What We Learned in Week 4 of the College Football Season
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We learned that Mario Cristobal still has some work to do at Miami.
The 24th-ranked Miami Hurricanes were favored by 25.5 points over Middle Tennessee State, who was 0-24 SU against ranked opponents in program history until their 45-31 win.
There have been 310 college football underdogs of 17.5 or more points that won the game SU since 1992 and 67 of them have occurred over the past four seasons. Week 4 was unkind to the whipped pups as they went 2-29 SU and 11-20 ATS, including a solid 20-10-1 Over-Under mark good for 67% winning Over bets.
Middle Tennessee State never trailed in the game. Since 2006, the Blue Raiders are 1-8 SU, 5-4 ATS, including a 5-3-1 Over-Under record when installed as a 24 or more-point underdog and facing an opponent ranked in the AP Top-25 poll.
The Hurricanes will likely struggle against North Carolina in their next game. Teams coming off a home loss priced as a 20-point favorite or more have gone 21-15 SU, 13-23 ATS for 36% winning bets, including a 15-17-2 Over-Under record and if they have fallen out of the AP Top-25 poll.
They are 9-8 SU and 4-13 ATS for 24% winning bets, including a 4-10-1 Over-Under record, good for 71.4% winning Under wagers.
I like the Under as an early look when the Hurricanes host the Tarheels in Week 6 following the Hurricanes' bye week.
Ranked Teams Struggled in College Football's Week 4
Ranked teams struggled to win last week, going 17-7 SU, 7-17 ATS for 29% winning bets, including a 14-10 Over-Under record.
I am looking at some solid betting opportunities this week that involve ranked teams that have covered the spread in the first four weeks of the regular season and now are favored in Week 5.
These ATS streaking winners have gone 38-27 SU, but just 25-35-5 ATS for 42% winning bets, including a 25-34 Over-Under record good for 58% winning Under bets. This targets the Washington Huskies, UNLV Runnin’ Rebels, Oregon State Beavers, Minnesota Gophers, Kansas Jayhawks, South Alabama Jaguars, and Arkansas State Red Wolves as potential fades or ‘Bet Against’ in Week 5
Teams that have won four consecutive games and covered the spread are 15-11 SU, 9-16-2 ATS for 36% winning bets, including a 10-14 Over-Under record. So, this reduces the list of fades to including only the Huskies, Gophers, and Jayhawks.
Teams that are ranked in the Top 25 of the most current AP poll and have won four games in a row against the spread are 8-7 SU but, 3-11-1 (ATS) for 78.6% winning bets, including a 7-8 Over-Under record.
This reduces the potential fade list to include the Huskies, who will travel to Los Angeles to take on the UCLA Bruins priced as 3.5-point favorites at DraftKings and the Gophers, who are installed as 10.5-point home favorites when they face the Purdue Boilermakers.
Best Bet of the Week So Far
Last week, I mentioned that ranked teams in the AP poll that have covered the spread in their three previous games and taking on a non-conference foe are 17-3 SU, but a concerning 7-13 ATS. That's 35% winning bets, including a mostly even 10-9 Over-Under record.
Two teams that angle put on alert were Penn State and Kentucky. Penn State defeated Central Michigan 33-14 but failed to cover as 28-point favorites. Kentucky was favored by 26.5 points over the Northern Illinois Huskies and had to fight hard to come away with a 31-23 win. So, a 2-0 ATS result with that specific situational angle.
Here is a betting opportunity I will be taking to the window today. Illinois takes to the road in a Big Ten Conference matchup against Wisconsin and is a 7.5-point underdog at BetMGM. I like the idea of a little extra sprinkle on the moneyline.
This system was on the 21.5-point underdog Wyoming Cowboys, who lost 38-24 to the BYU Cougars and easily covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Betting on road dogs that have held their previous two opponents to 17 or fewer points in each game and now taking on a team that lost their last game by 17 or more points.
Ohio State destroyed Wisconsin (premium bet on Ohio State) 52-21 and covered the spread by 13.5 points. Illinois defeated Tennessee-Chatanooga 31-0 and Virginia 24-3 in their past two games.
I am going to the window and bet on Illinois plus the points against Wisconsin.
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