Home NBA Favorites Are Winning for Bettors, Will it Continue?
Home favorites in the NBA playoffs are winning on the floor and for bettors. Can this continue? How does this trend in recent years?
Home teams are 43-24 straight up and 35-32 against the spread, including a 24-41-2 Over-Under record. That’s producing 63.1% winning bets on the Under.
Home favorites are 34-8 straight-up for 81% wins and 25-17 against the spread for 59.5% winning bets, including 14-27-1 Over-Under. That’s 65.9% winning bets on the Under.
In the 2020 playoffs, home favorites went 45-21 straight-up and 38-27-1 against the spread for 58.5% winning bets, including an even 32-32-2 Over-Under record.
In the shortened ‘bubble’ playoffs in 2019, home favorites went 27-18 straight-up and 20-23-2 against the spread for 46.5% and 21-23-1 Over-Under record.
With no fans in the stands and playing on the same courts at Disney World, there is no analytical value to including this playoff season with any of the others.
Over the last five NBA playoff seasons, home favorites have produced a 197-82 straight-up record for 70.6% wins and 154-122-3 against the spread mark for 55.8% winning bets, including a 125-146-8 Over-Under record for 53.9% winning Under bets.
If we delete the 2020 results, home favorites are 170-64 straight-up for 73% wins and 134-99-1 against the spread for 57.5% winning bets.
Will the Current Trend Continue through the NBA Finals?
Since May 1, home favorites are 12-1 straight-up, with the only loss being the upset win, on May 1, by the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 1 against the Boston Celtics.
Home favorites are 12-3 against the spread for 80% winning bets, including a 5-8 Over-Under record.
Since 2017, home favorites in the conference finals and NBA Finals have produced a 32-16 straight-up record and 27-20-1 against the spread mark, good for 57.4% winning bets, including a 25-22-1 Over-Under result.
Factoring out the ‘bubble’ playoffs, which went 6-3 straight-up and 4-4-1 against the spread with a 6-3 Over-Under record, we end up with home favorites producing 26-13 straight-up and 23-16 against the spread for 59% winning bets, including a 19-19-1 Over-Under record. Historically, home favorites continue to win and cover the spread through the conference finals and NBA Finals.
What is the Best Home Favorite to Bet On?
The best money-making home favorite is priced between -4 and -7 points and has produced a 100-34 straight-up record and 80-53-1 against the spread for 60.2% winning bets over the last five playoff seasons with 2019 not included.
The Under is 14-4 for 77.8% winning bets with a home favorite of -4 to -7 points coming off a road loss installed as a favorite spanning the past five playoff seasons with 2019 not included.
In the conference finals and NBA Finals, home favorites of not more than -1.5 points are on a 1-5 straight-up and against the spread losing streak. So, be sure to remind yourself of these trends for the next playoff rounds, as I believe they will stay trending.
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