Back The Lib Dems In The Brecon and Radnorshire By-Election
Britain has a new Prime Minister and after Boris Johnson's radical Cabinet reshuffle, the best political betting sites expect an imminent General Election. At 6/5, only one firm are offering better than evens about an election occurring before the end of 2019. Before that, there is the small matter of the Brecon and Radnorshire By Election - which could reduce Johnson’s majority to just 1.
Recall petition leaves Tories very vulnerable
This by-election was called after the Tory MP Chris Davies faced a recall petition over a false expenses claim. Davies is standing again but the betting signals are grim - the Lib Dems’ Jane Dodd is rated 1/20 to win with 888Sport, compared to 10/1 with bet365 about the Tory.
No surprise, given that a recent NumbersCrunchers poll recorded the Lib Dems on 43% - 15% ahead of the Tories with the Brexit Party third on 20%. This rural Welsh seat was a Lib Dem stronghold from 1987 to 2015 and, if they are to recover the national position held prior to that historic low, this is a must win.
The national significance should not be understated. It is not only Johnson’s first electoral test but also new Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson. An expected thrashing for Labour, polling at 8%, will pile further pressure Jeremy Corbyn. Moreover, the result will be measured in terms of what it says about Brexit. For this constituency voted perfectly in line with the nation in 2016 - 52-48 to Leave.
Indeed the dynamics of this Welsh battle will play out again all over rural and suburban England in a General Election. A Tory-held marginal where the Lib Dems are the only danger, and poised to sweep the Remainer vote. The heavier the defeat, the more risky that general election plan becomes.
National poll bounce offers Tories hope
On the other hand, weekend polls showed a marked Boris-boost. New leaders usually get a bounce so it would be wrong to draw deep longer term conclusions, but clearly the Tories are in a better place today than they were when the NCP poll was taken.
That 15% deficit has probably shrunk a bit and I expect the Brexit Party’s poll share to further disintegrate over the coming weeks now there is an avowed no deal PM in place. Unless or until he fails to deliver his Brexit promises, most of these voters will give Johnson a chance.
Given that the Brexit Party polled at 20%, there is every chance that the Tories win this seat at a general election later this year, following an electoral pact between the two parties. This week, however, their vote will be split, handing the Lib Dems an easy win as the odds suggest.
That the Tory candidate is damaged by scandal surely takes an upset out of the equation.
Lib Dems sure to monopolize Remainer vote
We saw at the Euros how Remainer opinion coalesced late around the Lib Dems, once these voters properly considered tactics and implications. It is already factored into the Brecon dynamics because the party is already strong there and 40% really isn't a big ask. I reckon Remainer voters will be better motivated to turnout, offering a further edge. 50% is just about within range but the overwhelmingly likelihood is somewhere in the forties. 11/10 offered with Ladbrokes about 40-50% is a solid bet.
A big Lib Dem win could have a profound impact on events over the coming months. When successful historically, mid-term by-election upsets were their currency. A rare opportunity to be heard - to be the headline and not an afterthought. This is a chance for Swinson to immediately assume national importance and to put their anti-Brexit brand brand on display.
I have big expectations for Swinson. There has never been a better time to become Lib Dem leader, as Tories and Labour abandon the centre ground. They are becoming successfully defined as the Remain Party. A young, liberal woman is the perfect contrast to Johnson and Corbyn. It would not surprise me if they are soon polling around 25%.
If so, there are many more gains to be made across the Tory heartlands. The Brexit dynamics of Brecon will play out again in dozens of seats with similar demographics and electoral history. Con-LD marginals will be the key battleground in determining whether the Tories can win an overall majority. This result will help frame the narrative for any looming national election or referendum and will shape the political betting odds going forward. The stakes have rarely felt higher for a by-election.
Recommended Betting Sites
100% Welcome Bonus up to £50 Promo Code: TONY5018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply In order to activate this bonus on the personal TonyBet account, please, enter the bonus code TONY50 when a deposit is made and wager your deposit 10 times on betting markets with odds of at least 1.65 within 30 days. This offer is available to new players who made the first deposit. All players must be 18+ years old and of a required legal age to gamble. Odd/even, no action (bets made on both sides of the same bet), cancelled bets, replicated bets and bets that have had their odds equated to 1 are not included into the bonus wagering.
Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus
Bet £10 Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+. New UK customers only. Min bet £10 to receive £10 Free Bet (placed and settled 35 days from registration). Min odds of 3/5. Free Bet credited at qualifying bet settlement and placed within 35 days. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly, www.begambleaware.org - Full Terms Apply
Get up to £100 in Free Bets + up to 100% in Boosts18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, New customers only. Deposit + bet £20-£100. Must Deposit £50 and opt in for marketing preferences for Boosts. Boosts credited 24 hours after deposit. Full T&Cs apply. Begambleware.org
Open Account Offer - Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365
Bet £10, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: €10, max €10 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement.System bets no eligible. Click to see full T&Cs
EXCLUSIVE: Bet £15, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit,: £10, max £10 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Neteller,Skrill and Paypal not eligible. T&Cs apply
Bet £10, Get £10 + 50 Extra Spins18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply New customer offer; Place first £10 bet on sports with 3 legs at odds of 1.3 or greater per leg; Free Bet and Extra Spins credited after the qualifying bet has settled; Free Multiple Bet must contain 3 legs at odds of 1.3 or greater per leg; Free Bet and Extra Spin stakes not returned; No wagering requirements on winnings; £200 max win; T&C’s apply; 18+
Bet £20, Get £1018+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply 18+ New Customers Only. Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is £20. Customers who deposit using Neteller, Paysafe, Skrill or Skril 1-Tap will not be eligible for any free bet offer.BeGambleaware.org
Bet £10, Get £20 in Free Bets18+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply Qualifying bet must be min odds of 1/2 and cannot be placed in-play or cashed out. E.g. Place a £10bet at minimum odds of 1/2. When that bet has been settled, you will be given a free £5 fixed odds bet to use that day. New customers only. See full Ts&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware
Stay In The Loop With Free Bets, Insider Tips & More!
Live Betting. Sports Promos. Sent Weekly.