Next UK Election Betting Reveals Odds Lagging Behind Polls
Bookmakers believe Labour are unlikely to win the next UK general election despite recent polling data suggesting Sir Keir Starmer’s party would win more seats than Boris Johnson’s Conservatives if a vote were held today.
In a display of confidence for the current government, the best betting sites are still backing Johnson and co. to win a majority in 2024.
That, however, goes against the latest polls issued in the New Statesman which suggests Labour would be the largest parliamentary party after the next election by 27 seats.
According to the report, the result of the 2019 general election would be reversed, with Labour leapfrogging the Tories in terms of MP numbers in the Commons.
This wouldn’t as yet be enough to secure a majority, but does represent a proposed 190-seat swing between the two parties. Yet betting sites have decided against shifting their historically favourable odds on the Conservatives for now.
Latest UK Election Odds
According to political betting sites, the Conservatives remain the 4/7 favourites to win the most seats in Parliament – with Labour at 5/7. That represents a 64% likelihood for Johnson’s party.
Factoring in the SNP’s 45 seats hoovered up in Scotland, either Labour or the Conservatives would need roughly 275 MPs to become the biggest party.
However, while online bookmakers aren’t backing Labour just yet, they’re also not expecting a Tory majority either. The latest odds suggest there is a 55% chance that the next UK election will result in no overall majority.
The Conservatives have won two of the last four elections with heavy majorities, and have twice had to be propped up by other parties – the Lib Dems in 2010, and the DUP in 2017. In two years’ time Johnson – if, indeed, he is still PM – may have to source support from elsewhere.
Yet UK bookmakers still reckon Johnson has a greater chance of securing a majority at 35% than ruling as a minority government (3/1). What’s more, the price on Labour winning a majority is still wider than governing as a minority party, at 4/1 and 3/1 respectively.
Politics Odds Explained
All this goes to show that the top betting sites aren’t yet heeding the latest polling data. Why that is may be down to three things. One, punters seeing a rising price on a Tory victory may opt to take advantage of those higher odds, and therefore depress the market. Roughly 52% of all bets on the 2024 UK election are currently backing a Conservative majority.
The second is that we’re still two years out from the election and the polls have been wrong in the past. Johnson was not expected to secure an 80-seat majority at the 2019 election, Brexit was not meant to happen (according to the polls!) and Donald Trump had a 10% chance of beating Hillary Clinton.
Even the best bookmakers didn’t predict any of these outcomes outright, but were closer in terms of percentages than the polls. Perhaps the polls are wrong here too?
And three, uncertainty. The polls reflect what voters are thinking now but two years is an incredibly long time in politics. Johnson’s stock could fall further, he could be out of a job, or he could be hugely popular come 2024. What’s more, 33% of voters still don’t know what to make of Starmer – an issue Labour need to address.
For now, it’s understandable why betting websites aren’t shifting to be more in line with the polls. After all, chancellor Rishi Sunak is still more likely to be the UK’s next PM than Starmer. But punters are primed to exploit odds when they see an opportunity – and eventually the bookies may act to readjust their prices.
FAQ
When is the next UK election?
The next UK election will take place on Thursday 2 May 2024, under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, which states elections must be held a minimum every five years. However, it can be held sooner than this if two-thirds of MPs agree to a snap election.
How often is there a UK election?
The UK election cycle runs for a maximum of five years, under the terms of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. However, snap elections can also be called at any time, so long as there is a two-thirds majority approval among MPs.
Is there an election if the Prime Minister resigns?
There is no obligation for Parliament to call a new UK election if the Prime Minister resigns their office. This is because the country votes for a party to govern, rather than an individual. However, there could be a no confidence vote in the government, which may trigger a snap election.
Who will win the 2024 UK election?
The UK’s two main parties — Labour and the Conservatives — are likely to dominate the 2024 UK election. The Conservatives have been in power since 2010 and currently boast an 80-seat majority in the House of Commons. Other parties who are likely to run in 2024 include the Liberal Democrats, Green Party and Scottish National Party.
What are the latest UK politics odds?
UK politics betting odds are in a constant state of flux due to the ever-changing nature of global affairs. Top bookmakers offer regular markets for betting on the next Prime Minister, which party will win the next election, and who will be leader of the opposition.
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