Home Run Derby Odds Breakdown: Who Should You Bet to Win?

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Home Run Derby Odds Breakdown: Who Should You Bet to Win?
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Pete Alonso of the New York Mets will attempt to make history on Monday at the 2022 MLB Home Run Derby. If Alonso wins, he will become just the second player to win three home run derbies, joining Ken Griffey Jr. 

Alonso would also be the first player ever to win three consecutive derbies.  

What the Sportsbooks Say

For MLB betting players, Alonso is the favorite. At FanDuel, DraftKings and BetMGM, he has varying odds. His lowest number is at FanDuel, where he’s +165. Alonso is also +200 at BetMGM, while his best number is currently +255 at DraftKings.  

Here’s an odds breakdown and background for each competitor in the 2022 Home Run Derby in Los Angeles.  

Pete Alonso, 24 home runs, +255 DraftKings Sportsbook 

It’s hard to want to go against Alonso considering the power display he showcased over the last two years. He launched 57 homers in Cleveland to claim the 2019 title before going off for 74 home runs at Coors Field in Denver last year.  

Alonso has continued his powerful form into this regular season, recording 24 home runs so far, tied for the fifth-most in the league.  

Kyle Schwarber, 28 home runs, +320 FanDuel Sportsbook 

If there was a player whose swing was built for the home run derby, it’s Philadelphia’s Schwarber. His quick, effortless swing, paired with his powerful 6-foot, 229-pound frame has led to 28 home runs this year – second most

this season. The ball jumps off his bat, with Schwarber averaging the 10th-highest exit velocity this season (93 mph), which is the fastest of any player in this year’s derby.  

This will be Schwarber’s second home run derby he’s entered. In 2018, he hit 55 home runs and made the finals before losing to now-teammate Bryce Harper.  

Schwarber also has the benefit of facing the past-its-prime version of Albert Pujols in the first round. 

Ronald Acuna Jr., eight home runs, +700 FanDuel Sportsbook 

Injuries are responsible for Acuna Jr’s low home run total this season. After recovering from a torn ACL, he made his season debut on April 28 and has missed other games, allowing him to compete in just 57 of the Atlanta Braves 91 contests this season. 

In Acuna Jr’s last full regular season, he knocked out 41 home runs in 2019 and had 14 in 46 games during the shortened 2020 campaign. Acuna Jr. will get the difficult task of facing Alonso in the first round.  

Juan Soto, 19 home runs, +650 DraftKings Sportsbook 

Washington’s Soto made waves at last year’s home run derby by knocking out the longest recorded home run ever recorded by Statcast at 520 feet. At Coors Field, Soto knocked out 46 home runs and defeated Shohei Ohtani in the first round before falling to Alonso in the semifinals.  

Soto has 19 home runs this season. 

Julio Rodriguez, 15 home runs, +1100 DraftKings Sportsbook 

Only two rookies have ever won the Home Run Derby, and Seattle’s Rodriguez will attempt to become the third. Alonso and Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge are the only two to have accomplished this feat.  

Rodriguez has emerged as one of the top young players. He sports a .274/.334/.447 batting line with 15 homers and 21 stolen bases.  

Corey Seager, 21 home runs, +1300 FanDuel Sportsbook 

Seager was the final participant announced in the Home Run Derby Field with the Texas Rangers, replacing an injured George Springer of the Toronto Blue Jays.  

This will be Seager’s second Home Run Derby after losing to Mark Trumbo in the first round in 2016. Seager will face off against Rodriguez in this year’s first round. 

Jose Ramirez, 17 home runs, +1600 FanDuel Sportsbook 

In addition to Alonso and Cleveland’s Rodriguez attempting to make their own history, Ramirez can become the first switch hitter to win the Home Run Derby.  

Ramirez will face Soto in his first-round matchup.  

Albert Pulos, +2200 FanDuel Sportsbook 

Pujols’ entrance to the Home Run Derby is nothing more than a ceremonial gesture. The 42-year-old has the least amount of homers of anyone in this field (six) and only made the All-Star game because of an appointment from Commissioner Rob Manfred. Don’t waste your money backing this fossil.

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Bryce Derouin

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