Next UK Election Odds: Betting Market Flees Conservatives For Labour
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UK betting sites are shrinking their odds on Labour winning the next UK election but are also witnessing a flurry of bets on a Conservative-Reform coalition.
Rishi Sunak looks destined to lose his job as UK prime minister once the next election is held.
He has the authority to hold off until January 2025 before the public have their say, but it’s likely he will plump for an autumn election.
The next six months are destined to be tumultuous in Downing Street as Mr Sunak scrambles to improve his party’s meagre poll ratings.
Labour currently lead the Tories by an average of 20 points and the government is also losing support to Reform UK, the populist right-wing party that is polling on 12%.
Labour would likely steamroll an election were it to be held tomorrow and reclaim many of the Red Wall seats lost in 2019 when Jeremy Corbyn failed to beat Boris Johnson in the snap election.
But UK bookmakers are starting to take notice of Reform UK and punters are wondering whether there is value backing Nigel Farage’s party this year too.
UK General Election Odds
Politics betting sites aren’t quite ready to plunge their price on a Reform UK victory, but they nevertheless have the right-wing party at 25/1 to form a winning coalition with the Tories.
That comes in the wake of Lee Anderson’s defection from the Conservatives to Reform, making him the new party’s sole representative in Westminster.
Mr Sunak, desperate for support, has already flirted with the right wing of his party over his Rwanda deportation scheme and small boats policy.
However, influential figures such as Suella Braverman and Liz Truss aren’t offering much help right now.
No wonder, then, that 15% of all bets on the UK election markets are backing a Reform-Tory coalition victory.
Attention is swinging away from Labour to the drama surrounding the Tories and Reform. However, it’s not stopped the bookies from also nudging in Labour’s price.
Sir Keir Starmer’s party are now 1/7 with BetUK to win a majority. Their odds of securing a minority have also come in to 9/2.
This suggests an 87.5% chance that Sir Keir will be entering No.10 shortly after the next election.
The shortening of Labour’s odds and the new option to bet on Reform-Conservative means there has to be give in the market somewhere.
That’s come in the form of a Conservative majority, which is now priced way out at 14/1.
Who Will Win The Election?
Rarely has a party entered an election year with such confidence as Labour.
The party has presented itself as a government in waiting ever since Sir Keir and Rachel Reeves courted heads of state at Davos last year.
Labour have led in the polls since Johnson’s government imploded under the former prime minister’s own series of scandals.
Since then, Ms Truss has blown a £60bn hole in the economy and Rishi Sunak has failed to ignite a passion for his premiership outside of seasoned Tory voters.
Labour are picking up support in constituencies that took Johnson for his word in 2019 when he pledged to “Get Brexit Done”.
The key challenge for both Keir Starmer and Mr Sunak is to now convince the electorate that they can “Make Brexit Work”.
Labour are now willing to discuss the possibility of re-joining the EU, although that may become an issue once in government.
Instead, they have successfully courted both left- and right-wing voters, and have hoovered up centrists.
Mr Sunak has nowhere to turn. Rebels are shifting to Reform UK and traditional Tories see potential in Labour.
Polling fugues show support for the Conservatives hasn’t gone above 28% since the Truss administration.
Right now, it’s impossible to see anything but a Labour win in the next general election. They’re also polling well in Scotland, much to the frustration of the SNP.
There is talk of a 1997-style whitewash coming this year, which is perhaps overstating Labour’s popularity.
However, a lack of interest in the Conservatives - could with Reform UK being a viable alternative for populists - means Mr Sunak will almost certainly leave Downing Street this year.
FAQ
When is the next UK election?
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The next UK general election must take place before February 2025. UK elections must be held a minimum every five years. However, a snap election can be held sooner than this if two-thirds of MPs agree to it.
How often is there a UK election?
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The UK election cycle runs for a maximum of five years, under the royal prerogative. However, elections can be called at any time, so long as there is a two-thirds majority approval among MPs.This happened in 2017 when Theresa May called a snap election, and in 2019 when Boris Johnson sought to push through his Brexit deal.
Is there an election if the Prime Minister resigns?
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There is no obligation for Parliament to call a new UK election if the Prime Minister resigns their office. This is because the country votes for a party to govern, rather than an individual. This was the case in 2022 when first Boris Johnson and then Liz Truss resigned as prime minister.
Who will win the 2024 UK election?
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The two main parties — Labour and the Conservatives — are likely to dominate the 2024 UK election. The Conservatives have been in power since 2010 and boast a 60-seat majority.Other parties who are likely to run in 2024 include the Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party. There is a possibility the next UK election will be held in 2025.
What are the latest UK politics odds?
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UK politics betting odds are in a constant state of flux due to the ever-changing nature of global affairs. Political betting sites offer regular markets for betting on the next Prime Minister, which party will win the next election, and who will be leader of the opposition.
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