Rhys Williams' Racing Tips: 6 Selections For Saturday
Horse racing expert Rhys Williams is sharing his best selections for today's racing.
Rhys has been a racing analyst for over 10 years, working for At The Races and most recently as a tipster for Betfair, where his tipping column had a 31% ROI over four and a half years.
He often focuses away from the front end of the market, finding angles that aren't evident to most.
Rhys' tips have returned 242.62 points from 165.00 points staked, meaning his profit and loss record stands at +77.62pts overall - thanks to a sensational recent spell that included a 33/1 and a trio of 28/1 winning selections.
Here are Rhys' tips for today, using the most up-to-date odds from the best horse racing betting sites.
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Cartmel 13:35: Stavanger Rose 0.5pt Each-Way @ 100/1
I think the front trio in the market were flattered to finish as close to the winner as they did in their last starts, and it’s a runner with unappealing form figures who appeals at a big price against them.
Stavanger Rose was a selection in this column two starts ago in a novices’ seller at Exeter, and she was still travelling well when unseating in the back straight.
She was back in non-selling company at Newton Abbot last time and ran much better than the market was expecting.
Having been allowed to go to the front at an early stage, she was still there turning in but was headed on the run to two out and had faded into third when coming down at the last.
She was up against a couple of decent rivals that day, and I suspect the runner-up would be near the head of the market if lining up in this.
It may be that she will be a bit better going the other way around and over a little shorter, but Stavanger Rose’s price is too big to ignore, and any 25/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 1: 13:35 Cartmel: Stavanger Rose - 0.5pts Each-Way
Bangor 13:50: Double Indemnity 1pt Win @ 17/2
Ladies Day is an extremely short price for the opening maiden hurdle at Bangor, and it may be that she will be too classy for her rivals now racing at a track that is likely to be more suitable for her than Fakenham.
However, I think one of her rivals could be a bigger danger than the market suggests.
Double Indemnity was pulled up at this track in March, but he was reported to have had an irregular heartbeat that day, so the performance is easily excused.
He was sent off at 100/30 that day in what looked a stronger race than this after running well on his previous start at Carlisle.
Despite showing a tendency to jump to the left, he managed to finish second to It’s Top, who is now rated 113 over hurdles.
If he’s able to get back to that level of form and possibly build on it a little with the left-handed track to suit, I think Double Indemnity can put up a challenge to Ladies Day and any 11/2 or bigger appeals.
York 16:25: Plan C 0.5pt Win @ 13/2
Plan C makes his seasonal and handicap debut at York this afternoon, and I think he has a good chance of making it a winning one, having shown promise as a two-year-old.
He was green on debut at Newbury and improved a fair bit from that next time at Kempton when staying on well to finish third behind a couple of horses now rated in the 90s.
Plan C was facing a tough task last time at Sandown against Accredit, and while he was no match for that rival, he kept battling on admirably to only be beaten three lengths.
I think the step up in trip today is a positive for his chance, as is getting into a race where he is likely to have a good pace to close into.
It may be that he will end up needing the run a little against race-fit rivals, but I think he’s a little overpriced and any 11/2 or bigger appeals.
Goodwood 16:55: Arlo’s Girl 0.5pt Each-Way @ 18/1
The early market hasn’t missed that One And Gone could be the lone front runner in this race, and his extremely quick breaking from the stalls could see him clear in the early stages.
However, a rival who finished behind him at Chester last time appeals at the prices against him.
While One And Gone was flying out of the stalls to get into a handy position, Arlo’s Girl missed the break and raced in last early on.
She got stuck on the heels of rivals ahead of her as the pace steadied with three furlongs to go, and then ended up very wide on the bend, turning into the home straight.
She had no chance from there but made some late headway to finish seventh.
Hopefully, Arlo’s Girl will be able to have a smoother passage through the race today, and if she can get back to showing more early speed, then she could end up in a good position towards the head of the chasing pack.
Any 14/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 4: 16:55 Goodwood: Arlo's Girl - 0.5pt Each-Way
Haydock 17:15: Ancient Rome 0.5pt Win @ 11/1
There has been some early money for Ancient Rome in the closing handicap at Haydock, but I think he’s still a little overpriced after catching the eye on his seasonal debut at Newbury.
Having been held up, he could never get a clear run and ended up being switched to the near rail late on, where all he could do was follow through Oliver Show to be beaten just over six lengths.
Ancient Rome was inconsistent last season, and it might be that it will once again be the case this season, and he will revert to a less encouraging performance today.
I think the 2lb drop for a run where he could never come off the bridle is generous.
It seems connections have been waiting for some cut in the ground to run him again.
Any double-figure prices appeal.
Salisbury 20:45: Trojan Storm 1pt Win @ 14/1
Trojan Storm has been running over all sorts of trips this season, but he’s now back down to a more suitable one, and with the tongue tie refitted, I think he could run well in the last at Salisbury.
His last two runs have been over two miles on the all-weather, and he’s looked an obvious non-stayer on both occasions.
Prior to that, he had been racing over trips between a mile and 1m2f in three runs on the all-weather, and while the handicapper didn’t seem to want to play ball in the first two, they have finally relented of late and dropped him to a mark of 75.
He ran well off a 1lb lower mark when last racing in a tongue tie, which also happened to be over 1m4f at York last season.
He finished third that day to Secret Beach and Crowd Quake, who are now rated 10lb and 23lb higher, respectively, than they were racing off that day.
The return to this trip looks ideal for Trojan Storm, and while there has been some early money for him, he still looks overpriced in these circumstances. Any double-figure prices appeal.
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