UFC Vegas 64 Picks, Odds and Predictions

UFC Vegas 64 Picks, Odds and Predictions
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Ahead of one of the biggest fight cards of the year next week at UFC 281, Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos headline another UFC Fight Night at the Apex with five fights on the main card. 

With a few canceled bouts already on this week’s card, here are our betting picks for UFC Vegas 64.

Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos

This strawweight fight has huge implications for a shot at the title across the next year, as Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos look to make their biggest statement yet in the UFC.

Rodriguez probably should have been launched into title discussions sooner, as she has arguably the best win streak in the strawweight rankings after the champion, Carla Esparza. 

In fact, she has already beaten Yan Xiaonan (No. 5) and Mackenzie Dern (No. 6) just below her in the rankings, while also defeating Amanda Ribas (No. 9) and Michelle Waterson (No. 11) during her four-fight win streak. 

Lemos also beat Waterson in her last fight, forcing the tap from a guillotine choke and winning a Performance of the Night bonus in the process. The Brazilian has only lost twice in her career. However, both fighters are 35 years old, and while Rodriguez seems to get better and better, Lemos does not.

Rodriguez is our pick, and she should get her deserved shot at the title. 

Marina Rodriguez to win by points is +150 with FanDuel.

Neil Magny vs. Daniel Rodriguez 

It’s No. 13 against No. 14 at 170 pounds, and this could be Neil Magny's last chance to get closer to the top 10 of the welterweight rankings as he takes on Daniel Rodriguez. Both men are 35, so it's clear why this is the closest matchup on the main card in terms of odds from the sportsbooks. 

DraftKings has Magny at -120 to win. However, after he lost to Michael Chiesa and Shavkat Rakhmonov in the past two years, while beating only Max Griffin via split decision and Geoff Neal via unanimous decision, there's not much to suggest he will beat Rodriguez here.

Rodriguez has lost just one of his eight fights in the UFC, to Nicolas Dalby. Also, the American defeated the impressive Li Jingliang in his last fight to make it four wins in a row after also defeating Kevin Lee in August 2021.

Magny is good, and he deserves a lot of credit. His long range and impressive striking are always a problem for other fighters, and they make this fight tough to call. Given how the two have a combined 22 wins by decision, it makes sense to bet for another fight to go the distance.

Exact method of victory to be a decision is -190 with FanDuel.

Chase Sherman vs. Josh Parisian

After losing four of his first five fights in the UFC, Chase Sherman heads into his bout against Josh Parisian knowing that a win could push him closer to the heavyweight top 15. The American returned to the win column in his last fight against Jared Vanderaa, beating him via TKO and winning a Performance of the Night bonus. 

On the other hand, with consecutive losses to Andrei Arlovski, Parker Porter, Jake Collier and Alexander Romanov, it's tough to justify another win for him. Worse yet for Sherman, Parisian is a knockout artist with 11 wins via TKO/KO in 20 fights. He defeated Alan Baudot via TKO in his last fight, which also earned him a Performance of the Night bonus.

It sets this fight up nicely, and with the odds quite close, we think the fight not going the distance is a sensible bet.

Fight to end via KO/TKO/DQ is -175 with DraftKings.

Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Nate Maness

Two 31-year-olds meet with implications for the UFC flyweight rankings, as both Tagir Ulanbekov and Nate Maness lost their last fights.

Ulanbekov was beaten by Tim Elliot back in March in his third UFC fight, marking only his second loss in professional MMA. Maness also registered his second loss in MMA in his most recent fight, as he was bullied by rising star Umar Nurmagomedov. 

In Maness' last fight, he lost to a combat sambo specialist, and he meets another one here. This is why Ulanbekov is the favorite to win at -215, and with the American struggling against grapplers with his blue belt in jiu-jitsu, Ulanbekov could make easy work of Maness.

Tagir Ulanbekov to win by points is +100 with DraftKings.

Grant Dawson vs. Mark Madsen

Grant Dawson is one of the heavy favorites on the main card to look out for as he aims to reach 19 wins in his MMA career against the unbeaten Mark Madsen. 

The odds are misleading, given that Madsen has yet to lose and has won all four of his UFC fights. He defeated Vinc Pichel in April via unanimous decision, not long after narrowly beating veteran Clay Guida via split decision. The Dane's wrestling ability was on full display in his second UFC fight when he beat Austin Hubbard via unanimous decision, which came after a TKO win in his UFC debut against Danilo Belluardo.

As a Greco-Roman master who has won numerous gold medals in Europe, there's always a chance Madsen gets hold of his opponent and grinds out a win on points. Dawson, however, has just one loss in 20 bouts, which came in 2016 in the Kansas City Fighting Alliance to unknown fighter Hugh Pulley.

Dawson also has 12 wins by submission, which never bodes well for a wrestler like Madsen. Either way, we think Dawson is too good across the board and should win here.

Grant Dawson to win by points is +140 with DraftKings.

Jabs

SportsbookOddsProp Bet
FanDuel-245Johnny Munoz to beat Liudvik Sholinian
DraftKings+350Darrick Minner to win by submission against Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
DraftKings+130Miranda Maverick by points against Shanna Young
DraftKings+130Mario Bautista by points against Benito Lopez
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