Jets at Patriots Betting Odds, Tips & Picks for NFL Week 17

Eytan Shander

December 28th, 2018

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Quick Tips

• Bet Patriots -13 with 888Sport.
• Bet Patriots-Jets under 44.5 with SugarHouse.
• Bet 1st quarter over 7.5 points at +100 with SugarHouse.

The NFL schedule purposely set up the last game of the year for divisional games, hoping something important would be on the line. While it might not be the same definition of “importance” for both the Jets and Patriots, NFL betting fans should make no mistake that both will both be playing for something.

New England needs a win to help secure the second seed in the AFC and New York can help prevent that if they can find a way to win.

The last time these two teams squared off things were much different at the QB position for the Jets. Sam Darnold was out with a foot injury and Josh McCown was held to just 13 points in a bad loss. Ever since Darnold has returned he’s been consistent and dangerous.

Patriots-Jets Best Bets

Patriots (-13) over Jets

The Jets were edged 44-38 last week by the Packers and Darnold – 341 yards and three TDs – was as good as Aaron Rodgers. The Jets will need their rookie QB to be just as good on Sunday.

The Pats snapped are the lone NFL team without a loss at home this year as they look to end the year 8-0. Their passing offense – Tom Brady - has struggled, so look for them to run the ball often.

Yes, Brady and the air attack in New England haven’t looked like years past. They do continue to evolve and play to their strengths, which is usually exploiting the other team’s weaknesses each week. A varying formula that depends on the matchup.

Here it’s simple. A week coming off a team rushing effort of 273 yards, the Pats will now square up against a Jets D that surrenders 4.6 yards per carry.

If there’s one thing that has been consistent about Bill Belichick it’s when there is an opening provided by an opponent, he isn’t going to pass. They have three healthy backs in Rex Burkhead, rookie Sony Michel and the two-way back James White. They don’t need to load up one guy as the Jets will allow big plays on the ground throughout the game.

Darnold will do his best to keep that offense in the game, but the Jets will lose the game and the spread because of their run defense. Bet Patriots and give the points at 888Sport.

Under 44.5

We already laid out the Patriots key to success and outlining three different RB who can take on the workload. That alone would lend to a slower game, lower scoring and faster clock. All adding up for the Patriots not really putting up a ton of points on Sunday. Same end but different means for the Jets.

Darnold will already be without one of his best options at WR as Quincy Enunwa – ankle – will not play. Another option in WR Jermaine Kearse – Achilles – is still “sore,” according to his head coach Todd Bowles. Neither of these guys out there makes it that much more difficult for the Jets to move the football in the air.

Unfortunately for the Jets offense their running game has been nonexistent - behind Elijah McGuire – 77 yards over the last two games combined. The Jets will have to rely on a special teams score if they are going to help hit this over. Bet the under with SugarHouse.

1st-Quarter Total Over 7.5

Let’s not take for granted just how good New England is at home this year. There’s a reason why they remain the only undefeated team in the league. With no key injuries to their OL and a healthy Rob Gronkowski, expect the Pats to come out firing.

Yes, they will have to rely on their run game to eventually win this game, but when it comes to first quarters at home, they have gotten out in front early.

They have one injury worth noting with their offense and special teams: Cordarrelle Patterson missed practice with a knee injury. If he plays, then there’s an even stronger chance for a big return in the opening quarter. If he sits, then expect the Pats to be even more aggressive on offense, especially on fourth-and-short.

Bet the first quarter to go over 7.5 points at +100 with SugarHouse.