Scotland's IndyRef2 May Have To Wait According To Latest Odds
The chances of Scotland holding another independence referendum before the next UK general election look incredibly slim, according to the latest political betting markets.
Scotland first voted on independence in 2014, where the No vote won out 55-45 in a highly charged contest that swept the nation.
Since then the pro-nationalist SNP has maintained a strong grip on politics at Holyrood and performed well at UK general elections to become the de-facto third biggest party in Westminster.
SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has continued to run on a ticket of delivering a second independence referendum for Scotland in the near future – even though the SNP billed the 2014 vote as a “once in a generation” chance to break up the union.
Yet it looks as though the appetite for Scottish independence has, at least for now, died down. And the best betting sites have certainly taken note of the dip in enthusiasm.
Latest IndyRef 2 Odds
According to the latest Scottish independence betting odds set by UK bookies, there is now a 66% chance that we won’t see another Scottish independence referendum until 2025 at the earliest. The price of 1/2 indicates that the bookies aren’t expecting a vote any time soon.
Indeed, even an IndyRef 2 vote in 2024 is priced at 3/1.
And the dates aren’t a coincidence. The next UK general election is not slated to take place until the summer of 2024, at which point the SNP will once again run on a mandate to deliver a referendum to its four million eligible voters.
It appears as though over the course of this current parliament there is very little chance of a referendum being held. That’s likely because Scotland right now doesn’t appear interested in independence. Since the outbreak of coronavirus in early 2020 research has indicated that Scots are more concerned about healthcare, society and the economy than nationalism.
What’s more, Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s successful furlough scheme appears to have won some support for Westminster north of the border.
Polls Support Union
But perhaps the biggest driving force behind delaying IndyRef 2 is the current state of the polls. Only two respectable polls since mid-April have given backing to the Yes vote. All the others are suggesting that No would win by between three and eight percentage points.
And in a referendum situation this is not good news for nationalist strategists. Back in 2014 the SNP took a gamble on pushing for independence and lost. This time around Sturgeon will not be so bold. The Yes vote will need to be polling at 55% or higher for the SNP to even consider pushing for a new referendum.
This enthusiasm could come back after the 2024 UK election, when the SNP message will be at its loudest when fighting against the Conservatives on the campaign trail.
But for now, those banking on independence need to sit tight.
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