Betting Analysis and Predictions for the Olympic Downhill Skiing
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The Winter Olympic Opening Ceremonies are set to honor all the athletes and the countries they represent. Still, most of these athletes have already begun their preparations for their events.
I will provide insights for all sports ranging from speed skating to Alpine skiing and everything in between that does not involve judges. The major sportsbooks, like BetMGM Sportsbook are rightfully accepting sports wagers on events that are pure competition among the athletes and not accepting wagers in any event involving judges, like figure skating.
On Feb. 5, the premier event in Alpine skiing, the Men’s Downhill, will be contested, and the gold, silver, and bronze medals will be awarded.
Ahead of the Opening Ceremonies, the 56 participants representing 21 countries in the Men’s Downhill were permitted to start training sessions on a new course that no skier has ever run.
The gold medalist in the 2014 downhill, Matthias Mayer of Austria, was the first to get into the starter’s hut on top of the mountain at the Yanqing National Alpine Center.
The Pandemic and China’s strict border controls prevented the normal World Cup protocols from taking place ahead of this Olympics. Under normal circumstances, the World Cup holds an event one year before the Olympics, so downhill skiers can prepare for what is usually a new course.
So, now we have the world’s best trying to learn a new course at speeds exceeding 85. Downhill skiers are risk-takers and have no room for fear or hesitancy on the course. The medal winners in past Olympic downhill races challenged the mountain and won. This downhill might feature medal winners that took a more conservative approach to navigate and took risks at the right spots along the course – instead of just going for it.
The Rock Course Breakdown
The course is 2 miles long (2,950 meters) and nicknamed Rock because it runs mostly through a mountain canyon with many more turns and minimal gliding sections as is typical in a World Cup course.
The course drops 894 meters from the start gate to finish line has 40 turning gates, some of which will require immense leg strength to navigate.
The snow is manufactured and perfect for the downhill, according to many of the skiers after their training sessions. As each day unfolds, increased speed without missing any gates will be the biggest factor for these skiers as the event approaches.
The trial runs are timed, so pay close attention to the skiers that break out of the pack Saturday as they may be the ones seen on the podium.
Mens Olympic Downhill Favorites
| Skiier | Country | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aleksander A. Kilde | Norway | +300 |
| Beat Feuz | Switzerland | +300 |
| Matthias Mayer | Austria | +600 |
| Marco Odermatt | Switzerland | +600 |
| Daminik Paris | Italy | +1000 |
| Vincent Kriechmayr | Austria | +2000 |
| Johan Clarey | France | +2000 |
| Daniel Hemetsberger | Austria | +2000 |
| Christof Innerhofer | Italy | +3300 |
| Niels Hintermann | Switzerland | +4000 |
| Bryce Bennett | United States | +4000 |
| Kjetil Jansrud | Norway | +4000 |
| Max Franz | Austria | +5000 |
| Travis Ganong | United States | +6600 |
| Otmar Striedinger | Austria | +6600 |
| Blaise Giezendanner | France | +8000 |
| Romed Baumann | Germany | +6600 |
| James Crawford | Canada | +8000 |
| Matteo Marsaglia | Italy | +10000 |
| Dominik Schwaiger | Germany | +15000 |
| The Field | +2200 |
Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook
The Downhill Gold Medal
This is the Super Bowl equivalent for Switzerland, Austria, and Norway citizens. The winner of this event will return to his homeland a superstar, just like when Tom Brady and the Patriots/Bucs would return home having won the Lombardi Trophy.
Believe me, it is much bigger for the winner since they represent an entire country with bragging rights until the next Winter Olympics. So, a new course with the pressure of an entire nation weighing on these elite athletes provides the backdrop for some incredible viewing entertaining starting at 10 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Who to Bet On
I am a U.S citizen, I would enjoy seeing an upset win by the likes of Bryce Bennett (+4000) or Travis Ganong (+6600), who are getting great sports betting odds.
But as good as those two are, they pale in comparison to the favorites such as Aleksander A. Kilde of Norway (+300) and his rival, Beat Feuz of Sweden (+300).
