Can the Miami Heat Fight Through Injuries to Force Game 7 Against Boston?
The Boston Celtics will try to win and advance to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2010 if they can knock off the top-seed Miami Heat in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference final.
The game is set to tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Let’s look at the numbers to help with your NBA betting.
The Celtics are facing a Heat team dealing with a significant number of injuries starting with NBA Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro, who missed the last two games of this series due to a nagging groin injury.
The Heat scored an average of 81 points in the two games Hero missed, but he has a solid chance to be cleared to play tonight.
The Heat also listed Kyle Lowry (left hamstring), Max Strus (right hamstring), Gabe Vincent (left hamstring) and P.J. Tucker (left knee) as questionable in Thursday’s injury report.
Surprisingly, Jimmy Butler was not listed, but is recovering from a problematic right knee injury and the associated swelling.
After scoring 70 points in the first two games in Miami, Butler scored 27 in the next three games on 10-of-40 shooting.
The Importance of Winning Game 5
Playoff teams that won Game 5 in the conference and NBA Finals tied at 2-2, have gone on to a 15-8 straight-up and against the spread record, good for 65% winning wagers over the past 20 years.
Betting on the total has produced an 11-12 Over-Under record.
If the winner of Game 5 was installed as a favorite in Game 6, it has gone to a 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS record, including a 5-4 Over-Under record.
So, this situational analysis supports the Celtics.
If You Like the Heat
Not all of the analytics side with the Celtics. Playoff teams coming off a home loss in the conference and NBA Finals are 54-41 SU and 51-42-2 ATS for 55% winning wagers, including a 41-53-1 Over-Under record.
Since 2017, these teams are 15-8 SU and 16-7 ATS for 70% winning bets and a 21-11 Over-Under record.
In the past 20 seasons, playoff teams, like the Heat, that are coming off a double-digit home loss in the conference and NBA Finals are 15-15 SU and 17-12 ATS for 59% winning bets and a 17-13 Over-Under record.
I see at least three points in value betting on the Heat and somehow, they are going to will their ways to force a Game 7.
I am going to the window to bet on the Heat plus 8.5 points as offered by BetMGM Sportsbook.
Other Bets I Like Tonight
- Bet on the Celtics’ Al Horford Under 13.5 points and assists at -105 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
- Bet on the Heat’s Duncan Robinson Over 1.5 3-pointers made at -141 as offered at Caesars.
- Bet on the Heat’s Jimmy Butler to have a triple-double at +3600 as offered at FanDuel.
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