Conservative Majority Tipped To Shrink At Next UK Election

Conservative Majority Tipped To Shrink At Next UK Election
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Boris Johnson’s Conservative party risk suffering a reduced majority or even being booted out of government at the next general election, politics betting markets have indicated.

The Tories have been battling on a number of political fronts ever since Johnson led the party to an 80-seat majority at the 2019 general election.

Bookmakers were initially confident the Conservatives would retain power for the duration of the next parliament and likely see off Labour in the 2024 election too.

But after a year of turmoil thanks to coronavirus, an economic crash, growing pressures on the NHS and a growing threat of a No Deal Brexit, the Tories’ chances of boosting their majority at the next election are waning.

That is according to the latest political betting odds from bookmaker William Hill.

Conservative Majority Betting Widens

Johnson’s party are now out at 6/1 to improve their 80-MP majority at the next election. That has widened from 11/2 back in August, when Covid-19 levels were at a summer low and the exams fiasco hadn’t properly begun.

Fast-forward six weeks and the odds shift indicates a sudden waning of confidence in Johnson’s party to steer the UK through a cold winter.

The latest polling from Opinium suggests Labour are now the party of choice among voters, should an election be held today. Sir Keir Starmer’s opposition have a voting intention rating of 42%, compared to the Conservatives’ 39%.

Meanwhile, Yougov report that 57% of the population believe Johnson is performing badly right now. The PM has been embattled on a number of fronts this autumn, with a sharp rise in coronavirus cases leading the government to consider harsher lockdown restrictions.

Major Issues For Johnson

However, implementing greater lockdown measures has not gone down well. A growing number of backbench MPs are rallying in protest of decisions seemingly made from the heart of No 10, without any consensus from the party.

They are worried a return to the lockdown experience during the first wave of Covid-19 would cripple local economies. More local lockdowns are expected in the lead-up to Christmas, while the government has rowed back on its push to have workers return to offices.

Meanwhile, around 15 Tory rebels are determined to block Johnson’s plans to effectively tear up the Brexit withdrawal agreement and implement the Internal Market Bill, which one MP admitted amounted to breaking international law.

And there is also growing disquiet about how the government is handling university admissions, with hundreds of students currently living under lockdown measures in campus accommodation.

Things could get even worse for Johnson as he rests his remaining political capital on the government’s Test and Trace facilities, in the hope of easing the burden on the NHS in the lead-up to flu season.

But luckily for the Tories, the next election is still four years away.


The next UK election will take place on Thursday 2 May 2024, under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, which states elections must be held a minimum every five years. However, it can be held sooner than this if two-thirds of MPs agree to a snap election.

The UK election cycle runs for a maximum of five years, under the terms of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. However, snap elections can also be called at any time, so long as there is a two-thirds majority approval among MPs.

There is no obligation for Parliament to call a new UK election if the Prime Minister resigns their office. This is because the country votes for a party to govern, rather than an individual. However, there could be a no confidence vote in the government, which may trigger a snap election.

The UK’s two main parties — Labour and the Conservatives — are likely to dominate the 2024 UK election. The Conservatives have been in power since 2010 and currently boast an 80-seat majority in the House of Commons. Other parties who are likely to run in 2024 include the Liberal Democrats, Green Party and Scottish National Party.

UK politics betting odds are in a constant state of flux due to the ever-changing nature of global affairs. Top bookmakers offer regular markets for betting on the next Prime Minister, which party will win the next election, and who will be leader of the opposition.

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