Next UK Election Odds: What Price Are Labour, Conservatives And Reform UK For 2029?

Betting sites make Reform UK favourites to win the most seats at the next general election – but the chances of a majority in Parliament remain in the balance.

The next UK election is not scheduled to take place until 2029, when Labour will hope to successfully maintain their large majority.

However, Reform’s surge in the polls past Labour and the Conservatives means punters are throwing their weight behind Nigel Farage and his party.

That is despite the next election still being four years away.

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The summer recess saw support for Reform grow to fresh heights, with data suggesting 34% support. Labour and the Tories sit on 19 and 15 points respectively.

Reform are attracting all the media attention at present and would win an election were one to be held tomorrow.

The bookies reckon it is a coin toss on whether they would secure a majority.

They are also struggling to set accurate odds because parties are not behaving as they usually would. 

2029 UK General Election Odds: Most Seats

It means punters need to shut out the media noise when deciding who to back in the next UK election.

Jostling in the polls this early into a five-year parliamentary cycle does not mean a great deal, but political betting sites are keeping a close eye on what’s going on.

Reform look here to stay. Their first year as a political force after the 2024 UK election has seen them double their poll ratings.

Nigel Farage may have a negative approval rating across the country, but his party is the most popular by far.

Reform’s rise comes as Labour flop from one crisis to the next.

Sir Keir Starmer’s longevity has come under scrutiny and things could get worse for the government at the November budget.

After a summer of discontent within the Labour ranks, the autumn began with Starmer losing his deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and sacking US ambassador Peter Mandelson.

Labour’s odds of winning the most seats at the next election have widened from 6/4 to 7/4 over the summer. 

At the same time, Reform are 6/5 to secure the most seats.

The Tories have also seen their price widen as Kemi Badenoch struggles to reverse their sinking poll numbers.

2029 UK General Election Odds: For Majority

You may think Reform are a shoo-in for the next election – but four years is a very, very long time in politics.

Here, we look at the parties likely to be in the running come 2029.

Reform UK

Life looks good for Farage right now. His party is flying high in the polls, he has an audience on both sides of the Atlantic and he does not have to deliver on his promises just yet.

Farage can chip away practically from the sidelines and gather support without acting on the issues that affect the UK.

That is the privilege of a politician in opposition and it appears as though a sizable chunk of the British public want him to run the country.

Reform are favourites to win the most seats at the 2029 UK election but not to get a majority. In fact, William Hill offer odds of 7/4 (36.4%) on Reform landing more than 325 seats in Parliament.

Farage still has a long way to go and there is no guarantee Reform even make it to the general election.

Rumours of a union with the Conservative party have floated for months. 

While Farage insists he does not need the Tories, in reality, a Reform-Conservative coalition would be enough to command a large Commons majority.

Labour

Labour are still in this race, even if there is a feeling Starmer is doing everything to avoid being re-elected. 

Starmer has sought to maintain hold of the centre ground, despite criticism from the left (Labour’s bedrock support) and a bleed of supporters to the populist right.

Right now the PM can afford to be unpopular, so long as he can fulfil his long-term ambitions for the country.

That is, namely, creating an economy that does not spend what it does not produce, that does not tax working people any more than it currently does, and keeps people in employment (reducing welfare).

The problem is, Starmer needs to cut government spending and increase taxes at a time when the UK’s finances are in a total mess.

Politically this is risky when Reform can offer untested answers from the sidelines.

Starmer can at least be consoled with the likelihood the Conservatives will endure another electoral failure next time around.

Despite being 7/4 to gain most seats, Labour are 5/1 to win a majority in 2029. Right now, those odds are spot on.

Conservatives

Badenoch’s position as leader of the Conservative party is so fragile that Robert Jenrick – the rival whom she beat to the leadership in 2024 – is priced alongside her at 10/1 with BetMGM to be the next prime minister after Starmer.

Not only is Badenoch facing a date with destiny over her party leadership, but she is trying to make the Conservatives relevant.

That is hard when there is a 14-year legacy of government still fresh in people’s minds.

Reform have hoovered up a decent chunk of the Tory vote, which has slumped to 15 points. Surely things cannot get worse for the UK’s most successful political party.

The bookies are expecting it to. 

They price a Conservative majority at the next election at 16/1. They also think Badenoch has a 16.7% chance (at 5/1) of earning the most seats in Parliament.

It is not going to happen – at least, not the way UK politics stands right now.

Badenoch cannot force change on the polls, so the Tories may have to force the issue themselves. 

Ditching their leader for Jenrick is eminently possible and would potentially lead to a union with Reform.

If Badenoch goes, expect the Conservative odds to plummet. They will not be favourites to win the next election but they may become a realistic contender once again.

Liberal Democrats

The bookmakers give the Liberal Democrats a 2.9% chance of winning the next election. 

That is probably being kind to them. This year was a standout election for the Lib Dems as they targeted Tory-backed seats across the south.

The tactic worked and Sir Ed Davey delivered 72 seats to parliament. However, this is considered a high water mark.

Reform are growing and the Tories surely cannot perform any worse than they did in 2024. 

If the Conservatives do fail to grow their numbers in 2029, then that will probably be to the benefit of Reform, not the Lib Dems, who are 40/1 to win most seats and 200/1 for a majority.

The Greens

The Green party won four seats at the last election and have plenty of support across the country. However, the way the UK election system works means they are never going to get near a majority.

While Reform have grown out of the fringes, the Greens still remain on the periphery.

Climate change and environmental issues certainly help throw the Greens into the spotlight. 

Voters seem generally more keen to weigh up their environmental concerns alongside economic and social issues.

That is why many environmentally-conscious voters still backed Labour or the Lib Dems in 2024. It is also why sceptics pushed towards Reform, who were promising to roll back green targets.

The Greens are 500/1 to win most seats at the next election but pushing beyond 10 MPs would be a successful result.

How The UK Election Works

UK general elections require voters to elect a constituency Member of Parliament from their area. 

There are 650 constituencies in the UK that make up the House of Commons, which is the lower chamber in the country’s parliament.

A party therefore needs 326 MPs to form a majority. If no party has a mandate to form a majority then they can work together to form coalition governments – as happened in 2010 with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats – or try to govern as a minority.

Voters back a constituency candidate who is affiliated with a party, or they can vote for independents.

UK elections work on a first-past-the-post system. That means the winner does not need 50% + 1 in order to win. They simply need more votes than any other candidate.

FPTP benefits the bigger parties because more people generally vote for their candidates, even though they might not win outright in their constituencies. 

A winning candidate may only earn a third of all votes cast, yet still represent that constituency for the next parliament.

Pollsters will track the voting throughout election night and then release their exit polls at 10pm. 

Each constituency then begins their count through the night and a winner is usually announced in the morning.