MLB Picks for Aug. 31

MLB Picks for Aug. 31
© USA Today

Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

 

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National League Best Bet

LA Dodgers +130 at New York Mets -145

7:10 p.m. ET

With the Dodgers’ 4-3 win against the Mets at Citi Field Tuesday, they became the fourth-fastest team to win 90 games in the past 60 years. 

They are 52 games over .500. That is a larger total than the number of wins for five teams (Detroit, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Washington). 

L.A. has a nine-game lead over the Mets for the best record in the National League and an eight-game lead over the Houston Astros for the best record in the MLB.

 The Mets will start Jacob DeGrom, who is 3-1 in five starts with a 2.15 ERA and .545 WHIP. In 29 1/3 innings of work, he has walked only two batters and struck out 46. 

The Dodgers will counter with southpaw Tyler Anderson, who is 12-2 in 22 starts with a 2.71 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 132 2/3 innings. Anderson will be making his fifth career start against the Mets and is 2-1 with a 3-1 team record, 2.42 ERA, and 1.120 WHIP.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Dodgers in this matchup.

  • The Dodgers are 38-9, making 21 units on the moneyline, when facing a team that averages seven or more strikeouts per game in the second half of this season.
  • The Dodgers starter Anderson is 10-2, making 11 units on the moneyline, when facing a team that has outscored their opponents by .5 or more runs-per-game in starts made over the past two seasons.
  • Anderson is 18-5, making 14 units on the moneyline, following a start in which he allowed no more than one earned run in starts made over the past two seasons.

I am betting the Dodgers on the moneyline at -150, as offered at BetMGM.

 

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Interleague Best Bet

Oakland Athletics –115 at Washington Nationals +105

7:05 p.m. E.T.

Despite a 49-81 record, the A’s have been playing well over the past few weeks and are on a three-game winning streak following a 10-6 win over the Nationals Tuesday. 

The A’s have a better record at 17-20 since the All-Star break than the New York Yankees, who are 15-23. 

Since the All-Star break, the A’s have averaged a 150-underdog wager on the moneyline, resulting in an 11% return-on-investment (ROI), while the Yankees have averaged a -165 favorite resulting in a money-burning -35% ROI.

The following situational betting angle supports a -1.5 run line wager on the A’s tonight.

  • The A’s are 14-9 on the run line, resulting in a 27% ROI, when priced as a road favorite and facing an opponent with a winning percentage of 40% or lower in games played over the past three seasons.
  • The Nationals are 30-50, losing 29 units on the run line, when facing a catcher allowing .5 or fewer stolen bases per game this season.
  • The Nationals are 16-36, losing 21 units on the run line, in home games when the total has been between 8.5 and 10 runs this season.

Worth noting, the last time the Oakland A’s played the Washington Nationals was at RFK Stadium in 2005. 

I am going to the window betting the A’s on the –1.5 run line +145 as offered at BetMGM.

 

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Quick Pitches

These are the Player Prop Bets to consider on today’s schedule.

  1. Bet the Phillies’ Bryce Harper to get a hit –230 at FanDuel.
  2. Bet the Diamondbacks’ Alek Thomas to not get a hit +150 at DraftKings.
  3. Bet the Diamondbacks’ Daulton Varsho not to get a hit +155 at DraftKings.
  4. Bet the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole Over 2.5 earned runs allowed +125 at DraftKings.
  5. Bet the Braves’ Travis d'Arnaud to get 2+ hits +220 at FanDuel.

    

In the past 61 games, I have a 30-31 record, making $189 per $20 pizza-money wager or $945 per $100 wager.

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