NBA Sports Betting Sentiment Reaching Extreme Levels Ahead of Game 1

NBA Sports Betting Sentiment Reaching Extreme Levels Ahead of Game 1
© USA Today

The word sentiment is frequently used to explain the financial markets’ attitude toward a particular security. It’s also used to describe how bettors feel about an event.

I have developed a Python application that looks at 2,500 tweets and, by using a package of MIT-produced ‘stop words’, assembles the temperature of the betting community. 

Whenever the percentage of bullish investors reaches more than 75% in the financial markets, market tops form and corrections begin. 

Likewise, this happens on the bearish side, in which bottoms form when 75% or more of investors are bearish and are afraid of putting money to work in stocks and bonds. 

The sports betting markets are no different in the use of sentiment readings. 

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How Betting Market is Moving for Game 1

This afternoon, ahead of Game 1 of the 2022 NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors, 75% of the tickets placed and 74% of the total money bet is backing the Warriors. 

Earlier this week, I discussed how the home teams in NBA Finals Game 1 are 17-2 straight-up and 16-3 against the spread. 

So, we now have two powerful situations working in complete opposite of one another and both are of equal importance. 

I have used sentiment readings over the past 27 years as a professional sports bettor and financial futures trader. 

In this case, the fact that there is fast becoming a wave of irrational betting exuberance on the Warriors reduces my original bullishness on them. In other words, it gives me cause for caution and restraint. 

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Here is How to Play This Dichotomy in Game 1

I do pretty well with live in-game betting, especially in the NBA betting on the waves of scoring and lack of scoring at any point during the first half. 

For this game tonight, I will be betting 80% of my usual 4% bet size (pro bettors bet from 3, 4 and 5% of their total bankroll) on the Warriors, full game, laying -3.5 points as offered at BetMGM. 

If the Celtics are leading at halftime, will I add the remaining 20% and perhaps a sprinkle more on the Warriors with the in-game betting line. 

We have seen the Warriors stumble out of the gate in the opening game and I think they will tonight, given that they have had six days of rest. 

Home favorites of not more than seven points in Game 1 are 14-1 SU and ATS. 

So, now we will be getting the Warriors at a lower price because they are trailing at the half and then simply betting the full game pre-flop (before the game starts). 

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