U.S. Open Picks: Betting Advice for the Women's Final

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U.S. Open Picks: Betting Advice for the Women's Final
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On two occasions this U.S. Open, world No. 1 Iga Swiatek has appeared vulnerable.  

She dropped the first set and fell down a break to No. 108 Julie Niemeier in the fourth round before turning it around and winning 12 of the next 14 games while tallying her 19th bagel of the 2022 season to advance (2-6, 6-4, 6-0). 

Then, on Friday, No. 6 Aryna Sabalenka broke Swiatek in two of her first three service games in the match-deciding third set before going up 4-2. Swiatek responded by winning 16 of the next 20 points to take the following four games in just 17 minutes.  

“I’m pretty happy even though maybe I wasn’t feeling 100% perfectly from the beginning of the tournament,” Swiatek said after her match. “I was still able to get better and better and to play a really solid game.” 

Swiatek’s dominant 2022 has produced a sense of inevitability when she finds her form. There was her 37-match winning streak earlier this season that included her second career Grand Slam championship at the French Open and titles at Indian Wells, Doha, Miami, Stuttgart and Rome. 

Known more for being the best clay player in the world – she owns a 37-4 record on the surface the last three seasons – Swiatek's dominance has started to extend to the hard courts. She made her deepest run at the Australian Open earlier this year, making the semifinals, and will now compete for her first hard court Grand Slam on Saturday against Ons Jabeur.  

“On clay, I feel just perfect,” Swiatek said, “but for me, actually winning when I’m not feeling perfectly, it’s the best kind of thing and best feeling. The satisfaction is pretty big.” 

With another victory, Swiatek will become the first woman since Angelique Kerber to win two Grand Slams in a single season. Kerber won the Australian Open and U.S. Open in 2016.  

“I just feel that the work that I’ve put in has paid off,” Swiatek said. “I feel like even though I lost in Toronto and Cincinnati pretty early, you’re going to kind of have your chances and you have to be ready to use them and not hold on to the losses you had. So, I’m pretty happy that with this tournament, I’m fresh mentally to use the chances.” 

Ons Jabeur Earns Second Straight U.S. Open Final Appearance 

Before Thursday, few were playing better than Caroline Garcia. The 28-year-old has experienced a resurgence in her career this summer. Rising from No. 79 in the world to being the only person to beat Swiatek on clay this season en route to a title in Poland.  

After a loss in Toronto, Garcia won eight in a row in Cincinnati for her second title in three events. She then started this U.S. Open by winning her first five matches in straight sets, giving her 18 wins in her last 19 matches. Rightfully, she was favored over Jabeur for their semifinal matchup.  

But Jabeur dominated what appeared to be a shaky Garcia, who made four early errors to get broken right away. Jabeur put in a dominant performance, winning 6-1, 6-3. It’s the second straight Grand Slam appearance for Jabeur, who fell to Elena Rybakina in the Wimbledon finale earlier in July. Now, Jabeur feels better equipped to handle the emotions of playing in a Grand Slam final. 

“It feels more real, to be honest with you,” Jabeur said. “At Wimbledon, I was kind of just living the dream, and I couldn’t believe it. Now just, I hope I’m getting used to it … Now, maybe I know what to do.” 

U.S. Open Women's Final Odds Breakdown 

If Swiatek wins, it will be the third major where the pre-tournament favorite was victorious. 

Ashleigh Barty was +275 and took home the Australian Open title. Swiatek was favored as low as even money at some places for the French Open and came into the U.S. Open favored at +300. 

Only Rybakina’s victory at Wimbledon as a +10000 longshot was the only major where the favorite didn’t triumph.  

Swiatek is a -180 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s title match. 

Jabeur is a +150 underdog and entered the U.S. Open at +1700 to win the event. 

Our pick is Swiatek. She has been the favorite all along and we think she'll continue her winning ways.

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Bryce Derouin

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