Betting Advice and Analysis For the Toyota Owners 400
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Similar to Chase Briscoe finally earning his first win of this NASCAR season the week I don’t suggest him as a longshot or a best bet, Ross Chastain scored his first Cup win the first week I didn’t have him listed as a winner after a few weeks of listing him as a possible victor.
Hopefully, you stuck with him and cashed with Chastain winning at COTA during a thrilling finish, edging out Alex Bowman, who took second place and was close to cashing out the group prop last week until he was taken out by Chastain.
Chastain has continued to be one of the fastest drivers out there, with four top-three finishes in his past four starts, including the win at COTA, two seconds and a third. The days of getting Chastain to win at 25/1 or more are gone. He’s now down to 12/1 on DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook to win Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway.
There have been six different winners in six races, proving parity has been achieved with the new NextGen car.
This will be the first race where the Cup series is headed to a similar type of track that it has visited earlier in the season.
Richmond is a flat three-quarter-mile track that has similar characteristics to Phoenix. NASCAR visited Phoenix three weeks ago, so if a team was fast there, it could likely duplicate success here at Richmond.
Phoenix is where Briscoe earned his first win and Chastain took second. Briscoe is 18/1 to win this weekend. The good long numbers on two guys we were tracking are officially gone.
Best Bet
Alex Bowman +1800 DraftKings Sportsbook
Sportsbooks are adjusting to the parity in the Cup series this season. Only when Kyle Larson won at Fontana has the favorite cashed this season. Larson’s win was also the only instance of a driver with less than 10/1 odds taking the checkered flag first. Now, 14 drivers have odds listed at less than 20/1 for Sunday’s race.
This week, I’m targeting Bowman to win. He has shown speed this season with a win at Las Vegas and was set to win at COTA before getting taken out in one of the last corners by Chastain.
Hendrick Motorsports is responsible for three of the six wins this season and Richmond is a place where Bowman has had success. Bowman won the April race last season, and his combination of past success and recent speed is enough for me to back him again.
Best Longshot
Daniel Suarez +3300 BetMGM Sportsbook
Going with Chastain’s teammate in Trackhouse Racing. The high numbers on Chastain may be gone, but there still is some value on Suarez at this number on BetMGM Sportsbook, who has shown similar flashes of speed this season.
At COTA, he led 15 laps and won Stage 1 after starting second. But a flat tire during Stage 2 resulted in a spinout. Suarez also eventually lost power steering on lap 40 and then had another tire go flat with three laps left when he had climbed to 12th. Suarez had to settle for 24th.
Suarez has also been fast at the traditional ovals. He finished fourth at Fontana, ninth at Phoenix and fourth at Atlanta. Like Chastain, he has been fast, and it could also be a matter of time before he secures his first win for Trackhouse Racing.
Best Prop
Denny Hamlin Top 5 +130 DraftKings Sportsbook
It has not been an ideal season for Denny Hamlin thus far. One of the preseason title favorites has yet to capture a top 10 and has crashed out twice and suffered a drivetrain issue in another race. But if there’s a get-right spot for him and Joe Gibbs Racing, it’s at Richmond.
In 30 races, he has 15 top-five finishes here, including three wins. Last season he finished second in both races while dominating both, leading 207 laps in the April race and 197 in the September event.
The past form hasn’t been there, but it’s hard to ignore his overall dominance at this track. Hamlin is also +340 for a top-three on FanDuel Sportsbook and +1200 to win the race.
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