MLB Picks: Can Phillies and Dodgers Close it Out?
In the four Game 1s of Tuesday's MLB Divisional playoff round, home teams went 3-1 and averaged a -225 moneyline wager. Those teams made $90 for the $100 bettor and a 14% return on investment (ROI).
Betting the Over went 3-1, making $200 for the $100 bettor and a solid 44% ROI. The run-line went 2-2, averaging a -105 wager and making $5 for the $100 bettor.
Over the past five MLB playoff rounds, the home team has earned a 114-85 record on the moneyline, averaging a -131 wager and making the $100 bettor a profit of $1,576 for an 8% ROI. The Run Line and Over-Under results in these games produced break-even results.
Let's look at today's games.
Philadelphia Phillies +115 at Atlanta Braves -125
4:35 p.m. ET, Truist Park
The Phillies built a 6-1 lead and had to hang on for a 7-6 win over the Braves on Tuesday. Atlanta's ace Max Fried allowed six runs, four earned, in only 3 1/3 innings. He had made 10 consecutive starts allowing no more than two earned runs in each start.
The weather will be a factor in Game 2. There is a 46% chance of thunderstorms around the time of the first pitch with a 55% chance of precipitation over the next four hours, according to forecast.io. So, stay tuned for updates on my Twitter feed throughout the morning and early afternoon hours for any critical changes in the weather forecast or a change in starting pitchers.
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia's No. 1 starter, is scheduled go today, but if the radar shows a stoppage of play around 5 to 6 p.m., it's possible that manager Rob Thomson could elect to use relievers.
Situational Trends and Angles
- Wheeler has produced a team record of 63-38, making 25 units on the moneyline, in starts he has made the second half of the season for this career.
- Wheeler is 10-7 in 24 career starts with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.225 WHIP when facing the Braves.
- Braves starter Kyle Wright is 2-3 in five career starts with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.057 WHIP against the Phillies.
I am betting on the Phillies using the moneyline priced at +120 at BetMGM Sportsbook.
San Diego Padres +160 at Los Angeles Dodgers -190
8:37 p.m. ET, Petco Park
LIVE In-Game Betting Strategy
The Padres will start Yu Darvish against the Dodgers, who are countering with Clayton Kershaw.
Darvish is coming off one of the best seasons of his career and was dominating in the Game 1 win in the Wild Card round against the New York Mets.
If the Dodgers score first in this game and that score occurs in the first two innings, then I like betting on the Padres using the +1.5-run line and getting at least +125 money.
Here are some prop bets to consider in today's games.
- Bet the Braves' Kyle Wright Over 3.5 strikeouts -167 at Caesars.
- Bet the Padres' Manny Machado Over 1.5 total bases +145 at BetRivers.
- Bet the Phillies' Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +115 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Phillies' Bryce Harper to hit a home run +525 at BetRivers.
- Bet the Padres' Yu Darvish Over 17.5 recorded outs -125 at Caesars.
In 171 prop bets, I have a 75-96 record, making a profit of $495 per $20 pizza-money wager or $2,475 per $100 wager. The results have produced a 68% return on investment (ROI).
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