Everton Given 73% Chance Of Survival By Bookies Despite Points Deduction
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The 10-point deduction handed to Everton for breaking financial rules threatens the Goodison Park club’s place in the Premier League.
Everton fans had already braced themselves for a fight against Premier League relegation after a slow start to the season, but they are now prepared for a desperate scrap against the drop.
Sean Dyche’s team now sit second-bottom of the table following the removal of 10 points.
Burnley are now the only side below the Toffees on goal difference.
Betting sites have priced Everton at 4/11 to stay up Premier League this season, giving them a 73% chance of survival.
There is good reason to believe the Toffees can stay in the English top flight despite the hefty punishment meted out to them.
The Buffer Beneath The Toffees
Everton stand a good chance of avoiding the drop largely due to the poor quality of the rival teams around them in the Premier League table.
Bet365 have priced Sheffield United at 10/3 to stay up, making them the favourites to make an immediate return to the Championship this season.
Paul Heckingbottom’s team have won just one of their 12 fixtures so far and have conceded an incredible 31 goals in the process. That makes their defence the leakiest in the division.
Luton are available at 3/1 to survive. The Hatters currently find themselves outside the bottom three and there are signs they are adapting to life in the top flight.
Indeed, Luton were competitive in their last two fixtures against Liverpool and Manchester United before the international break with Rob Edwards settling on a counter-attacking style.
Burnley have been priced at 6/5 to stay up, although this doesn’t reflect their current position at the foot of the Premier League table.
Vincent Kompany’s team have lost 10 of their 12 matches and can’t stop making mistakes in dangerous areas. That could be the thing that sends them down.
Bournemouth are priced at 1/3 to stay up after a recent upturn in form while Fulham are 1/10 on football betting sites. Among this bunch, Everton should be good enough to finish 17th or higher.
The Dominic Calvert-Lewin effect
Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s return to form and fitness has done a lot to change the landscape for Everton in recent weeks.
With Calvert-Lewin on the sidelines, Everton lacked a natural attacking focal point. Arnaut Danjuma was even used through the middle in the first few matches of the season.
Everton have won five of the eight matches Calvert-Lewin has started this season.
The 26-year-old has netted three goals in nine league appearances, but that doesn’t quantify his importance to the Toffees and Calvert-Lewin gives Everton balance.
He gives the wide players - usually Jack Harrison and Dwight McNeil - a target to hit with their crossing and Abdoulaye Doucoure a frontman to play off and around.
Dyche-ball Taking Root
It might not be the most attractive style of play, but ‘Dyche-ball’ can be highly effective and that is proving to be the case for Everton in recent matches.
Dyche has moulded Everton in his own image. They play with a physicality that is reminiscent of how Burnley played under Dyche, but there is also an intelligence in the way they attack down the wings.
Last season, Everton struggled for firepower in front of goal. Only Wolves scored fewer goals than the Toffees, but it’s been a different story this term as Dyche has unleashed his team’s attacking potential.
Everton have only failed to find the back of the net once in their last nine games - and that was away to Liverpool.
They scored three times away to Crystal Palace before the international break too, so are always worth a punt to find the net on betting apps.
In terms of their Expected Goals (xG) per 90 minutes, Everton are actually underperforming so far this season.
They are ranked 10th for xG, which suggests their results could improve even further if they can start taking more of their chances.
The 10-point deduction will test Everton and push them closer to the bottom three, but Dyche has put in place the foundations for the Merseyside outfit to still be in the Premier League by the start of next season.
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