Looks Like 76ers and Heat are All About Home Favorites; Should You Bet That Way?

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Looks Like 76ers and Heat are All About Home Favorites; Should You Bet That Way?
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In tonight's NBA action, both series are tied at 2-2. We move back to the home sites for the higher seeds for the respective Game 5s. 

How will it affect your NBA betting strategy?

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat

7:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Philadelphia center Joel Embiid, the betting odds favorite to win his first MVP award, was spurned at the altar, with the award going to Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets. 

Embiid and his 76ers teammates must be disappointed, but they will use this perceived slight to their advantage for the rest of the playoffs.

What the Trends and Angles Reveal

The Heat are 4-13 against the spread after failing to cover in two or more consecutive games over the past two seasons.
In Game 4, the 76ers shot 48.5% from 3-point range, and the Heat shot 20%. 

Playoff teams that are coming off a game where they shot 47.5% or better from 3-point range and the opponent in that game shot 22.5% or lower from 3-point range and with the series in Game 5 or more, have gone 8-3 ATS for 73% winning bets.

My Predictive Models are Pointing to a Best Bet

From my predictive models, the 76ers are expected to score 111 or more points and have a better assist to turnover ratio. 

In the regular season and playoffs, the 76ers, when on the road and have met or exceeded this pair of performance measures, are 28-7, for 80% wins and 25-10 ATS, for 71.4% winning bets.
I am betting the 76ers with 50% of my normal bet size on the moneyline and 50% on the spread receiving 2.5 points.

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns

10 p.m. ET, TNT

In Game 3, Chris Paul had six turnovers, matching his career playoff high. His teams were 4-0 against the spread following a playoff game where he turned the ball over six or more times. 

Then in Game 4, he got in foul trouble and was reduced to being a spectator for most of the night. He has a Hall-of-Fame resume even without a championship and I think he will bounce back with one of the best playoff games of his career.

Live In-Game Betting Strategy

I like the Over at 215 points. My strategic plan is to bet 50% of my normal bet size pre-flop (before the opening tip-off) at 215 points and then look to add 25% of my normal bet size at 209.5 points and the remaining 25% at 206.6 points.
These specific levels are calculated using a Wall Street term for options trading called implied volatility, which estimates the range of the price movement of the underlying security. 

My edition of implied volatility attempts to capture 85% of the projected scoring pace of play. These projected ranges provide for opportunities to buy into weakness after the pace of play has been abnormally slow and/or sell into strength with the pace of scoring so fast that it's unsustainable.

The key to live betting is to have a plan in place before the tip-off. A sure way to lose money is to hedge a poor pre-flop bet to try to break even. 

By betting on both teams, you increase the probability of losing both bets and compounding the initial bet.

Other Bets I Like Tonight

  • Bet Mikal Bridges Over 16.5 points and assists at -105 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
    Bet Tyrese Maxey Over 23.5 points and assists at -110 as offered at DraftKings Sportsbook.
    Bet Tyrese Maxey scores first and the 76ers win at +1800 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

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John Ryan

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