Moneyline Underdogs Might Be Best Bet in Today's MLB Games

Moneyline Underdogs Might Be Best Bet in Today's MLB Games
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Throughout the season, we will give you MLB betting advice each day, throwing in a few quick pitches for prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

 

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National League

San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers

8:10 p.m. ET

This is the second of a four-game series between these two National League teams. The betting line prices the Milwaukee Brewers as -145 home favorites. 

Right-hander Joe Musgrove starts for the Padres and is off to a terrific start to the season with a 5-0 record in nine starts. He has a 1.86 ERA and a 0.963 WHIP, with 11 walks and 58 strikeouts.

The Brewers will have right-hander Corbin Burnes on the hill and he is 3-2 in 10 starts with a 1.95 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP. He has allowed just 11 walks and has 78 strikeouts. 

He ranks fifth in MLB with 10.86 strikeouts per nine innings and third overall in total strikeouts.
The Padres are 12-22, losing 15 units per unit wagered after losing six or seven of their last eight games in games played over the past two seasons.
I am betting on the Brewers boxed with Burnes (he must start) at -145 on the moneyline as offered by the BetMGM Sportsbook.

 

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American League

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees

7:05 p.m. ET
The best path to profits betting on MLB games is to identify moneyline underdogs that have the potential to win in specific situations that favor them. 

The worst path to financial losses is to bet on large moneyline favorites of -200 and greater. 

If you wager and lose a bet on a -200 moneyline favorite, you then are in a hole having to win two straight games just to break-even. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers just lost a three-game set to the Pittsburgh Pirates this week and were -350 favorites in Game 1, -350 favorites in Game 2, and -260 favorites in Game 3. 

However, betting on significant underdogs, like the Pirates, which I did in Game 1, and the Detroit Tigers in tonight’s matchup in the Bronx, is the path to success.

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The Betting Angle of the Day

The following betting system has produced a 115-101 record for 53% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

The win percentage does not stand out, but what truly matters in betting moneylines is the total rate of return or the ROI. 

This system has averaged a +145-underdog wager and has won more than half of their games returning $6,500 for the $100 bettor and a 30% ROI.

The requirements are:

  • Bet on all American League underdogs.
  • This dog has a solid bullpen posting a WHIP of 1.25 or better on the season.
  • This dog has posted a slugging percentage not better than .400 on the season.
  • Facing a foe that is starting a pitcher that has posted a solid WHIP of 1.300 or lower.

The Tigers are the underdog, their bullpen has posted a 1.083 WHIP and they have a slugging percentage of just .327. 

The Yankees are starting Gerrit Cole, who has a 1.023 WHIP over his 10 starts this season. 

I am betting on the Tigers,offered at +265 on the moneyline by BetMGM. 

 

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