Can Memphis Bounce Back in San Francisco in Game 4 vs. Warriors?
Two key games in the NBA playoffs tonight. Both Milwaukee and Golden State are trying to take a commanding lead in their series.
Can they? How will it affect your NBA betting strategy?
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
7:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Boston comes into tonight's game at Milwaukee as one-point underdogs. The Bucks held on for a 103-101 in Game 3 and pushed against the spread as 2-point favorites.
Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 42 points in Game 3, the sixth time he has scored 40 or more points in a playoff game.
What the Numbers Say
Betting on road teams using the first half line with a scorching hot team, like the Celtics, that have won 15 of their last 20 games and has won 60 to 75% of their games on the season has earned a solid 150-105-3 against the spread record for 60% winning bets over the past five seasons.
From my predictive models, the Celtics are 8-2 against the first-half spread when scoring 55 or more points.
I also expect the Celtics will be leading by single digits at the half and then, in similar fashion to Game 3, the Bucks will make sound adjustments and come back from that deficit and it will be another game right down to the wire.
I am betting the Celtics using the first-half spread.
Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
10 p.m. ET, TNT
The Grizzlies are 9.5-point road underdogs and guard Ja Morant is listed as doubtful.
When an NBA player is listed as doubtful on the injury report, it is unlikely for that player to play.
My predictive models are projecting that it will not matter whether Morant plays, the Golden State Warriors will win it and cover the spread as 10-point favorites.
In their four home playoff games, the Warriors have shot 63 for 138 from beyond the arc for 45.7%, which is the highest percentage over any four-game playoff span in franchise history.
I don't see any way that Memphis can overcome this shooting barrage.
I like betting the Warriors Over the team total of 117 points as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
The Pizza Money Game Prop Best Bets I Like
I like Marcus Smart Under 18.5 points + assists at -120 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
I like Jayson Tatum Under 34.5 points + assists as offered at DraftKings Sportsbook.
I like there will be 191 to 200 total points scored in the Bucks/Celtics game at +800 at BetMGM Sportsbook.
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