Emmanuel Macron Well Clear of Le Pen in French Election Betting Odds
Emmanuel Macron is on course to win the 2022 French election following a dramatic fall in popularity for his rival Marine Le Pen, according to political betting sites.
Macron was elected president of France in 2017 and until a few months ago was by no means the clear favourite to win next year’s vote.
The En Marche! leader has endured a tumultuous first term in office, in which he has attempted to steer the EU through choppy international waters, while also keeping the peace at home.
Macron’s popularity has rarely been in the black and around 57% of the population currently disapprove of the president.
Yet he remains the clear favourite to win the 2022 French election in the latest betting odds and that is primarily due to his rivals falling away.
How The French President is Elected
Betting sites currently have Macron at 2/5 to be president after the 2022 election. That suggests an implied probability of 71.4%.
The reasons Macron’s odds are so low are in part because, as the incumbent, he is always likely to earn a bounce on election day. It is also harder for France to elect renegade candidates because of its two-round voting system, which cuts all but two candidates out at the first stage.
However, what is also evident is that a lack of credible opposition has granted Macron his position of power in the political betting odds at least.
Marine Le Pen, who lost in the second round of voting to be president of France in 2017 by 33-66%, has since restyled her National Front party as National Rally. The populist is not expected to earn as many votes in the first round of these elections, but could challenge Macron more closely in the second.
That’s because a new right-wing candidate is drawing primary voters away from Le Pen. Éric Zemmour, the journalist, has announced his presidential run. According to The Times, Zemmour has vowed to ‘save France from destruction at the hands of Muslims, immigrants and criminals abetted by “the elites”.’
A Trumpian-styled candidate, Zemmour is polling at 14% already, with many Le Pen voters shifting over. This split vote between Zemmour and National Rally is unlikely to result in Le Pen missing the cut in the first round of voting – although Zemmour is already priced at roughly the same level as his right-wing adversary at 8/1.
Macron First Round Vote Share
Politico’s French election polling data shows that Macron is on course to be re-elected even if Zemmour’s backers switch to Le Pen in the second round of voting.
That is largely because a bulk of the electorate who don’t primarily back Macron will swing to En Marche! in order to stop Le Pen coming to power.
Therefore, political betting punters are seeking other markets of interest and William Hill have posed an 8/11 (57.9%) price on Macron failing to win 25% of the vote share in the first round.
Macron managed 24% in 2017 and still swept to power. To put that into context, in 2012 both Francois Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy managed to scrape >25% of the vote in the first round, with Le Pen claiming 17.9%.
Politico estimate that Macron is set for a repeat 24% first-round vote share in 2022. He is expected to beat Le Pen in a second-round stand off by 55-45%.
This election will be tighter than in 2017 but not close enough for Le Pen to claim the presidency.
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