Super Bowl LVI Prop Bet Trends You Need to Know
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Super Bowl LVI pitting the Cincinnati Bengals taking on the Los Angeles Rams is just days away and the excitement will build as kickoff approaches at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.
There are an overwhelming number of prop bets being posted at all sportsbooks including the WestGate that released their pro bets last Thursday.
Louisiana just recently passed legislation that has legalized sports betting and the sportsbooks, like the BetMGM Sportsbook, Fan Duel, and DraftKings apps, have seen an explosion in new accounts looking to place bets.
So, the Rams are playing at their home stadium marking only the second time in Super Bowl history that a team had home-field advantage. Last year, the Tampa Bay Bucs and Tom Brady won Super Bowl LV on their home field at Raymond James Stadium.
How do Underdogs Do in the Super Bowl?
Over the past 20 Super Bowls, underdogs of +150 or greater using the moneyline have been an outstanding 5-1 straight-up (SU) and a perfect 6-0 against the spread (ATS).
Plus, Dogs of four or more points have earned a highly profitable 7-5 SU record, 10-2 ATS for 83.3% winning bets, including a 5-7 over-under record over the last 20 Super Bowls.
Looking at Regular Season Wins Totals
The Bengals were expected to be a losing record team with a regular-season wins total line of 6.5 wins.
The Rams were expected to be a Super Bowl contender with a posted regular-season wins line of 10.5 points.
There have been just three teams in the past 20 Super Bowls with regular-season wins totals of 8 or lower.
In 2017, the Patriots stunned the Falcons 34-28 and the Patriots regular-season wins line was 7.5 wins.
In Super Bowl LIV, the San Francisco 49ers lost to the Kansas City Chiefs and had a regular-season wins line of 8 wins.
Last year, the Bucs took down the Chiefs in last year’s Super Bowl LV by a 31-9 final score and were lined at seven wins. So, not much here to chew on, given the Bengals' stunning turnaround from last year’s 3-win season.
Using Game Performance Parameters
There is a condition needed to be mentioned. If both teams have played three playoff games before the Super Bowl, I use a summation of the performance stats. If a team that was on the bye and played only two games to reach the Super Bowl, then an average team playoff stat is utilized.
The team with the fewest made first downs in the playoffs has gone 13-7 SU, 12-8 against the spread, for 60% winning bets, including a 9-11 over-under record. To date, in the playoffs, the Bengals have made 56 first downs and the Rams have had 63 first downs so, this situation puts a checkmark next to the Bengals.
The team with fewer sacks in the playoffs has gone on to a 10-7 SU record, 11-6 ATS, for 65% winning bets, and an 8-9 over-under mark.
Three Super Bowls had both teams record the same number of sacks. If the team with the fewer sacks is installed as the underdog has seen them go on to a 5-5 SU record, 7-3 ATS, for 70% winning bets, including a 4-6 over-under mark.
The Rams have had fewer playoff sacks despite ranking fifth-best in the NFL regular season with an 8% sack percentage.
Red Zone Success in the Playoffs
The team with the higher playoff red zone scores has gone on to a rather surprising 8-12 SU record, 8-12 ATS record, including 10-10 over-under record. The team with the higher playoff red zone success rate (red zones scored/red zone appearances) has gone on to a 10-10 SU record, 8-12 ATS record, including a 9-11 over-under record.
Over their last three playoffs games, the Rams have converted on 50% of their red zone scoring opportunities, while the Bengals have converted on 48.8% of their red zone scoring opportunities.
The team averaging more yards gained per pass play, including the regular season and playoffs, has been a miserable 6-14 SU record, 7-13 ATS, and a 9-11 over-under record.
During the regular season, the Rams averaged 7.9 yards and the Bengals 7.8 per pass attempt, respectively. Over the last three playoff games, the Rams have averaged 9.1 and Bengals 6.9 yards per pass play.
The Yards Per Point Ratio
The Rams produced a 0.431 points per play ratio during the regular season and a 0.414 ratio during the current playoffs.
Favorites that enter the Super Bowl having attained a 0.40 ratio or higher have not done well, sporting an 8-7 SU record, 6-9 ATS mark for 40%, and a 69- over-under record.
The Bengals achieved a 0.430 points per play ratio during the regular season and a 0.377 ratio during the playoffs.
So, favorites that have the better (higher) points per play ratio have earned a 4-7 SU record for 36%, 3-8 ATS for 27.3%, including a 3-8 over-under record.
Does Win Percentage Matter?
Super Bowls that featured dogs having the same number of wins on the season are 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, with a sparkling 1-4 Over-Under mark.
The Eagles’ Super Bowl win in the 2018 season over the New England Patriots was the last Super Bowl pitting two teams with the same number of wins.
Now, what about teams that have had fewer wins than their Super Bowl opponent? Conventional wisdom would suggest that the team with more wins would have a significant advantage.
Not so fast. The teams with the lower win percentage (fewer wins) are on an 11-4 SU record that includes a near-perfect 14-1 ATS mark last 20 Super Bowls, and these teams are installed as dogs, they are money-making ATMs sporting a 6-4 SU record, 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets, including a 3-7 Over-Under for 70% winning Under bets.
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