Winning Party in the Next US Presidential Election Betting

Craig Cummings

November 9th, 2021

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The next US election is not scheduled until November 2024 but that doesn’t mean the political betting markets have slowed down their pace when it comes to offering up odds.

Numerous bookmakers are providing online betting odds on the Presidential election winning party even though we’re still a long way out from the actual vote. These markets rise and fall depending on the political landscape in Washington DC, and it is this volatility that makes them perfect to wager on early in the presidential cycle.

In this guide, we will take you through the favourites to win the 2024 US election, who could shock the bookmakers, and which markets are worth following over the coming months and years.

Which Political Party will Win the Next Presidential Election?

The US prides itself on being an open democracy but when it comes down to presidential elections it is only ever a two-horse race. The Democrats and Republicans have endured decades of political jostling and have rarely been as split on issues as they currently are.

Some may point to Donald Trump’s populist rise as the catalyst for greater partisanship on the Hill. Others will argue that a political divide in the US has been rumbling for generations.

Regardless, what is important for us is that the politics betting odds accurately reflect the state of the nation, which means punters can bet with confidence on the next presidential election markets. Right now, the Republicans are the very slight favourites to win the US 2024 Presidential election and reclaim the White House – although that weight could easily flip to the Democrat side.

How to Predict the Next US President’s Political Party

The US political system may appear complicated. After all, states each have a set number of votes to back a presidential candidate, which means election night often boils down to just a few million people deciding the fate of the entire nation.

But for political punters simply seeking to back the presidential winner, we don’t really need to worry about the cogs within the machine. Instead, predicting the next US President’s political party can be done simply by looking at the two candidates.

Whoever earns their party’s presidential nomination will face a November vote against their rival for the White House. In order to predict who will win, we need to look at:

• Party support – Ensuring a nominee has the support of their own party is vital if they are to stand a chance of winning an election. If not everyone is behind the nominee – as we saw with Hillary Clinton in 2016 – then they can lose millions of votes.
• Polling figures – The polls are a great gauge of what the nation is feeling and who they are favouring. Often, voters associate themselves with a political party but are then more greatly swayed by the individual presidential candidate, rather than the party. In the US – as in many other democracies – personality counts as much as substance.
• Betting odds – Keeping abreast of the betting odds will always help better inform us on who could win the next election, and therefore which party will be in power. The odds reflect the predictions punters are making on a daily basis and can prove more accurate than the polls, as was the case in 2016!

Can You Bet on the 2024 US Presidential Election Winning Party?

Yes! Betting on politics has been around for decades and there are scores of top bookmakers who have drawn up markets on the presidential election winning party.

Most bookies will as a minimum have a market on which party will win the election: Democrat or Republican. But many others will flesh out their offerings and provide odds on a wide range of outcomes, including:

• 2024 US election winning candidate – This is simply wagering on who will be the next president, with the likes of Joe Biden, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris topping the bill right now.
• State betting – Here you can bet on individual states and which way they will vote at the election. This is a particularly lucrative market when wagering on swing states.
• Margin of victory – Remember that presidents are elected by the number of Electoral College votes they receive, and the magic number is 270. In both 2016 and 2020, the winning candidate won within a margin of 70-80 electoral college votes.

Presidential Election Winning Party Betting Odds

The current presidential betting odds don’t make good reading for Biden or the Democrats. Having swept to power in 2020, it was expected that the party would kick on and deliver a wide range of popular funding schemes to fuel the American economy into a new decade.

But Biden’s poll ratings have gradually fallen since he’s been in office, and this has dragged the party down with him. The Democrats are now Evens to win the next election, while the Republicans are narrower at 5/6.

The actual difference between the two parties’ odds isn’t that significant. In fact, it’s less than 5%, which in betting terms isn’t huge. However, what’s worrying for the Biden administration is that these odds have been set so early into his presidency.

Usually a president starting out in their first term in office has a greater chance of winning the next election. Two-term presidencies are common in America, and the odds usually reflect the likelihood of an incumbent defending their position.

But Biden was already against the ropes just six months into his reign. That’s a difficult position to come back from, especially when the midterms usually benefit the party in opposition. Right now, the Republicans are sitting pretty on a slender advantage that should grow.

Betting on 2024 United States Presidential Election

When it actually comes to betting on the US election many punters leave it too late to place their wagers. This happened in 2020 when Biden’s odds during the Democratic primaries were a lot better than his price come election day.

The issue punters have is that when we draw closer to an election, more people bet on the market. This means bookmakers deflate the odds on those picks that are becoming more popular. We saw this in August 2020 when, for two weeks, Trump’s odds crashed him into the favourite position, only to then widen again – a fluctuation much like gambling on the stock markets.

It’s almost certain that we will see these types of fluctuations again when the two presidential nominees are known, and fair-weather punters rekindle their interest in these political markets.

To avoid the market volatility, therefore, bettors who want to make strong gains in this field should wager earlier than the final months of the election campaign. Remember, odds usually squeeze closer to the event, so betting ahead of time means punters take advantage of much more favourable – and profitable – prices.

Of course, it’s one thing to know when to bet. Who to bet on, however, is a much tougher decision!

Best Sites to Bet on the Next US Presidential Election Winning Party

There are two factors you should use to determine which site to use when betting on the next US presidential election winning party. One is the odds – does your chosen site have the best betting odds in comparison to others? Bookmakers are always scrambling to set competitive odds but some offer better prices than their rivals.

The other factor is range of betting markets. In this guide we have discussed betting on the specific political party that could win the US election. But there are scores of other betting markets that emerge in the run-up to an election, such as:

• Winning margin
• State betting
• First TV network to call the election
• Debate betting
• Vice president picks

With so many outcomes to bet on it’s worth finding a bookie that works for you. Here are some of our recommended betting sites.