Donald Trump 2024 Odds Wobble But Lead Over Joe Biden Remains
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Betting sites have adjusted their odds on Donald Trump winning the 2024 US presidential election and believe he is still the favourite against Joe Biden, despite a recent wobble.
Mr Trump is seeking re-election after losing the 2020 vote. His path back to the White House has been fraught with controversy, but he is leading in the majority of swing states.
The bookies have never really backed away from Mr Trump, even after he lost four years ago. They priced him as a worthy outsider to run again in 2024 and those who backed him have been proven right.
Mr Trump is targeting a return to the Oval Office while facing four criminal trials. He also has to fork out millions of dollars for separate civil cases too.
Not that this has dampened his popularity. The former president has used every court appearance possible as a stump speech opportunity and is raising millions of dollars to finance his campaign.
He is still the man who captures the media spotlight and this, coupled with a swathe of bettors backing him, has made Mr Trump the frontrunner to win the election.
Donald Trump Odds
According to the betting apps, Mr Trump is priced between 11/10 and 9/10 to win the presidential election. Those odds provide a probability range of 47.6% to 52.6%.
Mr Biden, by contrast, is 5/4 and 11/10. His range is from 44/4% to 47.6%, the bottom end of Mr Trump’s.
A handful of political betting sites have priced the pair neck-and-neck but none are willing to push Mr Biden into top spot.
That’s partially because the polls are locked at 46% apiece but mainly because bettors are throwing their weight behind Mr Trump.
More than 58% of all wagers in this market are backing the former president, while Mr Biden holds 21.8% of the market share.
This pressure on Mr Trump has driven his odds down, while Mr Biden is priced higher.
Were the bookies to display odds without any betting activity then it’s likely that the Republican's odds would inflate beyond the Democrat’s.
Will Trump Win In 2024?
The betting markets will continue to rise and fall over the coming months but right now Mr Trump looks in a good position. After all, most incumbent presidents get a poll boost when seeking a second term and Mr Biden simply hasn’t enjoyed that.
November is a genuine 50/50 battle for control of American politics and neither side is backing down.
Mr Trump has the notoriety to challenge Mr Biden and win. His popularity is growing beyond his base and he is steadily building an electoral war chest capable of spending the millions of dollars necessary to win.
The main obstacles in his path, however, are criminal trials. The hush money trial that alleges he hid a payment to an adult film star during the 2016 election campaign begins in mid-April.
The trial regarding the alleged stowing away of classified documents in his Mar-a-Lago home is due to start in May. A trial date for the Fulton County election subversion allegations is expected in August.
Assuming Mr Trump gets through these cases he will be on the home straight to campaigning for president.
He has the fame to steal the media spotlight from Joe Biden and the baseline support to fill stadiums for rallies.
He has the money to pay for the campaign – especially if Truth Social floats as successfully as he hopes – and can contrast Mr Biden’s record as president against his own.
Americans are undecided on who to vote for and this could be one of the closest elections in US history.
Interestingly, among all this the bookies reckon Mr Biden will beat Mr Trump in the popular vote.
America’s presidential system relies on electoral college votes from each state that decide who gets the top job. Mr Trump could lose the popular vote – as he did in 2016 – and still win the presidency.
Coral price him at just 11/4 (26.7% probability) of winning more votes than his rival.
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