NBA Sports Betting Sentiment Reaching Extreme Levels Ahead of Game 1
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The word sentiment is frequently used to explain the financial markets’ attitude toward a particular security. It’s also used to describe how bettors feel about an event.
I have developed a Python application that looks at 2,500 tweets and, by using a package of MIT-produced ‘stop words’, assembles the temperature of the betting community.
Whenever the percentage of bullish investors reaches more than 75% in the financial markets, market tops form and corrections begin.
Likewise, this happens on the bearish side, in which bottoms form when 75% or more of investors are bearish and are afraid of putting money to work in stocks and bonds.
The sports betting markets are no different in the use of sentiment readings.
How Betting Market is Moving for Game 1
This afternoon, ahead of Game 1 of the 2022 NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors, 75% of the tickets placed and 74% of the total money bet is backing the Warriors.
Earlier this week, I discussed how the home teams in NBA Finals Game 1 are 17-2 straight-up and 16-3 against the spread.
So, we now have two powerful situations working in complete opposite of one another and both are of equal importance.
I have used sentiment readings over the past 27 years as a professional sports bettor and financial futures trader.
In this case, the fact that there is fast becoming a wave of irrational betting exuberance on the Warriors reduces my original bullishness on them. In other words, it gives me cause for caution and restraint.
Here is How to Play This Dichotomy in Game 1
I do pretty well with live in-game betting, especially in the NBA betting on the waves of scoring and lack of scoring at any point during the first half.
For this game tonight, I will be betting 80% of my usual 4% bet size (pro bettors bet from 3, 4 and 5% of their total bankroll) on the Warriors, full game, laying -3.5 points as offered at BetMGM.
If the Celtics are leading at halftime, will I add the remaining 20% and perhaps a sprinkle more on the Warriors with the in-game betting line.
We have seen the Warriors stumble out of the gate in the opening game and I think they will tonight, given that they have had six days of rest.
Home favorites of not more than seven points in Game 1 are 14-1 SU and ATS.
So, now we will be getting the Warriors at a lower price because they are trailing at the half and then simply betting the full game pre-flop (before the game starts).
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