Next UK Election Betting Reveals No Majority For Tories Or Labour
Betting sites believe the UK is heading for a hung parliament at the next election after a disastrous few weeks for Boris Johnson’s Conservative party.
A sleaze scandal that began with attempts to rewrite the ministerial code last autumn and culminated in Johnson being fined for partying in Downing Street during Covid-19 lockdown almost forced the prime minister to quit in June.
The 57-year-old survived a confidence vote of his own Tory MPs but the past eight months have severely damaged the Conservatives’ chances of winning the next election.
Indeed, the government’s plummeting approval ratings have come as Labour and the Liberal Democrats begin making grounds in Tory constituencies. Johnson’s party suffered a severe loss at May’s local elections and is facing more by-election humiliation this summer.
The PM is clinging on to power for now but UK bookmakers aren’t convinced he can lead the Tories to another majority as he did in 2019. Yet that isn’t to say Labour have any better chance of securing control of Parliament either.
Latest UK Election Odds
According to the latest UK election odds, the Conservatives have a 26% chance of winning the next election. That should come in the summer of 2024 – and whether Johnson will be there leading his party into battle remains to be seen.
The odds of a Conservative majority are lagging way behind those of a hung parliament, which is currently sat at 8/11 (58% likelihood). Were Labour and the Lib Dems to form a pact heading into the election – as some Tories have warned – then they could probably form a coalition government.
Yet the big move in the politics betting markets since May’s local elections is with Labour. Six weeks ago Labour were 3/1 (25%) to form a minority government at the next election. Political betting sites now offer that same price but on a majority Labour win.
That shows progress for Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer – although some would argue the opposition should be further ahead in the polls considering the deluge of scandal that has fallen at the door of No 10 in recent months.
Will There Be An Election This Year?
Boris Johnson is not one to test the waters of his popularity but there were rumblings this summer that he had threatened rebel backbenchers with a snap autumn election in effort to force them not to oust him.
In the end he wasn’t toppled, and there is now a 12-month window where Johnson cannot be challenged through his own party. The need for a 2022 election – even the threat of it – has therefore fallen away. Paddy Power currently price an election this year at 9/1 (10%).
But that does still leave room for doubt. Should enough Tory rebels join Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP in calling for Johnson to resign then theoretically they could take down the government. That’s highly unlikely but may be a course looked at if Johnson’s leadership crisis worsens further.
What is more likely at this stage is that the Tories hold out until the 2024 general election. Johnson may not remain in power for the next two years but the Conservatives won’t risk losing control of government, so switching their leader appears the most likely outcome if, indeed, there is any change at all.
Politics Odds Explained
Labour lead the Conservatives by around six in the polls, yet the bookies reckon they’re less likely to win a majority at the next election. The reason for this is to do with how the betting markets are affected by wagering habits.
When punters bet heavily on the Tories winning the 2024 election – as they did after Johnson secured an 80-seat majority in 2019 – those odds shrink. In turn, Labour’s odds inflated in the aftermath of that humbling loss and the exit of leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Starmer has had two years to plug away at regaining confidence in Labour, and the polls suggest he is heading on the right trajectory. But the betting markets are still in favour of the Tories due to the weight of those earlier bets.
It’s also worth remembering that the polls can get these things wrong. Pollsters in America gave Donald Trump just a 10% chance of beating Hillary Clinton in 2016. They also expected the UK to vote to remain in the EU during the Brexit referendum.
There is also an issue around notoriety that Starmer hasn’t yet cracked. Everyone in the country knows who Johnson is, yet Starmer’s fame has only recently surpassed 90%. He is far from the Tony Blair figure that captivated the nation in the 1990s, but Labour will hope he eventually gets there.
For now, it is understandable why the bookies’ odds haven’t shifted in line with the polls. There is still plenty of time before the next UK election – and plenty of change within.
FAQ
When is the next UK election?
The next UK election will take place on Thursday 2 May 2024, under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, which states elections must be held a minimum every five years. However, it can be held sooner than this if two-thirds of MPs agree to a snap election.
How often is there a UK election?
The UK election cycle runs for a maximum of five years, under the terms of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. However, snap elections can also be called at any time, so long as there is a two-thirds majority approval among MPs.
Is there an election if the Prime Minister resigns?
There is no obligation for Parliament to call a new UK election if the Prime Minister resigns their office. This is because the country votes for a party to govern, rather than an individual. However, there could be a no confidence vote in the government, which may trigger a snap election.
Who will win the 2024 UK election?
The UK’s two main parties — Labour and the Conservatives — are likely to dominate the 2024 UK election. The Conservatives have been in power since 2010 and currently boast an 80-seat majority in the House of Commons. Other parties who are likely to run in 2024 include the Liberal Democrats, Green Party and Scottish National Party.
What are the latest UK politics odds?
UK politics betting odds are in a constant state of flux due to the ever-changing nature of global affairs. Top bookmakers offer regular markets for betting on the next Prime Minister, which party will win the next election, and who will be leader of the opposition.
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