination number of six, they will unlikely qualify for the postseason. 

Still, despite the odds being stacked against them, I expect them to come out strong tonight.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational betting angles support a moneyline wager on the Orioles using the moneyline.

  • The Orioles are 51-41, making 35 units on the moneyline, when facing a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better in games played this season.
  • The Orioles are 53-44, making 24 units on the moneyline, when facing teams that strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base in games played this season.
  • The Orioles are 20-10, making 13 units on the moneyline, when facing an American League team with a slugging percentage of .410 or lower in games played in the second half of this season.

I am going to the window betting the Orioles -190 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

 

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Quick Pitches

Here are some prop bets to consider on today's schedule.

  • Bet the Angels' Mike Trout to hit a home run +280 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw over 18.5 recorded outs +125 at BetMGM.
  • Bet the Brewers' Corbin Burnes Over 18.5 recorded outs -105 at BetMGM.
  • Bet the Rockie's CJ Cron to get 2+ hits +160 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Astros' Luis Garcia Over 2.5 earned runs allowed +115 at BetMGM.

In the past 108 games, I have a 51-57 record, making a profit of $399.20 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,996 per $100 wager. Over more than four months, the results produced a 59.5% return on investment (ROI).

 

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