UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes Picks

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UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes Picks
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A monumental battle takes place Saturday night between heavyweights Sergei Pavlovich and Curtis Blaydes, as the UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas.

With four other fantastic fights on Saturday's main card, and to help with your UFC betting, here are our picks for the weekend.

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes 

A heavyweight clash with huge title shot implications sees Pavlovich and Blaydes battle in the main event. Ultimately, with Cyril Gane losing his title shot against Jon Jones and with Stipe Miocic yet to sign a deal to fight Jones, the winner here could be the next in line.

Pavlovich has been sensational since coming into the UFC five years ago and has only one loss in his career. The loss came during his UFC debut against Alistair Overeem. Since then, the Russian has gone on to win via TKO/KO in the first round of his five fights, defeating stars like Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa.

As far as boxing ability goes, Pavlovich is arguably the best among heavyweights, and with a background in Greco-Roman wrestling and combat sambo, the 30-year-old is the ideal fighter to stop Blaydes' run to the title.

With Blaydes, we know he’s going to wrestle. It’s his go-to and always will be, and he is arguably the best in the division at this discipline. Regardless, only five of his 17 wins have been via decision, and we expect this one to be done inside the distance.

Blaydes is the favorite, but we're huge fans of Pavlovich and expect him to get another knockout win.

Sergei Pavlovich to win by TKO/KO is +185 with FanDuel Sportsbook.

Brad Tavares vs. Bruno Silva

Bruno Silva and Brad Tavaras look to return to the win column on Saturday. The two are set to battle with hopes of securing a spot in the middleweight rankings.

Silva has lost his past two fights by tapping to a guillotine choke against Gerald Meerschaert, although he did take the former middleweight champion, Alex Pereira, to the scorecards and gave him a serious test throughout their three rounds of that defeat.

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Tavares was beaten by Dricus du Plessis in his most recent fight, which puts him on a record of 16 fights that have gone the distance at middleweight. In fact, the Hawaiian has the most decision wins in middleweight history with 12, and we expect this fight to take a similar route.

At the same time, 19 of Silva's 22 wins have been via knockout, so we expect him to get another finish or for Tavares to finish out the fight on points.

Brad Tavares to win on points or Bruno Silva to win by KO/TKO/DQ is -225 with DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bobby Green vs. Jared Gordon 

A fight that could steal the Fight of the Night bonus sees Bobby Green take on Jared Gordon with both fighters racking up a few losses in recent years.

Gordon's record is 19 wins and seven losses, but he heads into this one after a very controversial defeat to superstar Paddy Pimblett, as many argue Gordon's case for a win back in December.

The American has now won just one fight in the past two years after also losing to Grant Dawson via rear-naked choke. This means his unanimous decision win over Leonardo Santos remains his only victory since late 2021.

Gordon is expected to give Green a lot to think about in this bout. He has a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, and if he gets the chance to wrestle, Green could be in a lot of trouble.

At the same time, Gordon has just two wins in his past six fights, as Thiago Moisés, Rafael Fiziev, Islam Makhachev and Drew Dober have all made easy work of him.

Green's boxing ability will, however, likely dictate the pace of this fight. His head movement is one of the best in the lightweight division, and with this being his 45th MMA fight, we expect a return to the win column for Green.

Bobby Green to win on points is -110 with FanDuel Sportsbook.

Jeremiah Wells vs. Matthew Semelsberger 

Jeremiah Wells and Matthew Semelsberger are -113 at FanDuel to win this fight, but we give the edge to Wells.

The American earned a Performance of the Night award for his fantastic knockout over Court McGee last time out, and this also brought him onto a five-fight win streak. What's more, Wells is now unbeaten in the UFC with three wins in three fights, and he has also submitted Mike Mathetha and knocked out Warlley Alves in this time.

Semelsberger eased to a win over Jake Matthews in December but has also lost to Khaos Williams and Alex Moreno in his past five fights. He has also seen six of his 15 fights go the distance, and we expect the superior ability of Wells to get the win on points in this fight. 

Jeremiah Wells to win on points is +500 with DraftKings Sportsbook.

Iasmin Lucindo vs. Brogan Walker 

At 21 years old, Iasmin Lucindo enters her second UFC fight with 18 fights already on her record. It puts her as one of the most experienced under-23 fighters in recent UFC history, and she is a clear favorite to beat Brogan Walker.

Walker is also entering just her second UFC fight, but after losing three of her past five, we don't expect her to win this one. In fact, from her seven wins, she has racked up just one finish by defeating Emilee King via rear-naked choke back in her Invicta FC days.

Prior to the loss on her UFC debut, Lucindo secured a seven-fight win streak. At age 21, she is certainly one to watch out for in the future. We expect her superior MMA skills to be on full show here, earning her a win on points.

Iasmin Lucindo to win on points is -120 with DraftKings Sportsbook.

Other Bets to Consider

SportsbookOddsProp Bet
PointsBet-104Mohammed Usman to beat Junior Tafa
DraftKings150Rick Glenn to beat Christos Giagos on points
BetMGM330Karine Silva to beat Priscila Cachoeira on points
DraftKings-150Montel Jackson to win via TKO/KO against Rani Yahya

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Grant McQuillan

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