French Presidential Election Odds: Fourth Time Lucky For Marine Le Pen?

There are many elections to analyse and wager on with betting sites before next May’s French Presidential Election, but none are sending shockwaves through European capitals like this one. 

According to opinion polls, Marine Le Pen is on course to beat any of her rivals. Perhaps by some distance.

It is an extraordinary story, which illustrates the collapse of the centre ground in French politics and the profound challenge facing Western democracies.

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Far-Right No Longer Unelectable 

Le Pen’s Le Front Nationale (LFN) is unarguably ‘far-right’ and the heir to a fascist tradition in France dating back through the world wars. 

For decades, whether led by Marine or her father Jean-Marie, it was generally deemed unelectable. The current situation represents a remarkable transformation for the party and a personal comeback for her.

When Jean-Marie qualified for the second, head-to-head round in 2002, he was trounced 82-18 by Jacques Chirac. Voters from the left forged a tactical coalition with the dominant centre-right to defeat their common enemy.

French Presidential Election Odds:

Taking over from her father in 2012, Marine set about rebranding LFN but only came in a distant third. In the two subsequent elections, she made the run-off, only to be comprehensively beaten by Emmanuel Macron by margins of 66-34 in 2017 and 59-41 in 2022. 

Steady progress, for sure, but the so-called ‘Republican Front’ against her remained intact.

Evidently, no more. Now polling well above 50% represents huge progress. Moreover, this is after she was found guilty of misusing European Parliament funds. 

It was thought that an electoral ban might rule her out of the 2027 election, but the ban has been reduced, enabling her to run.

Le Pen Near-Certain To Qualify For The Run-Off

Can she sustain this strong position? Bookmakers and betting apps aren’t totally convinced, rating Le Pen around a 6/4 chance.

Those odds may sound short, but less so once considering the French electoral system. 

The top two candidates from the first round will progress, and on current polling, she is effectively certain to qualify, barring some unforeseen disaster. Her share of around 35% is rock-solid and at least ten points above what will be required. 

There are no odds available on that first round qualification, but we can safely assume she would be no more than 1/10. In which case, odds of 6/4 imply she would start as an outsider to win the run-off.

That isn’t what these latest polls imply against anyone, especially in one case.

Jean-Luc Melenchon represents the opposite, far-left pole in French politics. 

He finished a close fourth and third in the last two presidential elections, beaten by less than 2% by Le Pen in the first round. 

He is the overwhelming choice of young voters. However, in a head-to-head contest between the pair, projections show him being thrashed by huge margins.

Melenchon could very well finish second and face Le Pen. In which case, she becomes a very short odds-on favourite. 

Alternatively, the French left and centre might find a way to back a more electable candidate. 

Their polls aren’t great either, but in the cases of Edouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal and Raphael Glucksmann, there is much greater scope for improvement. 

None has anything like the fixed brand of Le Pen or Melenchon. A strong campaign and some good debate performances could yet be their making.

Beware Le Pen’s Previous Underperformance

It is worth recalling the trajectory of Le Pen’s polling in previous elections. In 2022, her share dropped sharply towards the end, as the choice for voters was crystallised. 

Two weeks from polling day, her average from six polls was 46.75%. Her final result was 41.5%. In 2017, across a similar timeline, her share fell from around 39% to 33.5%.

Consider this broader trend regarding election betting. Let’s label it ‘reflexive opposition’ and ‘late engagement’. 

When a government is unpopular, when there is public discontent, there is a tendency to reflexively coalesce behind the most obvious, famous, mentioned alternative.

This could be Reform in the UK during the current Labour government, or Labour during the last Conservative government. 

In both cases, they end up underperforming in actual elections once they are more scrutinised and voters become more engaged and consider alternatives.

In short, much can change. There are enough votes in the centre to prevent a Le Pen v Melenchon run-off. 

Not least over foreign policy. Whilst both have downplayed historic pro-Russia positions, with European security on a knife-edge and Macron playing a leading role in defending Ukraine, these divisions will be emphasised and, depending on real-world events, could become critical. The campaign is already awash with alleged Russian disinformation.

With that in mind, there is mileage in taking speculative bets at bigger odds, in the hope that they become competitive later in the race. 

18/1 about Gabriel Attal makes some appeal, and even more so 33/1 about Raphael Glucksmann, both with Star Sports.

Recommended Bets

Back Raphael Glucksmann @ 33/1 (Star Sports)