The downhill is potentially a four-man race that includes Austria’s Matthias Mayer (+600), the 2014 gold medal winner, and Sweden’s Marco Odermatt (+600). Mayer posted the 37th fastest trial run on the first day.
These four names will rise to the top of the fastest practice runs over the next two days of trial runs and the medal winners will more than likely come from this group.
The last World Cup speed race before the Olympics on the storied Streif downhill course held a few weeks ago, Switzerland went 1-2, with four-time defending World Cup Champion Fuez winning by 0.21 seconds over compatriot Odermatt. Daniel Hemetsberger of Austria was third, trailing by 0.90 seconds behind Feuz and Mayer was fourth.
Who Will Finish in The Top 3?
| Skiier | Country | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aleksander A. Kilde | Norway | -110 |
| Beat Feuz | Switzerland | +110 |
| Marco Odermatt | Switzerland | +140 |
| Matthias Mayer | Austria | +150 |
| Vincent Kriechmayr | Austria | +200 |
| Daminik Paris | Italy | +250 |
| Johan Clarey | France | +500 |
| Daniel Hemetsberger | Austria | +500 |
| Christof Innerhofer | Italy | +800 |
| Niels Hintermann | Switzerland | +1200 |
| Bryce Bennett | United States | +1200 |
| Kjetil Jansrud | Norway | +1200 |
| Max Franz | Austria | +1600 |
| Romed Baumann | Germany | +1600 |
| Travis Ganong | United States | +2000 |
| Otmar Striedinger | Austria | +2000 |
| Blaise Giezendanner | France | +2500 |
| James Crawford | Canada | +2500 |
| Stefan Rogentin | Switzerland | +2500 |
| Matteo Marsaglia | Italy | +3300 |
| Dominik Schwaiger | Germany | +4000 |
| Ryan Cochran-Siegle | United States | +4000 |
Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook
The fastest run that was not a potential disqualification has been posted by James Crawford of Canada with a time of 1:44.34 for the first day.
On the second day, Marco Odermatt will be first to challenge the mountain, Mayer will be seventh, Kilde will be 17th and Feuz 19th to start.
Historical Results and Winning Margin of the Downhill
In the 2018 Olympics, Norway’s Aksel Lund Svindal won the gold medal by 0.12 seconds over compatriot Kjetil Jansrud. Veat Feuz won the bronze, trailing Svindal by 0.18 seconds.
As mentioned, Mayer won the gold medal in the 2014 Olympics held in Russia, with Italy’s Innerhofer trialing by 0.06 seconds to win the silver, and Jansrud the bronze trailing by only 0.10 seconds. At speeds that can average 75+ MPH, the margin of victory is inches over a 2-mile course.
At the 2010 Games in Vancouver, the margin between gold and silver was 0.07 seconds, and margin from gold to bronze was 0.09 seconds. Team USA’s Bode Miller won the bronze medal and is the last American skier to medal in the downhill.
At Torino in 2006, the gold medal winner Frenchman Deneriaz won by 1.02 seconds, which is about the equivalent of 30 meters. However, this event is the outlier for how close these events are contested.
Margin of Victory Since 1976
| Year | Site | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 1976 | Innsbruck | .33 |
| 1980 | Lake Placid | .62 |
| 1984 | Sarajevo | .27 |
| 1988 | Calgary | .05 |
| 1992 | Albertville | .05 |
| 1994 | Lillehammer | .04 |
| 1998 | Nagano | .04 |
| 2002 | Salt Lake City | .22 |
| 2006 | Torino | .72 |
| 2010 | Vancouver | .07 |
| 2014 | Sochi | .06 |
| 2018 | Pyeongchang | .12 |
| Average | .215 |
The last 12 Olympic Downhill winners won by a combined total of 2.59 seconds or an average of 0.215 seconds per event. Someone will gain an edge over the next training sessions and I like the bet that the margin of victory will be between 0.21 and 0.30 seconds at +350.
Where to Put Your Money
I also will be betting value with a pizza money sized wager on Italy’s Dominik Paris at +1000 and must put some dough (pun intended) on Team USA athletes Bryce Bennett to medal at +1200 and Travis Ganong to medal at +2000.
Good Luck to everyone and remember always bet with your head and never over it and may all the wins be yours.
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