French Presidential Election Odds: How Bettors Should Navigate A Wide, Divided field
France is midway through the last big set of local elections before the 2027 presidential election.
Outside the UK and US, this tends to be the most popular and liquid of all worldwide election markets on betting sites.
The incumbent Emmanuel Macron is ineligible to run for a third term.
Wide First-Round Field Will Be Whittled Down To Two
As with these local elections, the presidential election will almost certainly be a two-round affair, because no candidate will reach 50% in the first round. The highest first-round share this century was 31%.
The first round involves a wide list, reflecting the breadth of ideology in French politics.
If the first reflects ideological purity, the second involves a vast amount of tactical compromise, as the first choices of around half the electorate will be eliminated.
French Presidential Election Odds:
New Parties Can Make Instant Impact
This process is further complicated by the unique characteristics of the French party system.
In recent years, as the main parties of centre-right and centre-left have diminished, the creation of new parties which are little more than vehicles for high-profile individuals, has become normal practice.
Until 2017 and what might be labelled the ‘age of populism’, French elections were dominated by the Republican (centre-right) and Socialist (centre-left) parties, with Le Front National (far right) playing an occasional, minor role.
Then Macron, formerly a minister in the Socialist government, started a new party to support his presidential ambitions - En Marche, now known as Renaissance.
In 2022, Reconquete, a new far-right party created to support Eric Zemmour, showed up well in polls for a long way.
Next year, two more newcomers, Horizons and Place Publique, are set to play prominent roles.
They were formed by Edouard Philippe and Raphael Glucksmann respectively.
Think In Terms Of Lanes
With so many parties, candidates and nuanced ideological positions to choose from (only one of whom is currently polling above 20%), a useful way to understand and strategise betting on this election is to think in terms of 'lanes' or 'blocs'.
As the contest nears and the polling trends become clearer, voters tend to coalesce around the best-placed choice from their lane or faction in the first round.
Then, in the second, they are forced to choose between two, even if their lane has been eliminated.
This thread, analysing the first round of results in the local elections, illustrates the various conundrums.
I did a live thread Sunday on the results of 1st round of French local elections.
— Taniel (@Taniel) March 17, 2026
The big question was: Would parties that have the ability to reach this Sunday's runoff (anyone with 10+%) ally? Especially between center-left and radical left. What we now know, in next post: https://t.co/LptY1Ct4zk
Le Front Nationale Dominate Far Right
Whilst LFN are not alone on the far right, they dominate it.
Their likeliest candidate, Jordan Bardella (2/1 favourite on betting apps for the presidency across the board), is polling around 36%, compared to just 4% for Zemmour.
Long-term party leader Marine Le Pen is currently challenging a conviction for embezzlement which bars her from standing. She made the last two presidential run-offs.
Melenchon Ahead Again Among Far Left
Although yet to make a presidential run-off, Jean-Luc Melenchon of La France Insoumise (LFI) was highly competitive in the last two elections (scoring 22% and 20%), overtaking the centre-left.
There is a smaller Communist party (PCF) led by Fabien Roussel and another potential rival in Francois Ruffin of Debout! (whom Melenchon forced out of LFI).
Melenchon, 74, is yet to be confirmed as the 2027 candidate, but is trading at single-figure odds apart from Ladbrokes, which offers 14/1.
Can A Very Wide Centre Be Defined As A Lane?
Here’s where these definitions become problematic and confusing. There are vast ideological differences between the range from centre-right to centre-left, but they do share an important commonality.
In the likely event that the far-right LFN makes the run-off, supporters of this wide lane tend to overwhelmingly support their opponent, so long as it is one of the centre parties - in contrast to Melenchon, who is thrashed in head-to-head polls against Bardella.
Therefore, the race to be the top 'centre' party in the first round becomes critical, as does their ability to beat the far left into second place.
Given that LFN lost the last two-run offs by wide margins (32% in 2017 and 18% in 2022), this candidate will probably start favourite in the run-off.
The centre-right lane looks between Philippe (Horizons) and whoever represents the Republicans. Currently, Bruno Retailleau is seen as their frontrunner.
In the centre, Gabriel Attal is president of Renaissance and expected to succeed Macron as their candidate.
Centre-Left In Crisis
The centre-left is divided to the point of probable ruin. In parliamentary elections, Glucksmann (Place Publique) formed a pact with the socialists, which has some potential to be repeated at the presidential election. The Greens (Les Ecologistes) could enter this picture, too.
However, as the ongoing municipal elections illustrate, candidates and voters are bitterly divided over whether to ally with, or transfer votes to the far-left LFI.
As it stands, therefore, the likeliest run-off is between the LFN candidate (probably Bardella) and either a candidate from the centre-right or centre.
Philippe is a 4/1 chance with BoyleSports, while Retailleau is at 11/1 and Attal at 20/1, (both Star Sports).
Who do you think will win the French presidential election next year? Let us know your thoughts in the comment box below!
