Best Statistically-Based Bets to Make on Premier League Matches this Weekend

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Best Statistically-Based Bets to Make on Premier League Matches this Weekend
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The English Premier League is in the stretch run and we’ll give you betting advice as the season winds down.

We’ve used the data from around the Premier League and examined the latest odds for the upcoming games to see what the most statistically-backed outcomes are set to be for the midweek games.

Manchester City to Win and West Ham to Score: (32.1%)

Manchester City will look to all but wrap up the Premier League title when it goes on the road one more time this weekend to the London Stadium. 

West Ham United is also challenging for a place in the Europa League next season, and this means the club has to win here.

Winning against City is never easy. The champions have just three losses this season. The Hammers couldn’t pick a worse time to host them. 

In 32.1% of City games this season, it has won and given up at least one goal. Against an impressive West Ham side, it’s expected to happen once more.

Over 3.5 Goals Between Southampton and Liverpool (44.1%)

Liverpool needs nothing but a win in this game against Southampton, as it needs to better City's result in the final two games, being three points behind and behind on goals difference by seven goals.

It means the Reds have to go for it here, and with 45.8% of their games seeing over 3.5 goals, they could hammer the Saints here. 

Southampton is in 15th and on a run of four games with a win. It was beaten 3-0 by Brentford last time out, which came not long after losing to Chelsea 6-0 on home soil.

In 41.9% of its games, Southampton has seen more than 3.5 goals, and with Mohamed Salah looking for a goal to make sure of his third Golden Boot, he’ll be aiming to get in on the action here.

Harry Kane 2+ Shots on Target Against Burnley (32%)

It might not have been a season to remember in Harry Kane’s illustrious goalscoring career, but with the Englishman still netting 25 goals, he’ll be aiming for another one against Burnley. 

Kane has assisted or scored in seven out of his eight previous Premier League matches against Burnley, and after seven goals and three assists so far in this time, it's one of his favorite teams to play.

The England captain has had 2+ shots on target in 17 of his 51 games this season, for 32%. Kane also scored in the north London derby as he racked up a goal from the penalty spot and a header, too, and is well in form. 

Salah to Score Anytime Against Southampton: (39%)

Salah will be in search of goal number 23 this season as his Liverpool side becomes desperate for all three points with it trailing City with six points left to play for.

Salah has scored seven times against Southampton in the nine games he has played against them. It's also seen him win nine times and assist three, and although it has been two years since he last scored against the Saints, with Son Heun-min closing in on his place at the top of the goalscoring charts, he will be in search of a goal here. 

He’s also bagged in 39% of his games this season, which puts him at a record of 30 goals in 59 games.

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Grant McQuillan

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