Rhys Williams' Racing Tips: 7 Selections For Saturday
Horse racing expert Rhys Williams is sharing his best selections for the Cheltenham Festival.
Rhys has been a racing analyst for over 10 years, working for At The Races and most recently as a tipster for Betfair where his tipping column had a 31% ROI over four and a half years.
He often focuses away from the front end of the market, finding angles that aren't evident to most.
Thanks to last week's 50/1 winner at the Cheltenham Festival (Apolon De Charnie), Rhys has returned a profit of 88.43 points and his profit and loss record for the year stands at +18.93 points from 69.5 points staked.
Here are Rhys' tips for Saturday, using the most up-to-date odds from the best horse racing betting sites.
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14:00 Fontwell: Galactic Jack - 0.5pt Win @ 13/2
Galactic Jack is making his stable debut for the Moores and I think has the potential to improve for the switch.
Considering the ability that he showed on the flat for Andrew Balding, Galactic Jack was disappointing over hurdles for various trainers but he showed more on handicap debut at Taunton where he would have finished closer but for making an awful mistake at the last.
The Moores are a level above the trainers who Galactic Jack has previously run for over hurdles so I’m hopeful they can get more from him and the ground should be fine for him having handled soft ground on the flat.
There is the obvious concern that he’s returning from a very long break so it might be that he will need the run or isn’t as good as he was but he looks overpriced in a weak race.
Any 6/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 1: 14:00 Fontwell - Galactic Jack - 0.5pt Win
14:15 Newcastle: Calgary Tiger - 1.5pt Win @ 11/1
Calgary Tiger has faced a tough task in his last two starts and I think he can fare much better now back down at a suitable level.
He ran well for a long way at Cheltenham on his first start of the season when racing from 11lb out of the handicap, making the running before weakening quickly approaching the final bend and he was well beaten when coming down at the last.
It’s easy to excuse his latest run at Kempton when racing from 32lb out of the handicap.
Prior to this season, he ran well in handicaps off slightly higher marks including when third behind the well handicapped Imperial Saint at Aintree.
While others in this race can race prominently, I don’t think they will be able to go with Calgary Tiger early on if he’s his usual enthusiastic racing self and I think the market is underestimating the chance of him staying in front in a race of this quality.
Any 8/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 2: 14:15 Newcastle - Calgary Tiger - 1.5pt Win
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14:40 Kempton: Le Tiep's Sacre - 1pt Win @ 18/1
Le Tiep’s Sacre is a promising youngster and I think the market is overlooking his chance of handicap debut.
He showed ability on his hurdling debut at Auteuil when trained by David Cottin, finishing third behind Hassadam and Free Spirit, who was beaten 22 lengths in the Turners on Wednesday.
Purchased to join the Moores after that, Le Tiep’s Sacre made a promising start for them at Sandown when he travelled well and looked to have a big chance going to the last but he made a mistake there and finished third.
He built on that with victory at Fontwell where he showed that he would likely be better going right-handed and probably over further and he gets that scenario today.
He still looked a shell in those runs so I think he’s likely to have strengthened up plenty since then and hopefully will be fit enough on his first start after just over a year off to show something like his full ability.
I expect he will likely be better next season over fences given his stature and maybe this ground will be a little on the quick side for him.
However, I would be surprised if Le Tiep’s Sacre doesn’t show himself to be a fair bit better than a mark of 118 at some time and hopefully that will be today.
Any 12/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 3: 14:40 Kempton - Le Tiep's Sacre - 1pt Win
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17:10 Newcastle: Bay Runner - 0.5pt Win @ 20/1
Bay Runner caught the eye on his sole start in the Irish pointing field and I think the market is underestimating his chance of making a winning rules debut in the bumper at Newcastle.
Having been held up, he was a bit awkward around the tight bend leaving the back straight and that put him a few lengths off the pair who were leading the chase in trying to catch Rebel Ridge.
Bay Runner responded well to pressure and closed up into contention at the last but his effort flattened out on the run-in and he finished third.
The winner has since run well when finishing second in a bumper while the fourth won a point next time out and has since finished second in a bumper too.
There is the obvious concern that the yard has been in awful form this season but their first runner for a month was only beaten half a length at 100/1 last week so maybe that’s a sign that they have been able to fix whatever was causing the poor run.
Any 12/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 4: 17:10 Newcastle - Bay Runner - 0.5pt Win
17:20 Uttoxeter: Jenny France - 1pt Win @ 4/1
Jenny France is another ex-pointer who appeals in a bumper today, this time in the mares bumper at Uttoxeter as she makes her first start for Joe Tizzard.
She only ran ok when finishing second on debut to Clody Diamond before taking a big step forward on her second start at Lingstown.
There were three still in a tight group approaching two out but after jumping it she quickly left the other pair behind and would have won by even further but for a mistake at the last.
The manner in which Jenny France quickened away on that ground was taking and the surface today is in her favour.
There is a concern that she had an issue after that, which was why she ended up in a sale much longer than usual after he win, and that she’s only appearing now suggests they haven’t had a clear run with her.
However, if she still retains the ability she showed at Lingstown then she’s more of a danger to Vrheligonne than the market suggests.
Any 3/1 or bigger appeals.
18:30 Southwell: Alfa Sea Breeze - 0.5pt Win @ 30/1
Alfa Sea Breeze was well held on her handicap debut at Beverley when last seen but she didn’t get the chance to show her true ability that day and I think the market is underestimating her chance on her return.
She raced behind the leaders on the rail that day and seemed to be in an ideal position but she got trapped behind them as they started to fade and could only get a clear run late on, making a little headway to finish fifth.
Alfa Sea Breeze still looked green that day so hopefully she learned from the experience and I think the switch back to an artificial surface could suit her too.
There is a concern that she’s drawn wide given her front running nature and she might face some competition for the early lead but I think she can run better than her prices suggests.
Any 16/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 6: 18:30 Southwell - Alfa Sea Breeze - 0.5pt Win
18:30 Southwell: Opal Storm - 0.5pt Win @ 30/1
If they do go quick up front and set it up for a closer, then I think Opal Storm has a better chance of being the one to take advantage of that than her price would suggest.
She’s often run over five furlongs, but I think recent efforts have shown that she may be capable of better over a flat six furlongs and she gets that today.
When finishing fourth behind Fletchers Dream at Newcastle, she travelled well before her effort flattened out on the climb to the line.
It’s easy to forgive her run two starts ago at Wolverhampton as she got badly hampered when looking to make headway on the rail turning the final bend and she didn’t get a clear run on her latest start at Newcastle.
It might be that she’s just tricky to place and is in between trips but if they do go quick and Opal Storm can get a clear run from stall one, I think she has a better chance than her big price suggests.
Any 20/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 7: 18:30 Southwell - Alfa Sea Breeze - 0.5pt Win
All odds correct at time of publish.
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