India vs Pakistan Cricket World Cup Tips: Latest Odds, Analysis and Betting Picks
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When: Saturday, October 14, 9:30am BST
Where: Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad
Watch: Sky Sports
Best Odds: India 4/9, Pakistan 19/10
It’s back again! Just weeks after they faced off in the recent 2023 Asia Cup, champions of that tournament India are preparing for another chapter in their fascinating rivalry with Pakistan, one which they have dominated in recent years.
Both teams have largely done what was expected of them by winning their first two matches, though things haven’t entirely gone their way from start to finish.
India got past an early scare with the bat against Australia, whilst Pakistan weren’t in full control of their win to the Netherlands nor were they favoured to defeat Sri Lanka at the halfway point of their most recent game.
A crowd of more than 100,000 people is expected to pack the vast stands of the Narendra Modi Stadium cauldron in Ahmedabad for a game between two sides that many predict will be in the final four come November.
It will be another busy weekend for cricket betting sites and we’ve taken a look at markets offered by one of our favourites to hopefully point you towards a profitable Saturday.
The Numbers That Matter
- India won all seven ODI World Cup matches against Pakistan
- Five of India’s last 12 ODI opening partnerships were 100+ runs
- Haris Rauf has dismissed Rohit Sharma twice from 20 balls in ODIs
- KL Rahul scored 111* and 57 in his only two ODIs against Afghanistan
India To Go 3-0 Up
Proudly holding the number one mantle in all three formats on the ICC rankings, India are warm favourites with betting sites for several reasons.
A 16-4 home record since the start of 2022 illustrates the significant advantage they carry into this tournament as the host nations, and indeed their players have felt right at home, with four different batters posting 40+ scores and four bowlers collecting at least three wickets each.
The number one ranking in ODIs will be handed back to Pakistan if they lose here, but the visitors have a lot more vulnerabilities in this format than India.
Imam-ul-Haq, Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan all have poor records against India, whilst Shadab Khan’s ODI bowling average of 72 against India is a key concern with wicket-taking spinners so valuable at World Cups.
The absence of Naseem Shah is telling, but even if Shaheen Shah Afridi can make an early breakthrough, the Indians showed against Australia that the match is not won in the first 10 overs. India, meanwhile, has bowling talent the likes of which is perhaps unrivalled.
Jadeja and Kuldeep are two of those four bowlers with 3+ wickets each, and whilst Hardik Pandya has been unacceptably expensive, his two wickets against Afghanistan (Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Azmatullah Omarzai) both came at periods where the opponents were beginning to take control of the match.
Pakistan have every right to be confident after completing a World Cup record run chase against Sri Lanka at the weekend, but the scars of the 228-run Asia Cup loss to India have only just started healing.
Tip: India to win - 4/9 with Bet365
Scintillating Shafique A Threat To The Status Quo
He’s been on planet earth for little more than two decades, but 23-year-old Abdullah Shafique is showing maturity and composure well beyond his years.
One of the two opening slots in Pakistan’s order appears to be his for the remainder of the tournament as, on his World Cup debut against Sri Lanka, he did what predecessor Fakhar Zaman couldn’t do in nine attempts: record a World Cup century.
Better still, he did it under the immense pressure of needing to chase 345 at a venue he had never visited.
85% of his career ODI runs have come from his only two appearances in the last five months, leaving many wondering why they persisted with Fakhar Zaman for so long.
Shafique is therefore well equipped to handle this high-stakes game in a hostile atmosphere, particularly as he doesn’t have any ghosts of past games against India to haunt him. He can start with a clean slate in his first meeting with India in any format.
Some of his colleagues have poor records against Indian bowlers which could make Shafique an appealing prospect at 7/2 with betting apps.
Tip: Abdullah Shafique Top Pakistan Scorer - 7/2 with Bet365
But What About His Opening Partner?
Fakhar Zaman’s ODI career might not be on the sidelines for too long if Imam-ul-Haq’s struggles continue.
After a couple of promising innings against Sri Lanka in Hambantota before the Asia Cup, Imam fell into a lean period that has seen him dismissed for fewer than 20 runs in five of his last six ODIs, including scores of 15 and 12 in their wins over the Netherlands and Sri Lanka.
Couple that with scores of 2, 10, 7 and 9 from his four ODIs against India and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him making another paltry contribution, particularly as it was Jasprit Bumrah who got him cheaply in the Asia Cup.
Bet365 has some interesting ‘player performance’ markets which act similarly to fantasy cricket, where players are awarded one point per run, 10 per catch and 20 per wicket.
Imam takes just one catch every five games in the ODI format, so it’s most likely that this simply becomes a bet for him to score 33 or fewer runs. He’ll have to buck a couple of trends to disappoint us here.
Tip: Imam-ul-Haq Under 33.5 PP Points - 5/6 with Bet365
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